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Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Preview
The Memphis Grizzlies will look to build on their opening-night win when they host the Miami Heat at FedExForum on Friday, October 24, 2025, with tip-off scheduled for 8:00 PM ET. The game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Memphis is coming off a 128–122 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, powered by Ja Morant’s 35-point performance in his first game back from injury. Miami, meanwhile, dropped its season opener 125–121 to the Orlando Magic despite a 28-point showing from Norman Powell.
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Line Movement and Odds
Oddsmakers opened with the Grizzlies favored at home, and early betting has supported Memphis after Morant’s explosive return.
Current Odds:
- Miami Heat Moneyline: +139
- Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline: -164
- Spread: Grizzlies -3.5 (-110) / Heat +3.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 233 (-110 / -110)
Expect line movement toward the Over, as both teams ranked top 10 in possessions and points per game through their first contests.
Matchup Breakdown
The Heat Can Win If…
The Miami Heat can’t afford another fourth-quarter collapse like the one they suffered against Orlando, where they led by eight with under eight minutes to play but went nearly five minutes without a made field goal.
Norman Powell was dynamic in the opener, scoring 28 points on 11-of-18 shooting, while Davion Mitchell added 16 points and 12 assists as the Heat continue to adjust without Tyler Herro, who remains sidelined following left ankle surgery.
Head coach Erik Spoelstra’s offense still shows promise. Miami ranks 4th in possessions per game and 11th in field goal percentage, highlighting an aggressive pace and efficient shot selection. Defensively, the Heat must close out on Memphis’ perimeter shooters and avoid foul trouble — the Grizzlies earned 35 free throws in their opener.
If Miami can control tempo and force Memphis into half-court possessions, the Heat have the veterans to pull off the road upset.
The Grizzlies Can Win If…
With Ja Morant back, the Grizzlies instantly resemble a contender again. The All-Star guard scored 35 points, including 11 in the final four minutes, to lift Memphis past New Orleans. Morant’s explosiveness and leadership gave the Grizzlies an energy that’s been missing — and teammates fed off it.
Jaren Jackson Jr. added 18 points, eight rebounds, and six blocks, showcasing why Memphis can dominate both ends of the floor when healthy. The Grizzlies hit 51.2% from the field (6th in the NBA) and lead the league in free throws made (35) at an 81.4% success rate.
On defense, Memphis ranks 2nd in steals (5.0 per game) and 7th in limiting three-point makes, forcing opponents to attack the paint — exactly where Jackson thrives.
If Morant stays aggressive without re-aggravating his ankle and the Grizzlies maintain their defensive discipline, they should protect home court and move to 2–0.
Betting Trends
- Memphis Grizzlies are 4–1 straight up in their last five home games.
- Memphis has hit the Over in four of its last five against Eastern Conference opponents.
- Miami Heat are 6–2 ATS in their last eight road games as underdogs.
- The Over has hit in six of Miami’s last seven games when the total is 230 or higher.
- Memphis has covered the spread in five straight games vs. Miami.
Prediction and Analysis
The return of Ja Morant changes everything for Memphis. His ability to attack late in games and create transition opportunities gives the Grizzlies the clear edge against a Heat team still finding its rhythm without Herro.
Miami’s offense can keep it close, but its defense showed cracks late against Orlando — and that won’t hold up against Morant’s relentless drives or Jackson’s inside presence. Expect a high-paced shootout early, but Memphis’ closing ability and home crowd energy should prove decisive.
Projected Score: Grizzlies 128, Heat 121
Best Bet: Grizzlies -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under Lean: Over 233 (-110)
Prop to Watch: Ja Morant Over 28.5 Points (-115)
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