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Florida vs Arizona Week 1 Betting Preview
Defending champion Florida begins its title defense in a marquee matchup against Arizona on Monday in Las Vegas. The neutral-site opener has the feel of a March matchup, with both teams ranked inside the top 15.
Florida closed last season on a 12-game winning streak, capped by a national title that included upsets of Auburn and Houston. Coach Todd Golden now reshapes his lineup around frontcourt power—Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu—after losing guards Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard to the NBA. Transfers Boogie Fland (Arkansas) and Xaivian Lee (Princeton) fill out the backcourt.
Arizona enters its first full Big 12 season with similar turnover. The Wildcats lost Caleb Love and Carter Bryant but reloaded with one of the nation’s top freshman classes, led by Brayden Burries and Koa Peat. Coach Tommy Lloyd said he’ll play “the best players, no matter the year,” praising his newcomers’ maturity.
The programs have split four previous meetings, with Arizona taking the most recent 65-64 win in 2021.
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Line Movement and Odds
Florida opened as a 1.5-point favorite at most books, with the total at 154.5. As of Sunday afternoon, the Gators sit at -2 (-110) and -135 on the moneyline, while Arizona is +115. The total has ticked up to 156, indicating sharp money on the Over.
Public bettors are backing Florida after its championship run, but several sharper accounts hit Arizona early at +2.5, creating two-way action near the key number. You can track live movement and totals at the NCAA basketball odds page
Matchup Breakdown
Florida Outlook:
The Gators return one of the deepest frontcourts in the nation. Condon (10.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg) is expected to anchor a slower, inside-oriented attack. Expect Florida to test Arizona’s size advantage early, with more touches near the rim and rebounding focus after ranking top 25 nationally in defensive rebounding rate.
Arizona Outlook:
The Wildcats’ perimeter group is less experienced but more athletic. Peat and Burries bring length and scoring upside, while Jaden Bradley provides stability at the point. Arizona’s tempo ranked 23rd nationally last season, and Lloyd’s teams typically generate high shot volume with strong offensive rebounding (34.7% rate).
The key battle: Florida’s interior scoring vs. Arizona’s defensive rotations. Both teams should attack the paint, and whichever frontcourt avoids foul trouble likely controls the pace.
If you’re comparing efficiency data before betting, the expert betting guide offers advanced matchup breakdowns and line analytics.
Injuries and Conditions
Florida:
- Boogie Fland (ankle) – Probable after limited practice time.
- Rueben Chinyelu (shoulder) – Expected to play with wrap protection.
Arizona:
- KJ Lewis (transfer paperwork) – Cleared, available.
- Bryce James – Likely inactive, could redshirt.
See full player status updates on the Florida injury report and Arizona injury report
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas.
Weather: Indoor venue, no impact.
Best Bets and Prediction
Florida’s frontcourt edge should matter early, but Arizona’s length and pace can flip momentum in the second half. Expect a high-possession, competitive game fitting of a Top-15 clash.
ATS Trend: Florida went 23-15 ATS last season, including 6-1 on neutral courts. Arizona covered 8 of its last 11 as an underdog.
Projected Score: Florida 80, Arizona 78.
Best Bet: Arizona +2.
Secondary Lean: Over 156.
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