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The Atlantic Coast Conference schedule heats up this Wednesday as the SMU Mustangs travel to Berkeley to take on the California Golden Bears. This high-stakes matchup features two teams sporting identical 19-8 records, both on the precipice of a 20-win season. Tipoff is set for 10:00 PM ET at Haas Pavilion, with the national broadcast airing on ACC Network (ACCN).
The betting market currently lists SMU as a 3.5-point favorite on the road. Despite Cal’s formidable 16-3 home record, oddsmakers are leaning toward the Mustangs’ high-octane offense, which has been firing on all cylinders. The moneyline sits at -180 for SMU and +142 for the Golden Bears, while the total is set at a lofty 161.5 points.
This game carries significant weight for ACC Tournament seeding. SMU currently holds an 8-6 conference record, sitting just one game ahead of Cal (7-7) in the race for a top-nine spot and a crucial first-round bye.
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SMU vs California Odds
Bettors should always make it a habit to check the latest college basketball odds before placing a wager as these lines can move based on late breaking news or heavy sharp action.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| SMU Mustangs | -180 | -3.5 (-112) | O 161.5 (-110) |
| California Golden Bears | +142 | +3.5 (-111) | U 161.5 (-110) |
SMU Mustangs Betting Form
The Mustangs arrive in Berkeley riding a wave of offensive momentum, having scored 95 and 94 points in their last two outings. SMU boasts the #1 scoring offense in the ACC, averaging 86.8 points per game (14th in the NCAA). Their efficiency is equally impressive, ranking 13th nationally with a 50.0% field-goal percentage.
Key to this success is their balanced attack, led by Boopie Miller (18.7 PPG) and Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.6 PPG). In their recent win over Boston College, B.J. Edwards and Samet Yigitoglu chipped in 15 points apiece, showcasing the depth that makes SMU so difficult to defend. The Mustangs have been particularly dominant when favored, posting a 16-1 record in that role this season. You can track their season-long trends and results via SMU team stats. SMU currently reports a clean bill of health. Check the SMU injury report closer to game time for any last-minute updates on the starting five.
California Golden Bears Betting Form
California has turned Haas Pavilion into a fortress this season, winning 16 of 19 games on their home court. They are coming off a grit-and-grind 72-66 win over Stanford, led by a balanced effort from Chris Bell (20 points) and John Camden (18 points, 8 rebounds). The Golden Bears excel from the perimeter, shooting 37.6% from 3-point range, which ranks 43rd in the country.
While their road record has been shaky, Cal’s ability to protect the ball and hit free throws (78.4%) keeps them in games against elite competition. They have covered the spread in 6 of their last 10 games, showing they are a live underdog, especially at home. For a deeper look at their performance against ACC foes, visit the California schedule and stats.
Cal is dealing with several depth issues. Rytis Petraitis is out for the season, while big man Lee Dort remains questionable with a thigh injury. Check the California injury report to see if Dort is cleared to provide much-needed interior defense against SMU’s Samet Yigitoglu.
SMU vs California Matchup Breakdown
This game is a clash of offensive efficiency versus home-court resilience. SMU wants to push the pace—they rank 1st in the ACC in fastbreak points—while Cal prefers a more controlled environment where their perimeter shooting can shine.
The Mustangs have a historical edge, having won both meetings last season, including an 81-77 victory in Berkeley. However, Cal’s improved 3-point shooting this year could be the equalizer. If the Golden Bears can force SMU into a half-court game and capitalize on their 78.4% free-throw shooting, they have a legitimate shot at the upset.
- SMU Offense: 86.8 PPG (1st in ACC)
- Cal Home Record: 16-3
- Fastbreak Points: SMU leads ACC (12.7 per game)
- Free Throw %: Cal ranks 1st in ACC home games (78.4%)
SMU vs California Predictions and Best Bets
Our model projects a competitive, high-scoring affair with SMU winning 85-78. Despite Cal’s strength at Haas Pavilion, the Mustangs’ offensive ceiling is simply higher right now. Their ability to score from multiple positions and their status as a top-20 national offense makes them the pick to cover the short 3.5-point spread.
For the total, we lean toward the Under 161.5. While both teams can score, Cal’s deliberate pace at home often limits possessions. A projected total of 163 is extremely close to the line, but given the stakes of ACC seeding, we expect defensive intensity to pick up in the second half, keeping the final tally just under the 162 mark.
Best Bet: SMU -3.5 (-112)
Advanced Insights for CBB Bettors
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NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Want more insights before the late-night tip? Check out today’s college basketball picks to see how the pros are playing this ACC battle. Following our handicapper leaderboard can help you find experts with the best ROI in conference play.
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