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Match Facts
Oklahoma City comes into San Francisco with real history on the table. At 20-1, the Thunder own the second-best start in NBA history, trailing only the 2015-16 Warriors’ 24-0 run and joining the 1969-70 Knicks and 1993-94 Rockets as the only other teams to open 20-1 or better, both of whom went on to win the title. They have ripped off 12 straight wins and are bludgeoning opponents by an average of 15.5 points per game, playing like a team that expects to dictate terms every night rather than protect a record. Jalen Williams’ quote sums it up: Oklahoma City still sees itself as the hunter, not the hunted, using internal competitions like his steals race with Cason Wallace to keep the locker room sharp and energized.
Golden State sits at 11-10 and is in survival mode without Stephen Curry. The Warriors just beat New Orleans at home behind a big Jimmy Butler line, pushing their home record to 7-2, but Curry remains out with a quad contusion and strain. This is not the same group that once set the all-time start record; instead, it is a team trying to tread water, patch up health issues, and plug in veteran pieces like Seth Curry to squeeze every bit of shooting and experience out of the rotation. For broader team context and season-long metrics, both clubs are fully profiled in the league’s NBA teams section.
Here is the core matchup information.
| Matchup Info | Details |
|---|---|
| Sport | NBA |
| Teams | Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors |
| Venue | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, December 2, 2025 |
| Time | 11:00 PM ET |
| Records | Thunder 20-1, Warriors 11-10 |
Line and Odds
The market is treating this like a heavyweight vs shorthanded contender. Oklahoma City is laying a big number on the road, a sign of how dominant they have been and how much Curry’s absence drags Golden State’s rating.
| Market | Thunder | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -12.0 (-110) | +12.0 (-111) |
| Moneyline | -620 | +454 |
| Total Points | 221.5 (O/U) |
Live movement, alternate spreads and updated prices across books can be tracked on the NBA scores and odds screen.
Movement Matchup
From a form standpoint, the trajectories could not be more different. Oklahoma City has become the league’s most ruthless machine. Their 12-game win streak is already tied for the second longest since the franchise moved to OKC, and it has not been built on flukes or lucky bounces. They hammer teams early, tighten the screws defensively, and have often made the fourth quarter a formality. The Thunder already beat these Warriors 126-102 at home on November 11, and they did it without wasting motion. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams play with a relentless attacking mentality, and the coaching staff has clearly sold the group on the idea that the record does not change their identity: they still act and play like the aggressor.
Golden State’s “movement” is less about records and more about survival. Without Steph, the entire offensive hierarchy changes. Instead of flowing out of Curry’s gravity and off-ball chaos, they lean on Jimmy Butler to manufacture offense, rely more on pick-and-roll and mid-range creation, and hope their shooters can keep spacing respectable. The home win over the Pelicans showed they can grind out games with Butler running the show and complementary pieces like Gary Payton II stepping up. At the same time, this is a team that knows it is limited at the moment. Al Horford is doubtful with sciatica. Trayce Jackson-Davis has missed multiple games with a knee issue. The expected debut of Seth Curry adds shooting and professionalism, but it does not replace the explosion and gravity of Stephen. This is a Warriors team searching for competent lineups and pockets of momentum while the Thunder are hunting statement wins.
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Breakdown Injury Reports
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Hartenstein (C) | Questionable | Right calf strain |
| Alex Caruso (G) | Questionable | Right quad soreness |
The Thunder recently got Jalen Williams back from wrist surgery but still have not been fully whole. Hartenstein’s absence the last two games has forced more small-ball looks and additional minutes on Holmgren inside, while Caruso sitting in Portland removed a key perimeter defender and secondary playmaker.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry (G) | Out | Right quad contusion/strain |
| Al Horford (F/C) | Doubtful | Sciatica |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis (F/C) | Out or Doubtful | Knee |
Curry’s absence is obviously the headline. Horford’s sciatica and Jackson-Davis’ knee issues thin out the frontcourt rotation, which matters against a long, aggressive OKC team that can attack the paint and offensive glass in waves. Seth Curry is expected to debut after signing, but he is a floor-spacer, not a volume creator.
Oklahoma City Thunder Recent Performance
Oklahoma City’s 20-1 start is not a mirage built on a soft schedule or one-dimensional dominance. They are balanced and ruthless. The Thunder average 122.2 points per game, good for near the top of the league, and they do it efficiently with a field goal percentage just under 49 percent. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to play at an MVP level, scoring in the mid-20s and impacting the game as a playmaker and defender. Holmgren brings a stretch-five skill set with real rim protection, and Jalen Williams has given them a strong secondary creator who can guard multiple positions.
