Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Picks and Predictions April 28th 2025

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets April 28th 2025

At 10:00 ET, the Rockets (+143) will be in San Francisco to take on the Warriors (-170). The over/under line for this Western Conference matchup is currently sitting at 198.5 points.

Golden State (-3.5) is 7th in the Western Conference with a record of 48-34, while Houston (+3.5) is 2nd in the West at 52-30.

Rockets vs. Warriors Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
• Where: San Francisco at Chase Center
• Date: Monday, April 28th
• Betting Odds GS -3.5, HOU +143 | GS -170 O/U 198.5

The Rockets Can Win If…

The Rockets fell to 52-30 on the season after a 104-93 road loss to the Warriors on Saturday. Houston entered the game as +2 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 197 points fell short of the 205.5-point O/U line.

Houston led 22-18 after the 1st quarter and trailed by just 2 points (71-69) going into the 4th. However, they were outscored 35-22 in the final period, leading to the 11-point loss.

Fred VanVleet led the Rockets with 17 points in their 104-93 loss to the Warriors, scoring 13 of those in the 1st quarter. Alperen Şengün added 15 points, with 8 coming in the 3rd, while Dillon Brooks contributed 13 points, including 8 in the final quarter.

As a team, the Rockets shot 39.5% from the field, making 11 threes at a 39.3% clip. Brooks hit 3 threes, shooting 75% from deep, while VanVleet also connected on 3, though at 33.3% efficiency.

Defensively, the Rockets had a strong 1st quarter, holding the Warriors to just 18 points, but they struggled in the 4th, giving up 35 points in the 104-93 loss. Overall, they allowed Golden State to shoot 43% from the field.

Houston did a good job defending the three, with the Warriors hitting 14 threes on 31% shooting. The Rockets sent Golden State to the line 15 times, where they made 12 free throws. Houston finished with 36 defensive rebounds, 5 steals, and 6 blocks.

• Through their last ten road contests, the Rockets offense has averaged 111 points per game while allowing an average of 110. Houston posted an overall record of 6-4 while going 4-6 ATS.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Rockets have a straight up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 0-3.
• Over their last five games, the Rockets have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.

The Warriors Can Win If…

With a 104-93 win over the Rockets on Saturday, the Warriors improved to 48-34 this season. Playing at home, Golden State was favored by 2 points and covered the spread. The total points for the game were 197, falling short of the 205.5 O/U line.

After trailing 22-18 in the 1st quarter, the Warriors edged out the Rockets 28-27 in the 2nd and 23-22 in the 3rd. Entering the 4th quarter down 71-69, Golden State dominated the final period, outscoring Houston 35-22 to seal the win.

Stephen Curry powered the Warriors to a win over the Rockets, scoring 36 points and adding 9 assists and 7 rebounds. He hit 5 threes at a 38.5% clip, finishing with a 52.2% overall shooting percentage. Buddy Hield also connected on 5 threes, scoring 17 points, while Gary Payton II contributed 16 points, shooting 77.8% from the field.

As a team, the Warriors made 14 threes, shooting 31.1% from beyond the arc and 43.3% overall. Curry scored 13 points in the 2nd quarter and 12 in the 3rd, while Payton added 11 of his 16 points in the 4th quarter.

The Warriors put together a strong defensive performance, holding the Rockets to just 93 points on 39% shooting. Golden State allowed 22 points in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters, with the Rockets scoring 27 in the 2nd.

From beyond the arc, the Warriors gave up 11 threes on 39% shooting. Houston went 14/24 from the free-throw line. Golden State recorded 9 steals and 6 blocks in the win.

• In their last ten games at home, the Warriors have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 6-3-1 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 114 points per game in these contests.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Warriors have a straight up record of 2-1, while going 1-2 against the spread.
• In their last five games, the Warriors have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.

The Lean

As the underdogs with a spread of +3.5, we recommend going with the Rockets on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 198.5 and our model has the Rockets and Warriors finishing with a combined 267 points. Our pick is to take the over.

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Warriors Battle On Without Butler as Game 4 Looms Large

The Golden State Warriors showed resilience and championship mettle in Saturday’s Game 3 win, stepping up without their injured star Jimmy Butler. Now, as Game 4 looms Monday night at the Chase Center, Butler’s status remains highly uncertain — and the stakes are higher than ever.

Butler, still dealing with a pelvic contusion and lingering glute soreness from Game 2, is officially listed as questionable. His absence could significantly reshape the Warriors’ rotation and force others to step up yet again.

