Buehler Seeks to Snap Slump vs. Nationals

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox July 5th 2025

The Boston Red Sox will visit the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on Saturday, July 5, 2025. The game is set for an afternoon start at 4:05 PM and will be broadcast on MASN. The weather forecast predicts a warm day with a clear sky and a calm crosswind. The Red Sox, managed by Alex Cora, hold a 44-45 record this season. They are 6 games back in the AL East. On the road, they have a 19-25 record. Walker Buehler will take the mound for Boston, carrying an ERA of 6.45 and a WHIP of 1.58. The Nationals, led by Dave Martinez, have a 37-51 record and are 14 games back in the NL East. They have struggled at home with an 18-26 record. Mitchell Parker will start for Washington with an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.35.

Red Sox vs Nationals Key Information

Sport: Baseball
Teams: Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Venue: Nationals Park in Washington, DC
Date: Saturday, July 5, 2025
Betting Odds: Red Sox Moneyline -109, Nationals Moneyline -109, Red Sox Runline -1.5 (+140), Nationals Runline +1.5 (-169), Total Over 10.0 (-107), Total Under 10.0 (-113)

The Red Sox Can Win If…

The Boston Red Sox are coming off a big win against the Washington Nationals, finishing with an 11-2 score. Lucas Giolito was strong on the mound, pitching 7 2/3 innings and allowing only one run. Trevor Story led the offense with four hits, including a home run, and drove in four runs.

The Red Sox have shown they can hit well this season. They rank 6th in batting average and 5th in on-base percentage. Their ability to get on base and score runs will be key in their next game.

Walker Buehler will start for the Red Sox, looking to improve his record. Despite his high ERA, Buehler has the experience to handle tough situations. With support from hitters like Jarren Duran and Alex Bregman, the Red Sox have a solid chance to win this game.

The Nationals Can Win If…

The Washington Nationals are looking to bounce back after a tough 11-2 loss to the Boston Red Sox. In their recent win against the Detroit Tigers, the Nationals showed strong hitting with 15 hits and two home runs. James Wood stood out, going 5-for-5 with a home run and two RBIs.

The Nationals have a solid batting average of .246, ranking them 9th in the league. Their ability to hit doubles is noteworthy, with 144 on the season, placing them 8th. The team also ranks 6th in stolen bases, showcasing their speed on the bases.

Mitchell Parker will be on the mound for the Nationals with an ERA of 4.63. His performance will be key against the Red Sox’s Walker Buehler, who has struggled with a 6.45 ERA. With strong hitters like CJ Abrams and James Wood in the lineup, the Nationals have a good chance to take advantage of Buehler’s pitching.

The Lean

The moneyline for the Red Sox and Nationals is even at -109. The Red Sox have a higher batting average and on-base percentage, which gives them an edge. My model projects the Red Sox to win with a score of 6-4. Based on these factors, the recommendation is to pick the Red Sox to win straight up.

The total for the game is set at 10.0. The Red Sox have a solid offensive lineup, and the Nationals’ pitching has a high ERA of 5.16. My model projects a total score of 10, which aligns with the set line. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the over 10.0 for this game.

Boston right-hander Walker Buehler will look to snap a six-start slump when the Red Sox take on the Nationals in the middle game of a three-game series. After a dominant 11–2 win on Independence Day, Boston hopes Buehler can regain the form that once made him one of the league’s most feared pitchers. For a full breakdown of tonight’s matchup, see our MLB preview.

Buehler aims to regain form

Buehler enters this outing with a 5–6 record and a 6.45 ERA, having allowed 38 hits and 19 walks over his last 26 innings, while striking out just 23. His most recent start against the Blue Jays saw him surrender four runs on four hits, including two home runs, over four innings. According to our expert MLB betting guide, adjustments in his pitch sequencing and command of the strike zone will be key to snapping this skid.

Pitching matchup: Buehler vs. Parker

Opposing Buehler will be Washington lefty Mitchell Parker (5–8, 4.63 ERA), who last went five-plus innings allowing three runs on six hits in a no-decision against the Angels. Parker has never faced Boston, adding an element of unpredictability. For insight into which side the experts favor, check our latest MLB picks.

Red Sox offense providing support

Boston’s lineup showed life on Friday, with Trevor Story going 4-for-5 with a two-run homer, four RBIs and three runs scored. Jarren Duran also chipped in two hits and three RBIs, raising his average to .300 over the last five games. To see which handicappers are performing best this season, visit our leaderboard of top MLB handicappers.

Nationals look to respond

Washington avoided a complete blowout thanks to Daylen Lile’s ninth-inning RBI double, extending his hit streak to 11 games. Catcher Keibert Ruiz returned from the injured list, while Trevor Williams landed on the IL with an elbow strain. The Nationals will need timely hitting and bullpen stability to challenge Buehler early.

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Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions July 5th 2025