The defensive profile might be even more frightening. Allowing only about 106.7 points per game, they sit atop the league defensively. That combination of offense and defense is why their average margin is north of 15 points per night and why blowouts have become routine. The “hunter” mentality Jalen Williams described is not just talk. Internal competitions, like his steals race with Cason Wallace, show a group that is creating its own edge even as the schedule dips into the grind of the regular season. Mark Daigneault calls his locker room autonomous for a reason; this is a team that does not need to be pushed every night to play hard. That is exactly the profile you want when evaluating long-term futures, which is the lens used in the NBA championship odds predictions analysis.
Golden State Warriors Recent Performance
Golden State’s 11-10 record does not scream disaster, but context matters. With Curry healthy, they look like a dangerous, high-variance team that can shoot with anyone and lean on home-court energy. Without him, the margin for error shrinks immediately. The win over New Orleans without Steph was encouraging. Jimmy Butler took on lead-scoring and playmaking responsibilities, posting 24 points and 10 assists, while Gary Payton II provided a massive energy injection with 19 points and 11 boards. Those kinds of performances are necessary to survive stretches without their superstar.
Even so, the Warriors’ offensive identity is shifting out of necessity. They still rank near the top of the league in threes made and attempted, but the efficiency has been more volatile. When the shots fall, they can build and protect leads. When they do not, they have to lean on a defense that has been good in stretches but is not the switch-everything monster from their title years. The expected addition of Seth Curry gives Steve Kerr another trusted shooter who knows how to play within their motion system, but it does not solve the structural issues of missing Steph and dealing with a banged-up frontcourt. Right now, this is a team relying heavily on home floor and experience to keep its head above water until it gets closer to full strength.
Betting Insights and Trends
From a betting standpoint, the gap between these teams right now is massive. Laying double digits on the road is not common in the NBA, but Oklahoma City’s performance level justifies it. They cover numbers by simply playing their normal game; their average margin is already in that 15-point range. They are winning comfortably, rarely needing last-minute heroics, which makes them a model-friendly favorite in most situations. Their combination of top-three offense and best-in-the-league defense is exactly the profile that shows up as value in power ratings and predictive models. Those kinds of edges and how they compare to market lines are unpacked in the NBA expert betting guide.
The total at 221.5 reflects some respect for both defenses and the possibility that Golden State’s offense stalls without Steph. Oklahoma City can score in the 120s on almost anyone, but their defense and pace control can also drag opponents down. If the Thunder get out early and choke off the Warriors’ three-point rhythm, this can slip toward a one-sided, lower-total game quickly. Conversely, if Golden State’s shooters and Butler get going, the over comes back into play because OKC is not slowing down offensively just to keep a game under the number.
Situationally, Golden State’s strong home record at 7-2 and their familiarity with big national stages will tempt some bettors to grab the points, especially with a double-digit spread in the Chase Center. The issue is that this version of the Warriors is not the 2015-16 juggernaut. Without Steph, with a compromised frontcourt, and facing a Thunder team that is currently torching everyone, the talent and form gap remains large.
For a deeper slate-wide comparison of totals, spreads and moneyline value on this night and beyond, the NBA odds and picks hub aggregates model projections and verified records for all games.
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The most straightforward read is that Oklahoma City is simply operating on a different level than Golden State right now, and the injuries make that gap even wider. The Thunder are the healthier side, the more coherent side, and the one with elite two-way numbers. Golden State’s only clear edges are home court and coaching experience, and those are not enough on their own when the roster is this shorthanded.
Projected Score: Thunder 118, Warriors 104
That projection supports Oklahoma City -12. The Thunder’s average margin, defensive rating, and the Warriors’ offensive drop without Steph all point toward another double-digit victory if OKC brings its usual intensity. On the total, 118-104 gives a combined 222, which is right on top of the 221.5 number. The slight lean is toward the under, primarily because Golden State’s offense is far less dynamic without Curry and because the Thunder’s defense can drag opponents into long, painful stretches of empty possessions.
Side lean: Thunder -12.0
Total lean: Under 221.5
For bettors building out a full card or stacking this game into a multi-leg approach across sides, totals, and player props, it makes sense to cross-check this view with the broader analytics and premium selections available in the NBA picks section. That is where long-term records, unit tracking and futures positioning on teams like Oklahoma City are tied directly into daily edges on the board.
