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Pioneers vs Tommies Picks and Predictions – Sunday January 4, 2026
Denver heads to Saint Paul for a Summit League conference spot with St. Thomas (MN) on Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. The Tommies have been strong at Lee & Penny Anderson Arena, and the market is pricing that edge in with St. Thomas laying a big number.
The current setup is St. Thomas (MN) -10.5 with Denver +10.5, and a total sitting at 161.5. That is a pretty aggressive number for a conference game, so this one quickly becomes a question of tempo control, shot quality, and whether Denver can avoid the empty possessions that create separation.
Denver Pioneers vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Odds
These are the current betting lines, and you will want to keep an eye on the market for updated college basketball odds leading into tip.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Pioneers | +377 | +10.5 (-115) | 161.5 |
| St. Thomas (MN) Tommies | -525 | -10.5 (-108) | 161.5 |
Denver Pioneers Betting Form
Denver comes in off an 87-74 win over Kansas City, and the offensive profile is exactly why taking points is at least on the table. The Pioneers can score, they shoot it well from deep, and they are comfortable playing a game where both teams get clean looks early in the clock. If Denver is spacing the floor and hitting threes, it forces St. Thomas to defend longer possessions and keeps the favorite from running away.
The problem spot is always what happens when Denver’s jumpers are not falling for a stretch, because that is when the turnover and defensive rebound margins start to matter. Against a home team that wants to build leads through repeated stops, Denver has to stay stable, get to the rim enough to avoid living purely on variance, and make sure they are finishing possessions.
You can dig into Denver stats and results to get a better feel for their scoring runs and road patterns.
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Betting Form
St. Thomas (MN) is laying 10.5 for a reason. They have been reliable at home, and they can put pressure on opponents with efficient shooting and steady half-court execution. When this team is playing clean, the math is simple: they get good shots, they avoid giveaways, and they force you to beat them with contested jumpers. That tends to play well in conference spots where underdogs can tighten up.
The angle to watch for bettors is how St. Thomas handles a team that can really shoot. If the Tommies give up open threes and Denver hits a normal rate, the spread becomes harder to cover because you are trading twos for threes and the game stays within two possessions. St. Thomas can still win, but covering margin becomes more fragile.
Before you commit to a side, check St. Thomas (MN) schedule and stats.
Denver Pioneers vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Matchup Breakdown
From a matchup standpoint, Denver’s path is straightforward: keep the pace playable, win the shot-quality battle with spacing, and do not give St. Thomas extra possessions. If Denver is turning it over or giving up live-ball mistakes, that is how a +10.5 turns into a blowout quickly.
The total is the more interesting market here. 161.5 assumes extended scoring with both teams converting efficiently, and it also assumes a pace that stays honest for 40 minutes. Conference games can do the opposite. Even when teams score well, the second half often slows down, and you get longer possessions, more physical defense, and fewer transition freebies.
If Denver can make St. Thomas guard without fouling, and St. Thomas does not get a parade of easy points off turnovers, the spread stays alive and the under becomes very live. But if either team starts trading early-clock threes without resistance, this total can get to the number fast.
Denver Pioneers vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Predictions and Best Bets
My strongest lean is Denver +10.5. Denver’s ability to score and stretch the floor makes it difficult for a favorite to create separation unless the underdog melts down with turnovers or gets crushed on the glass. Even if St. Thomas controls the game, Denver can still hang around with shot-making.
I also lean Under 161.5, because the number is pricing a clean, high-efficiency game from start to finish, and conference games rarely stay that smooth for 40 minutes. Late-game fouling is always the threat, but you need the right game state for that to matter, and a spread this big does not guarantee a tight finish.
If you like St. Thomas, I would rather isolate it to moneyline parlays or live betting after you see whether Denver’s perimeter offense is translating early. Pre-flop, you are paying full tax for the home edge.
Best Bet: Denver +10.5
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you are playing a full college card, do not stop at one matchup. The college basketball picks page is the quickest way to compare positions across the slate and see where the strongest consensus is forming.
For bettors who want to track who is actually beating the market, the best handicappers hub and the live handicappers leaderboard make it easy to follow the hottest runs and avoid guessing based on name value. If you want full-card access, you can also explore premium packages on [buy picks](z](https://www.scoresandstats.com/buy-picks/), then circle back through the latest NCAAB previews and the full NCAAB teams hub to keep your matchup notes consistent. For broader strategy work, the main expert betting guide is worth using alongside the daily market takes, and the blog is where you can find more angle-driven reads. If you are still shopping your outs, the sportsbook reviews and handicappers sites reviews sections help you compare options before you lock in volume.
