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Baylor vs UT Rio Grande Valley Betting Preview
Baylor opens its season Monday night in Waco with a completely rebuilt roster. Coach Scott Drew’s team brings in a top-25 recruiting class and no returning scholarship players, a rare reset for a program that’s used to March Madness runs. You can track Baylor’s full roster and trends on their team page
UT Rio Grande Valley also features heavy turnover, returning just three players from last year’s group. Coach Kahil Fennell said this week the goal is “better balance inside and outside,” something the Vaqueros struggled with in past seasons. Their profile is available on the UTRGV team page
This in-state opener at Foster Pavilion should showcase both teams’ new-look lineups and how quickly they can gel under real game pressure.
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Line Movement and Odds
Baylor opened around –25.5 with a total of 152.5, and money has pushed the line slightly higher to –26.5. The moneyline is heavy toward the Bears, reflecting bettors’ trust in Drew’s program despite the roster overhaul. You can compare live numbers anytime on the NCAA Odds page
Public money is leaning heavily to Baylor, while sharper bettors have taken small stabs on UTRGV at inflated spreads. The total has stayed mostly flat, suggesting a split opinion on pace and early-season efficiency.
Matchup Breakdown
Baylor Outlook
The Bears’ attack centers on transfers like Michael Rataj and freshman Tounde Yessoufou, a top-15 national recruit. Expect a simplified playbook early, as Drew noted he’s “kept things simpler so people can pick things up quicker.” If the new frontcourt controls the glass, Baylor should dominate second-chance points.
UTRGV Outlook
The Vaqueros return forward Kwo Agwa, a 56% shooter who averaged 6.2 points and 4.3 rebounds last season. UTRGV’s success depends on limiting turnovers and keeping Baylor off the offensive boards.
For full matchup data and historical context, check the college basketball previews section
Injuries and Conditions
Baylor Bears
- No key injuries reported heading into opening night.
UTRGV Vaqueros
- No injuries reported from preseason practices.
Game will be indoors at Foster Pavilion, so weather plays no factor.
Best Bets and Prediction
Baylor is 4-1 straight-up in its last five home games but 2-3 ATS in that span. UTRGV is 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. With both sides retooling, defense usually develops faster than offense early in the year.
Projected Score: Baylor 84, UTRGV 57
Best Bet: Baylor –26.5
Secondary Lean: Under 153
For data-driven betting advice, browse our College Basketball Picks and see how today’s predictions align with the consensus.
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