Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Predictions May 16th 2025

Red-Hot Tigers Visit Blue Jays in AL Rivalry Weekend Clash

The Detroit Tigers arrive in Canada for Rivalry Weekend carrying the best record in the American League and a ton of momentum. After sweeping the Boston Red Sox in dramatic fashion—two walk-off wins to close the set—the Tigers have their sights set on the Toronto Blue Jays, who continue to tread water near the .500 mark.

First pitch for Friday’s opener is set for 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre, where the Blue Jays hope that a return home, plus some recently discovered power, can help turn their season around.

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Detroit’s Secret Weapon: Depth and Confidence

Detroit (29-15) has quietly built one of the most balanced and cohesive teams in baseball, and it’s thanks in part to a “next-man-up” approach from manager A.J. Hinch.

The Tigers don’t rely on one or two superstars—they win games through situational hitting, bullpen depth, and well-timed roster moves. The latest example? Justyn-Henry Malloy, who delivered a walk-off single as a pinch hitter in Wednesday’s 6-5 win over Boston.

“There’s a feeling of momentum,” Malloy said postgame. “And a feeling of wanting to contribute.”

That’s been the tone all year in Detroit. From regular contributors like Riley Greene to utility call-ups like Akil Baddoo, the Tigers have found ways to generate impact from across the 40-man roster.

“We’re going to use our players,” Hinch said. “If someone can help us win one game, that’s all the justification we need.”

Blue Jays Still Searching for Consistency

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays (21-23) continue to struggle when it comes to maintaining a winning rhythm. Thursday’s 8-3 loss to Tampa Bay was just the latest missed opportunity. Each time they’ve reached a .500 record—at 12-12, 16-16, 20-20, and 21-21—they’ve failed to build on it.

Thursday was also the first time the roof was open at Rogers Centre this season. The result? Seven home runs in the game, three by Toronto.

“We’ve been saying it for weeks—the home runs would come,” manager John Schneider said. “And they did. But it’s not about the roof—those balls were well-hit.”

Toronto got home runs from Addison Barger, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Nathan Lukes, pushing their total to 19 homers in May, already four more than the 15 they hit in all of April.

Still, the Jays’ biggest concern isn’t offense—it’s their pitching. Toronto arms surrendered 20 earned runs over three games against Tampa Bay.

Kevin Gausman, once a stabilizer in the rotation, gave up three homers and six runs over 5 2/3 innings Thursday.

“You need offense to win,” Gausman said. “But this team goes as far as our pitching takes us.”

Friday’s Pitching Matchup: Flaherty vs. Francis

Friday’s series opener features a contrasting matchup:

• Jack Flaherty (1-5, 4.61 ERA) takes the ball for the Tigers. Don’t let the win-loss record fool you—Flaherty has pitched better than it suggests. He’s also been dominant against Toronto in his career, going 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA in four starts.
• Bowden Francis (2-5, 5.40 ERA) counters for the Blue Jays. He pitched just 1 1/3 scoreless innings in his only prior appearance vs. Detroit but has been inconsistent overall in 2024.

With the Tigers averaging 5.1 runs per game over their last 10, Francis will need to deliver his best outing of the season.

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Tigers Make Roster Moves Ahead of Series

Detroit continues to be active with its roster. Before Wednesday’s game, the club optioned struggling third baseman Jace Jung to Triple-A Toledo after hitting just .111. In his place, Akil Baddoo was recalled and could see time in the outfield this weekend.

Baddoo, who hit .238 with 9 home runs in limited action last season, brings energy and speed—two traits that fit perfectly into Detroit’s brand of baseball.

What’s at Stake This Weekend?

For the Tigers, this series is about staying hot and widening their lead in the AL Central. With Cleveland and Minnesota also playing good baseball, every series counts.

For the Blue Jays, this weekend could be pivotal. A poor showing might finally push the front office to re-evaluate their rotation and bullpen. A strong weekend, though, could be the spark they’ve been searching for all season.

Key Stats and Trends

• Tigers have won 3 straight, including 2 walk-offs vs. Boston.
• Detroit leads the AL with a 29-15 record.
• Flaherty has a 2.35 ERA in 4 career starts vs. Toronto.
• Blue Jays are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
• Bowden Francis has a 6.12 ERA at home this season.
• Toronto has hit 19 HRs in May, up from 15 in April.

Want over/under picks or player HR prop tips? Check out our Expert MLB Betting Guide.

FAQs

Who is starting Friday for the Tigers and Blue Jays?
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs. Bowden Francis (TOR).

What’s Detroit’s record right now?
The Tigers are 29-15, leading the American League.

What changes did Detroit make before this series?
Jace Jung was optioned to Triple-A; Akil Baddoo was recalled.

Are the Blue Jays hitting more home runs now?
Yes, Toronto has hit 19 homers in May, already more than their April total.

What has been Toronto’s biggest issue this season?
Inconsistent pitching. The rotation and bullpen have both struggled at times.

Where can I find game picks and predictions for this series?
Check our MLB Picks Page for matchup analysis and expert picks.