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Air Force heads to Boise to face Boise State on Saturday, January 24, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET at ExtraMile Arena. It’s a Mountain West conference game on MWN. Boise State is 11-8 and has been solid at home at 8-4, while Air Force is 3-16 and still winless on the road at 0-6, which is basically why this spread is enormous.
Boise State is laying 22.5 with a total of 134.5. That’s a classic “can the favorite build margin without getting sloppy” setup. Air Force’s offensive floor is low, so the only real question is whether Boise State stays engaged enough to turn this into a 20-plus point win, or if it becomes one of those games where the favorite coasts and the underdog sneaks inside the number late.
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Air Force Falcons vs Boise State Broncos Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor updated numbers and shop for the best number on the latest college basketball odds.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force Falcons | +2500 | +22.5 (-109) | O 134.5 (-118) |
| Boise State Broncos | -10000 | -22.5 (-117) | U 134.5 (-108) |
Air Force Falcons Betting Form
Air Force is coming off an 81-52 loss to Colorado State, and it looked like a familiar story. They struggled to create efficient offense, and once the game got away, it was hard for them to generate any kind of run. Kam Sanders led with 11 and Lucas Hobin had 10, but even in their “better” scoring nights, Air Force tends to top out in the low 60s. That’s a problem when the opponent is capable of putting up 75 to 80 at home.
The Falcons do have a couple of traits that matter for the spread. They shoot 52.4% on twos, which tells you they can finish when they actually get into the paint. But getting there consistently against better athletes is the issue, and turnovers or empty possessions can pile up fast. Air Force has covered 6 of 17 games as an underdog, so they’re not an automatic fade every night, but asking them to stay connected for 40 minutes on the road is still a tough sell. If you want to track how Air Force has been performing game to game and how their road results have looked, the Air Force stats and results hub is a quick reference.
Boise State Broncos Betting Form
Boise State just beat Wyoming 81-65 and looked comfortable doing it. Andrew Meadow’s 21 points on efficient shooting is the headline, but the bigger point is that Boise State didn’t need anything fluky. They got solid interior production, they made free throws, and they defended well enough to avoid long scoring droughts.
At home, Boise State is 8-4, and ExtraMile Arena is usually a good environment for them to build early control. They average 77.1 points per game and shoot free throws at 76.7%, which is one of those “quiet” edges in big spread games. When you’re up 14 to 18 in the second half, making free throws is how you keep the underdog from getting momentum. If Boise State plays clean, it can cover 22.5 simply by being disciplined.
The only thing that scares you on a number like this is focus. Favorites can get loose with the ball once they feel safe. That’s the only path for Air Force to hang around.
Air Force Falcons vs Boise State Broncos Matchup Breakdown
This is mostly about whether Boise State can take away Air Force’s limited scoring options. Air Force needs to win a lot of “small” possessions: get a decent shot, avoid turnovers, make Boise State play in the half court, and keep the game from turning into a runout contest. If Air Force is giving up live-ball turnovers or long rebounds that lead to transition, the spread can be covered by halftime.
The total at 134.5 is telling you the market expects Air Force to struggle to score, which makes sense. Boise State can get into the mid to high 70s, but for the Over to cash, Air Force probably needs to get into the 60s. That’s not impossible, but it’s not the typical outcome, especially on the road. Blowout script usually helps Unders because the pace slows and benches play more minutes, but it can also create cheap points if Boise State keeps running. This is where game state matters more than the raw averages. The sports betting strategy guide is a good framework for understanding why big spreads and low totals can still interact in weird ways.
Air Force Falcons vs Boise State Broncos Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is Air Force +22.5. That sounds uncomfortable given the records, but the number is massive, and Boise State isn’t a team that plays at an extreme pace. If Boise State gets up big and rotates deeper, Air Force can backdoor this with a decent five-minute stretch against the second unit. That’s the kind of scenario that happens more than bettors want to admit in conference games with heavy favorites.
On the total, I lean Under 134.5. The cleanest path is Boise State controlling the game, Air Force struggling to reach 60, and the second half slowing once the margin is safe. Even if Boise State scores efficiently, the Under can still cash if Air Force is stuck in the low 50s or high 50s.
Best Bet: Under 134.5 (-108).
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Big spreads in conference play are usually about motivation and game script more than pure team quality. You need to know whether the favorite is likely to press the advantage for 40 minutes or simply win comfortably and move on.
ScoresAndStats helps you approach those spots with a slate mindset, starting with today’s college basketball picks so you can compare multiple games and find the best value rather than forcing the biggest mismatch. If you’re tracking teams across the board and want a clean schedule and context hub while you shop lines, the NCAAB teams page keeps everything organized.
