Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Picks and Predictions June 22nd 2025

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Blue Jays’ Dominance Over White Sox on the Line in Rubber Match

The visiting Chicago White Sox have a rare opportunity on Sunday afternoon: a chance to win a series in Toronto. To do so, they’ll have to overcome a long history of struggles against a Toronto Blue Jays team that has had their number for years. After splitting the first two games, the rubber match will decide if the trend of Blue Jays’ dominance continues or if the White Sox can finally turn the tables.

A Lopsided Rivalry

To say the Blue Jays have controlled this matchup recently would be an understatement. Coming into Sunday, Toronto holds a commanding 13-2 record against the White Sox since June of 2022, including a 9-2 record at home. It’s a level of dominance that can create a psychological hurdle for any opponent. However, the White Sox broke through with a 7-1 victory in the series opener on Friday, giving them the belief that this time can be different. A series win on the road against a team they’ve struggled so mightily with would be a massive confidence boost for a Chicago club that has lost nine of its last ten games overall.

The All-Important Bullpen Reset

Perhaps the most significant development from Saturday’s 7-1 Blue Jays victory was not the score itself, but the performances of the starting pitchers. Both teams came into the game with severely overworked bullpens. The Blue Jays had used seven different relievers on Friday, while the White Sox had used five after a grueling doubleheader on Thursday. Getting deep starts was not just a hope; it was a necessity.

Both starters delivered. Toronto’s Jose Berrios tossed 7 2/3 brilliant innings to earn the win, and Chicago’s Aaron Civale, while not as successful on the scoreboard, gutted out seven innings to save his team’s relief corps. “He was exactly what we needed,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said of Berrios. “That’s how you answer back after a tough game.”

White Sox manager Pedro Grifol was equally appreciative of his starter. “After a tough start… he did a great job of settling down,” Grifol said of Civale. “And to cover seven innings with where we are with our bullpen is huge.” Thanks to those efforts, both managers will have their full arsenal of relievers available for Sunday’s deciding game. How and when they deploy those arms is a key strategic element, a topic often explored in our expert betting guide.

A Pitching Mismatch on Paper

Sunday’s starting pitching matchup appears to heavily favor the home team, at least based on history. The Blue Jays will send out veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt (7-3, 3.75 ERA). Bassitt has been a White Sox killer throughout his career, posting an impressive 5-2 record with a sparkling 2.94 ERA in nine starts against them. He brings a clear statistical and mental edge to the mound.

The White Sox will counter with righty Adrian Houser (2-2, 2.15 ERA), whose history against Toronto is the polar opposite. In two career starts against the Blue Jays, Houser has been shelled, giving up 11 runs in just 10 1/3 innings for a 9.58 ERA. He will need to completely reverse that trend to give his team a chance. This stark contrast in historical performance will be a major focus on the scores and odds board.

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Bo Knows Power

One of the hitters Houser will have to be most careful with is Bo Bichette. The Blue Jays’ shortstop is in a power groove, with three home runs in his last five games. He set the tone immediately on Saturday, launching the very first pitch he saw from Aaron Civale for a leadoff home run. It was a calculated, aggressive approach that his manager loved to see.

“Bo can do that, he is that talented a hitter,” Schneider said. “The leadoff spot is a tricky one, because you’re probably going to get a first-pitch fastball. You have to be on time and do your homework.”

Chicago’s Youth Movement

While the White Sox are struggling in the standings, they are using this time to get a look at their young players. In this series alone, two different relief pitchers—Jake Palisch and Wikelman Gonzalez—have made their major league debuts. It’s a sign that the organization is in an evaluation phase, looking to see which players will be a part of their future. This focus on development contrasts with the win-now mentality of other MLB teams in a playoff race. To see who our experts think will win this rubber match, check out our daily MLB picks.

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Mike Williams
Mike Williams | Handicapper

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Mike uses his strong sports knowledge to analyze all the angles to find the most profitable wagers. Iron Mike handicaps MLB, college football, NFL, NBA, and NCAA basketball. I'm an actual sports and gambling junkie!

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