Golden State coach Steve Kerr was candid about the uncertainty, telling reporters, “He’s literally day-to-day… We’ll see. I have no idea right now if he will play.”

The Warriors already lead the series 2-1, and extending that advantage on Monday could put them firmly in control. However, Houston’s youth and athleticism ensure that nothing will come easily.

For bettors and fans tracking Butler’s injury updates, real-time data and insights are continuously updated on the NBA Picks and Predictions page.

Stephen Curry’s Historic Playoff Prowess Continues

Stephen Curry put the Warriors on his back with an electrifying Game 3 performance, scoring 36 points while adding nine assists and seven rebounds. In doing so, he climbed to 10th on the NBA’s all-time postseason scoring list, surpassing San Antonio legend Tony Parker.

“This is what superstars do in playoff games,” Kerr said postgame. “When you go deep, the playoffs get tougher and tougher, and great players just give the whole team confidence.”

Curry’s second-half explosion — where he poured in 21 points — completely tilted the momentum, showcasing once again why he’s one of the most dangerous postseason players in NBA history. His performance was also backed by strong contributions from the Warriors’ bench, notably Buddy Hield and Gary Payton II.

Golden State’s ability to maintain offensive tempo even without Butler was critical and offers intriguing storylines for DFS players and bettors analyzing game totals at the NBA Scores and Odds page.

Rockets Searching for Consistency on Both Ends

After a rousing Game 2 victory in Houston, the Rockets looked poised to take command of the series. They entered the fourth quarter of Game 3 with a narrow lead but faltered late, getting outscored 35-22 over the final 12 minutes.

Fred VanVleet, who led the Rockets with 17 points, admitted that execution fell short when it mattered most. “I thought they executed at a higher level than we did,” VanVleet noted after the game.

Jalen Green, the explosive guard who torched Golden State for 38 points in Game 2, struggled to find rhythm in Game 3, managing only nine points on 4-of-11 shooting. His inconsistency has been emblematic of Houston’s offensive struggles — potent at times but too erratic to sustain over four quarters.

Houston’s Alperen Sengun remains the most reliable force, averaging a team-best 19.3 points and 12 rebounds through the series. But against a veteran squad like Golden State, the margin for error is razor-thin.

Deep-dive breakdowns of player prop opportunities and series odds updates can be explored via the NBA Expert Betting Guide.

Warriors’ Bench Provides the X-Factor

With Butler sidelined, Golden State’s depth came to the forefront. Buddy Hield, brought in for playoff moments just like this, delivered 17 points, while Gary Payton II added 16 points on 7-of-9 shooting, igniting the crowd and lifting the Warriors when Curry rested.

The Warriors’ bench combined for 42 points, showing versatility and aggression that Houston simply couldn’t match late. Their high-energy defense and timely shot-making tilted the momentum definitively toward Golden State.

Fans wanting comprehensive team breakdowns and season-long trends can find them at the NBA Teams Database.

Houston’s Defensive Adjustment: Mission Critical

Containing Stephen Curry has been an unsolvable riddle for the Rockets so far, and heading into Game 4, head coach Ime Udoka faces tough choices. Houston’s coverage on Curry was simply too slow in Game 3, often trailing screens and missing critical switches.

VanVleet recognized the need for sharper execution defensively, adding, “He’s one of the all-time greats. Our coverages were a little slow, some of the switching and some of the physicality were a touch down.”

Houston’s adjustments will need to start with perimeter defense — both limiting Curry’s deep looks and closing out aggressively on Hield and Payton when they spot up.

Otherwise, the Rockets could be facing a daunting 3-1 series deficit before returning to Houston for Game 5.

Key Stats and Trends Entering Game 4

• Golden State is 13-1 in their last 14 playoff games as home favorites.
• Houston has failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight road games.
• Over/Under: The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Warriors’ last 10 games.
• Against the Spread (ATS): Warriors are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

Access the latest betting lines and public betting splits anytime through the NBA Odds and Lines.

Betting Preview and Predictions

Oddsmakers opened the Warriors as 6.5-point favorites for Game 4, with the total set at 222.5. Those numbers could shift dramatically depending on Butler’s final status closer to tipoff.

Even if Butler plays, expect limited minutes and impact — making Golden State’s spread value particularly attractive.

Predicted Final Score:
Warriors 112, Rockets 104

Best Bets:

• Warriors -6.5 (up to -7.5 if Butler is ruled out)
• Over 222.5 Total Points
• Curry Over 29.5 Points (Player Prop)

For official picks, player props, and parlay plays, check out the best analysis available at the NBA Picks Hub