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Mets Try to Clinch Series Behind Manaea, Await Nimmo’s Status
The New York Mets wrap up a critical three-game set against the Washington Nationals Thursday afternoon at Nationals Park, with first pitch set for 4:05 PM ET. Both teams split the first two games, and New York is looking to stay in the hunt for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Your Edge Starts with Our Picks
Handicapping Game-day intel
All eyes are on Brandon Nimmo, who left Wednesday’s game with a stiff neck and is considered day-to-day. If he’s out, the Mets will need others to step up in this rubber match.
Pitching Matchup:
- Mets: Sean Manaea (1-1, 4.78 ERA)
- Nationals: MacKenzie Gore (5-12, 4.04 ERA)
Betting Odds:
- Mets Moneyline: -142
- Nationals Moneyline: +120
- Total: 8.0 (O/U: -110/-110)
Looking for MLB edges this close to October? See today’s top baseball betting leaders →
The Mets Can Win If…
Sean Manaea controls the zone and keeps the ball in the park. The lefty has been tagged for 13 earned runs over his last 14.2 innings and hasn’t looked sharp in August. Still, he’s 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA lifetime vs. Washington.
Key Offense Trends:
- Jeff McNeil: Batting .429 over a five-game hit streak
- Brett Baty: Homered in back-to-back games
- Pete Alonso: 28 HR, 101 RBI — 9th in MLB HRs
“I wasn’t able to do what I wanted to do on defense… so I was being a detriment.”
— Brandon Nimmo on his neck injury
New York ranks 8th in home runs and 7th in OBP. If their offense sparks early, they can support Manaea in a must-win spot.
The Nationals Can Win If…
MacKenzie Gore stays hot. The 26-year-old lefty has allowed just two earned runs across his last two starts (12 IP) and has 17 strikeouts in that stretch. He’s 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Mets but pitched six solid innings against them in June.
Offensive Spark:
- Josh Bell: HR and 2 RBI Wednesday
- Dylan Crews: Scored twice last game
- Paul DeJong: 9-game hitting streak
“All of a sudden, he just turned the machine on… he pitched really well after that.”
— Nationals interim manager Miguel Cairo on Gore
If Gore stays composed and Washington’s lineup continues to deliver timely hits, they can steal the series.
Key MLB Betting Trends
| Category | New York Mets | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 67-59 (2nd NL East) | 51-75 (5th NL East) |
| Last 10 Games | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.6 (10th) | 4.2 (20th) |
| Team ERA | 3.78 (8th) | 5.34 (29th) |
| Home Runs | 165 (8th) | 127 (25th) |
The Lean
With the Mets battling for a playoff spot and Gore likely to face fatigue after two sharp outings, the edge tilts to New York. While Manaea has been shaky lately, his track record vs. Washington and the Mets’ offensive upside make them the better bet.
Model Projection: Mets 5, Nationals 3
Pick: Mets Moneyline (-142)
Total Lean: Over 8.0
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