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The Minnesota Timberwolves head to American Airlines Center to face the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday, January 28, with tipoff at 8:00 p.m. ET. This Western Conference battle features two teams trending in different directions. Minnesota has maintained its grip near the top of the conference standings, while Dallas continues to struggle with injuries and defensive breakdowns.
Oddsmakers opened Minnesota as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 232.5. The Wolves are -287 on the moneyline, while Dallas sits at +235. That spread suggests market confidence in Minnesota’s two-way dominance, especially if Luka Doncic is limited or out. But these teams have had competitive matchups before, and Dallas can still score in bunches at home.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Odds
These are the latest lines available. Monitor movement anytime on the latest NBA odds page.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | -287 | -7.0 (-110) | O 232.5 (-110) |
| Dallas Mavericks | +235 | +7.0 (-110) | U 232.5 (-110) |
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Form
The Timberwolves continue to flex their defensive muscle, allowing the fewest points per game in the NBA and ranking top three in both opponent FG% and points in the paint. Offensively, they’ve leaned on efficiency from Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, with Mike Conley providing steady playmaking. Their complete profile can be viewed on the Minnesota Timberwolves stats and results.
Minnesota is 7-3 in its last 10 and has covered four straight as a road favorite. They’re 11-9 ATS on the road overall, and their defensive identity has translated well away from home. The Wolves are also the league’s best team in limiting opponent three-point percentage — critical against a Dallas team that relies heavily on the long ball.
The key will be maintaining tempo. Minnesota prefers a slower pace and more physical game. If they dictate flow, they should cover comfortably. However, it’s wise to check the Minnesota Timberwolves injury report for any late news on Edwards, Gobert, or Conley — all have had minor knocks this month.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Form
Dallas is reeling. They’ve lost six of their last eight and have covered just twice in that stretch. Injuries have plagued them — Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have missed time, and role players like Grant Williams and Derrick Jones Jr. have seen fluctuating minutes. For more on their trends, view the Dallas Mavericks schedule and stats.
The Mavs still rank top 10 in offensive rating, but they’re bottom five in defense. Their inability to protect the rim or close out on shooters has made them vulnerable against elite wing scorers — a problem against Minnesota’s size and physicality.
They’ve been better at home offensively, but the lack of depth behind Doncic continues to be exposed. Without reliable secondary creators, Dallas struggles when defenses blitz or trap Luka, forcing others to initiate.
Be sure to check the Dallas Mavericks injury report before betting anything involving their spread or team total. Luka’s availability swings this line dramatically.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Matchup Breakdown
This is one of the clearest matchups on the slate: elite defense versus elite shotmaking. The Timberwolves will switch and funnel drives into Gobert, while the Mavericks rely on spread pick-and-roll and spot-up threes. The key is whether Dallas can force the pace and hit enough shots to disrupt Minnesota’s control.
Minnesota has a big advantage in the frontcourt. Towns and Gobert should win the paint battle handily, both on the glass and defensively. Dallas ranks near the bottom in rebounding rate and struggles to finish in traffic against length.
Key edges:
- Wolves dominate inside: +7.2 net points in the paint per game
- Mavericks struggle vs Top 10 defenses (3-8 SU)
- Minnesota holds opponents to 35.6% from deep (top 5)
- Dallas allows 119.8 ppg in their last 10
If the Mavs don’t shoot lights out from deep, this could get away from them in the second half.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Predictions and Best Bets
The line here is justified. Minnesota is simply the more complete team, and Dallas doesn’t match up well when forced into physical halfcourt sets. If Doncic doesn’t play or is clearly limited, the -7 could close even higher.
Assuming near full-strength for both sides, the Wolves still deserve the nod. Their defense travels, their depth is stronger, and they have multiple ways to score. Dallas is too reliant on hot shooting and can’t string stops together when the game slows down.
The total is trickier. Both teams have played faster in recent weeks, but if Minnesota dictates pace, this could land in the 220s. Slight lean Under unless both teams are pushing tempo early.
Best Bet: Minnesota Timberwolves -7.0 (-110)
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