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Table of Contents
Match Facts
This game starts Sunday at 8:30 PM at Chase Center in San Francisco. Golden State is 5–5 after a 129–104 loss at Denver. Indiana is 1–8 after a 117–100 loss at Denver and arrives on a road back-to-back with travel. For research and pricing, use expert breakdowns on the NBA picks hub, roster and depth info via the NBA teams index, live numbers on the NBA odds board, and concepts in the NBA betting guide.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Date and time | Sunday, November 9, 2025, 8:30 PM |
| Venue | Chase Center, San Francisco |
| Broadcast | NBCS |
| Last meeting | Pacers 114, Warriors 109 (Nov 1, Indianapolis) |
| Schedule note | Indiana on a back-to-back with travel; Golden State returns home |
| Team | Record | Recent note |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 5–5 | Defensive slippage on the road; home shooting regression expected |
| Pacers | 1–8 | Three straight losses; guard rotation stabilizing on the fly |
Line and Odds
The market opened near Warriors -12.5 with a total of 227.5 and moneylines around Warriors -699 and Pacers +493. The spread prices in two opposing forces. Indiana’s fatigue and thin on-ball creation support Golden State demand and keep the favorite elevated. Stephen Curry’s status is the main volatility source. If he is confirmed active with normal minutes, books can shade toward -13.0 or -13.5 as models boost half-court efficiency and three-point gravity. If he is limited or out, buyback into the -11s is likely from dog bettors. The total tracks guard confirmations and pace assumptions. Curry in plus Indiana’s transition tendencies attracts early over interest. Second-night legs and shorter rotations often produce late under pressure if the game state hints at slower tempo. Verify last-hour moves and shop variance on the NBA odds board before entry.
Movement Matchup
Golden State’s earlier loss at Indiana removes any flat spot. The home cover path is turnover control, stronger point-of-attack defense, and earlier help tags to blunt dribble penetration that created kick-out threes in the first meeting. Indiana’s path is defensive rebounding, foul discipline against shooters, and leveraging Andrew Nembhard’s ball control to produce stable half-court possessions on tired legs. Fourth-quarter separation risk favors the Warriors if Indiana’s rotation shows fatigue.
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Injury Reports
Warriors
| Player | Status | Detail | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry (G) | Questionable | Illness; missed last two games | Raises spacing, three-point volume, and half-court efficiency if active |
| Rotation note | — | No other new items in the provided notes | Usage normalizes at home if Curry returns |
Pacers
| Player | Status | Detail | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quenton Jackson (G) | Out | Hamstring; out for entire four-game trip | Removes on-ball creation that hurt GSW in prior meeting |
| Andrew Nembhard (G) | Available | Returned from shoulder; 33 minutes at DEN | Stabilizes initiation and secondary scoring |
| Monte Morris (G) | Available | Signed pre-DEN; 15 minutes in debut | Bench control and turnover suppression |
| Tyrese Haliburton (G) | Uncertain in notes | Previously missed vs GSW | Status swings spread and total due to elite initiation |
| Bennedict Mathurin (G/F) | Uncertain in notes | Previously out vs GSW | Wing scoring and rim pressure |
| Obi Toppin (F) | Uncertain in notes | Previously out vs GSW | Transition pace and vertical spacing |
| T.J. McConnell (G) | Uncertain in notes | Previously out vs GSW | Second-unit organization and ball security |
Warriors Recent Performance
Golden State has allowed frequent 107-plus opponent totals early, with Denver exposing late help and closeouts. Home shooting should normalize upward. If Curry plays at any regular load, defenders cannot dig as aggressively off corners, which opens slips, short-rolls, and relocation threes. Turnover control is the core lever. When giveaways stay down, Golden State’s offensive efficiency spikes and the defense sets more often, reducing Indiana’s transition volume.
Pacers Recent Performance
Indiana’s effort is intact, but creation depth is thin on consecutive nights. Nembhard’s 22 at Denver is a positive stabilizer. Aaron Nesmith’s efficient shooting provides spacing, and Monte Morris limits chaotic stretches with bench control. The constraint is stamina and defensive rebounding on the road. One-and-done defense keeps them in range. Second-chance leaks create avalanche risk in the fourth quarter.
Betting Insights and Trends
The prior head-to-head result favors Golden State focus. The spread size introduces garbage-time variance. Bench guard stability and late defensive rebounding often decide covers in this range. Totals are news-dependent. More available guard minutes tilt toward early pace and makes. Fatigue and shortened rotations tilt toward late unders. For futures and derivative context while you price positions, compare viewpoints on the NBA picks hub, scan team pages via the NBA teams index, and pressure-test entries against live numbers on the NBA odds board. If you need market mechanics, review the NBA betting guide.
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Best Pick
Warriors -12.5
The edge is schedule and creation. Indiana travels on a back-to-back with guard minutes in flux, which caps half-court efficiency and increases turnover risk against a locked-in home defense. Golden State’s offense expands materially even with a partial Curry load, and role players tend to shoot better at Chase Center. If late news rules Curry out or limits him sharply, reduce stake size or seek -11.0 to -11.5 on buyback before tip using the NBA odds board.
Projection
Warriors 118, Pacers 105.
The scoring gap comes from turnover differential, defensive rebounding, and fourth-quarter pace decay for Indiana. Golden State’s spacing and shot quality should improve at home, and Indiana’s second-night legs raise the probability of late possessions that drain clock rather than trade threes.
Handicapper Section
For vetted selections and unit discipline, compare expert viewpoints on the NBA picks hub. If you want a refresher on derivatives like first-quarter totals or team totals before locking bets, use the NBA betting guide and confirm shop-specific prices on the NBA odds board.
