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The Sun Belt regular season winds down this Friday as the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns travel to Jonesboro to face the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Tipoff is set for 8:30 PM ET at First National Bank Arena, with the game streaming live on ESPN+. This matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions: Arkansas State is surging with a 19-11 record and a dominant home presence, while Louisiana-Lafayette has struggled through a 10-20 campaign marked by significant difficulties on the road.
Arkansas State enters the contest as a heavy 13.5-point favorite. The Red Wolves have been an offensive juggernaut in conference play, recently securing a high-scoring 89-84 win over Southern Miss. Louisiana-Lafayette, meanwhile, is looking to find some offensive rhythm after a disappointing 59-point outing against Troy. With a massive discrepancy in scoring output and home-court advantage firmly in the Red Wolves’ corner, oddsmakers expect a one-sided affair in Jonesboro.
For the Ragin’ Cajuns, this is a chance to play spoiler and find momentum before the conference tournament. For the Red Wolves, it’s about protecting their 10-4 home record and solidifying their standing among the Sun Belt’s elite.
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Louisiana-Lafayette vs Arkansas State Odds
These odds reflect the current market consensus. Given the high spread, it is essential to monitor the latest college basketball odds for any movement leading up to tipoff.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | +725 | +13.5 (-107) | O 146.5 (-108) |
| Arkansas State | -1404 | -13.5 (-116) | U 146.5 (-115) |
Louisiana-Lafayette Betting Form
The Ragin’ Cajuns have found it difficult to generate consistent offense this season, averaging just 62.9 points per game. They are coming off a 78-59 loss to Troy, though Jaxon Olvera provided a bright spot with 19 points on 61.5% shooting. Olvera’s ability to create his own shot will be vital if Louisiana-Lafayette hopes to keep pace with a high-scoring Arkansas State unit. One area where the Cajuns can be dangerous is from the perimeter, as they average 7.8 three-pointers per game.
While their 3-12 road record is a major red flag, the Ragin’ Cajuns have shown flashes of life, including a recent 13-point victory over Texas State. However, their slow pace (61.2 possessions per game) often leaves them with a very small margin for error. You can find more detailed splits and historical data on the Louisiana-Lafayette stats and results page.
Before backing the double-digit underdog, check the Louisiana-Lafayette injury report to ensure Olvera and the rest of the starting five are available. Without their primary scoring threats, the Cajuns may find it impossible to crack the Red Wolves’ defense.
Arkansas State Betting Form
Arkansas State is currently one of the most balanced teams in the Sun Belt. They rank 47th nationally in scoring (83.2 PPG) and 23rd in rebounding (41.0 RPG). In their recent win over Southern Miss, Jalen Hampton dominated the interior with 17 points and 13 rebounds, while Chandler Jackson continued to prove why he is a primary threat, fresh off a 31-point performance in a previous meeting with the Ragin’ Cajuns.
The Red Wolves have won three straight games and have been incredibly reliable at First National Bank Arena. Their ability to dominate the glass provides them with numerous second-chance opportunities, which is a nightmare for a smaller Louisiana-Lafayette squad. Review their full performance history at the Arkansas State schedule and stats page.
Be sure to monitor the Arkansas State injury report for any late changes. With the Red Wolves playing at such a high tempo, their depth is a major asset, and having a full rotation will be key to covering a spread as large as 13.5.
Louisiana-Lafayette vs Arkansas State Matchup Breakdown
This game is a fundamental clash of styles and efficiency. Arkansas State wants to run, rebound, and use their 83.2 PPG offense to bury opponents early. Louisiana-Lafayette prefers a methodical, slow-paced game (61.2 possessions) to limit the number of opportunities the Red Wolves have to score.
The rebounding battle will likely be the deciding factor. Arkansas State’s 23rd-ranked rebounding unit creates a massive advantage against a Louisiana-Lafayette team that often struggles to box out bigger frontcourts. If the Red Wolves control the boards as expected, the Ragin’ Cajuns will find themselves under constant pressure.
- Scoring Gap: Arkansas State (83.2 PPG) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (62.9 PPG).
- Home Advantage: Arkansas State is 10-4 at home; ULL is 3-12 on the road.
- Previous Meeting: Arkansas State won by 17 points earlier this season.
For those looking for more insight into Sun Belt betting trends, a college basketball betting guide can provide context on how high-tempo home favorites generally perform in conference finales.
Louisiana-Lafayette vs Arkansas State Predictions and Best Bets
The numbers heavily favor the home side in this matchup. Arkansas State scores over 20 points more per game than Louisiana-Lafayette and has already proven they can beat the Cajuns by double digits this season. My model projects a final score of 85-67 in favor of the Red Wolves. Given Louisiana-Lafayette’s 3-12 road record and their lack of offensive firepower, covering 13.5 points at home should be well within reach for Jalen Hampton and company.
As for the total, 146.5 is a tricky number. While Arkansas State can score 80+ easily, Louisiana-Lafayette’s incredibly slow pace and scoring struggles suggest the Under is the more disciplined play. If the Cajuns can’t contribute at least 65 points, it becomes very difficult for the game to reach the Over unless Arkansas State touches the 100-point mark.
I’m laying the points with the Red Wolves. Their rebounding and home-court scoring are too much for ULL to handle.
Best Bet: Arkansas State -13.5 (-116)
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