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Arkansas State heads to Troy to face the Trojans on Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET at Trojan Arena in Troy, Alabama. This Sun Belt matchup is on ESPN+, and it’s a legit “coin-flip with a home edge” game: both teams are 12-6, both can score, and both have already shown they can land punches in this series.
Troy is laying 3.5 at home with a total of 163.5. That’s a loud signal from the market: expect pace, expect points, and expect late-game possessions to matter. Arkansas State already beat Troy 86-74 earlier this season, so this isn’t a spot where the underdog is walking into something unfamiliar. The question is whether Troy’s recent surge at home is real enough to flip the result.
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Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Troy Trojans Odds
These are the current betting lines. Before placing anything, keep an eye on the latest college basketball odds in case the spread or total moves near tip.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | +126 | +3.5 (-115) | O 163.5 |
| Troy Trojans | -158 | -3.5 (-109) | U 163.5 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Form
Arkansas State is coming off a tight 91-87 loss to South Alabama, and the key takeaway is they can score under pressure. Jaxon Ellingsworth had a monster all-around game (18 points, 13 boards), and Royal Blue Smith matched him with 18. That’s the profile you want backing a road dog: multiple ways to generate points, plus enough free throws late to stay attached.
Their season numbers support it. 83.5 points per game and 77.4% at the line are exactly the kind of ingredients that keep +3.5 alive late, even if they’re down two possessions with a minute left. And the biggest confidence booster is obvious: Arkansas State already beat Troy by 12. They’ll believe they can win this outright again.
If you want a quick look at recent scores, splits, and game logs, use the NCAAB hub for Arkansas State stats and results.
Troy Trojans Betting Form
Troy is coming in hot after smashing Southern Miss 91-65, and it wasn’t a fluky result. Cobi Campbell dropped 30 on elite efficiency, and the Trojans controlled the game from start to finish. They’ve also been excellent at Trojan Arena (6-1 home record), and the way they’ve been winning lately matters: two straight wins by 20+ suggests they’re playing with rhythm and confidence, not just grinding out coin-flip games.
Offensively, Troy is built to punish teams that can’t match pace. 86.2 points per game with a strong effective field goal rate (54.1%) means they can score without needing a crazy turnover edge. If they’re getting clean looks early and Arkansas State isn’t forcing uncomfortable possessions, Troy can build enough separation to cover -3.5.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Troy Trojans Matchup Breakdown
This game is basically offense vs offense, and the total tells you the books are expecting it to stay that way.
Arkansas State’s edge is the +3.5 and the fact they’ve already proven they can win the matchup. Troy’s edge is home form and current momentum, plus they’re coming off a blowout where the offense looked automatic. This isn’t a “who’s better” handicap as much as “who controls the tempo and gets the cleaner looks.”
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Troy Trojans Predictions and Best Bets
I lean Troy -3.5, but it’s not a slam dunk. The case is straightforward: Troy has the higher scoring profile, they’re in better recent form, and they’re playing at home where they’ve been much more consistent. If Troy is getting out in transition and Campbell is even close to last game’s level, Arkansas State will need to be extremely efficient to keep it inside one possession.
On the total, I lean over 163.5. Both teams are scoring in the mid-80s range, and neither side is described here as slowing games down. If this stays competitive into the final four minutes, the over also benefits from late fouls and quick possessions.
Best Bet: Troy Trojans -3.5 (-109).
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you’re building a slate, use today’s college basketball picks to compare how other matchups are being attacked and spot where the market is leaving room. For a process check on totals and pace-driven games like this, the sports betting strategy guide is useful for understanding why some high totals still have value when late-game mechanics favor the over.
