Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets Picks and Predictions January 26th 2026

The Memphis Grizzlies (15–31) head to the Toyota Center to face the surging Houston Rockets (27–19) on Monday, January 26, 2026. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET, and the line is steep — Houston is favored by 10.5 points at home, with Memphis sitting as a double-digit underdog in a divisional matchup that looks lopsided on paper.

The Rockets are coming off a strong stretch and continue to hold their position in the middle of the Western Conference playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are just trying to stay afloat amid injuries, inconsistency, and a roster that hasn’t looked the same since the first week of the season. From a betting standpoint, the spread is big — but the situation may still offer angles for totals or derivative bets if the matchup trends hold true.

Grizzlies vs Rockets Odds

Current betting lines are listed below. As always, check the latest NBA odds for late movement before tipoff.

Team	Moneyline	Spread
Houston Rockets	-520	-10.5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies	+400	+10.5 (-112)

Grizzlies Betting Form

The Memphis Grizzlies enter this game at 15–31, and the record reflects what we’ve seen on the court. Even with some flashes of energy and defensive grit, Memphis hasn’t been able to string together meaningful wins — and they’re still a far cry from the playoff team we saw in years past. The absences of Ja Morant and Steven Adams continue to loom large.

Offensively, the Grizzlies are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. They lack reliable shot creation, and when Desmond Bane isn’t on the floor (or isn’t cooking), their offense stagnates fast. The halfcourt game has been especially brutal — they often settle for contested jumpers or swing the ball aimlessly until the shot clock forces an attempt.

The Memphis Grizzlies injury report remains long. Bane and Marcus Smart have both missed time recently, and Luke Kennard’s availability is also in question. The lack of consistent scoring options means Memphis has to rely on transition opportunities and offensive rebounding — both of which are harder to come by against a structured team like Houston.

From a betting perspective, Memphis has been competitive at times ATS as a large underdog — especially when teams overlook them. But they’ve also been blown out in multiple road spots this season. Their ability to cover +10.5 depends entirely on whether they can muck things up defensively and keep Houston in the 100–110 range. That’s a tall ask.

Rockets Betting Form

The Houston Rockets continue to surprise. At 27–19, they’ve outpaced preseason expectations and are starting to look like a serious postseason threat. They’ve been excellent at home, winning consistently thanks to top-tier defensive play, a deep roster, and better-than-expected shot-making from both veterans and younger players.

Houston ranks among the league’s best in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. They’re physical, communicate well, and challenge every shot — particularly in the paint. Against a short-handed Grizzlies team, those traits could quickly turn this into a wire-to-wire cover if the Rockets get out early.

Offensively, Houston isn’t flashy — but they’re effective. Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green have developed chemistry in the backcourt, and Alperen Şengün continues to emerge as a matchup nightmare on the block. The Rockets don’t need to play fast to score, which helps them control tempo and wear down less disciplined teams.

Availability is relatively stable right now, but it’s still worth reviewing the Houston Rockets injury report for any last-minute changes. If their full rotation is active, their depth is one of their biggest strengths — especially when it comes to maintaining or expanding leads late.

Houston has also become a strong ATS team at home — and large spreads like this haven’t been automatic traps. They’ve covered double-digit numbers more than most mid-tier teams because their defense keeps pressure on, even in blowout scenarios.

Grizzlies vs Rockets Matchup Breakdown

There’s no sugarcoating it — this is a mismatch. But large spreads often come down to game script. Will Houston take its foot off the gas? Will Memphis hang around long enough to backdoor a cover?

Let’s break down the matchup keys.

Tempo Control

Neither team plays especially fast, which could keep the total modest if set in the low 220s. Houston prefers halfcourt execution, and Memphis simply doesn’t have the scorers to speed things up consistently. This is important for total bettors — pace is unlikely to artificially inflate scoring.

Offensive Matchups

Houston has the better scorers at nearly every position. Şengün has a size and skill edge inside, and VanVleet can create off the dribble in ways Memphis struggles to contain. Memphis, on the other hand, will rely heavily on midrange pull-ups and second-chance looks, neither of which are sustainable.

Defensive Pressure

Memphis can still defend at a decent level when locked in, especially on the perimeter. But they don’t have the backline strength to stop Houston’s inside-out game. Houston, meanwhile, excels at pushing ball-handlers off their spots — bad news for a Grizzlies squad that already lacks confident initiators.

Rebounding

Big edge for Houston. The Grizzlies give up far too many second-chance points and are unlikely to generate enough extra possessions to balance out their inefficiencies.

Bench Units

Another advantage for the Rockets. They’re one of the deeper teams in the West, and their second unit continues to extend leads rather than just hold them. Memphis’s bench is a mixed bag — high effort, but low efficiency.

Grizzlies vs Rockets Predictions and Best Bets

This is a tough spot for Memphis. They’re on the road, short-handed, and up against one of the better defensive teams in the NBA. While +10.5 might feel tempting — especially with public bettors expecting a letdown — the on-court matchup heavily favors Houston.

If the Grizzlies had even two of their core offensive players back, there’d be a case for grabbing the points. But without creation, they’ll struggle to keep pace. Houston’s discipline, rebounding, and interior defense should carry them to a comfortable win.

The spread is big, yes — but there’s enough on the Rockets’ side to justify the number. Just keep an eye on injury updates before locking it in.

Total leans under, assuming it lands around 221–223. Houston should control the game, and unless their offense explodes from three, this feels more like a 110–98 type of night.

Best Bet: Rockets -10.5 (-110)
Secondary Lean: Under (if total opens at 223 or higher)

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