Florida Gators vs Tennessee Volunteers Picks and Predictions January 10th 2026

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The Florida Gators enter 10-5 and look to defend their home court, while the Tennessee Volunteers aim to bounce back from a conference-opening loss in this SEC rivalry clash at Exactech Arena in Gainesville.

Line Movement and Odds

Tennessee opened as the slight favorite, with the line reflecting confidence in their offensive balance and recent form. Current market:

  • Tennessee Spread: -2.5 (-110)
  • Florida Spread: +2.5 (-110)
  • Tennessee MoneyLine: -140
  • Florida MoneyLine: +120
  • Total: 147.5 (-110)

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Matchup Breakdown

Florida Outlook

Florida averages 82.1 points per game, with Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu, and Walter Clayton Jr. leading the offense. Haugh (17.5 ppg, 12 rebounds vs Georgia) provides versatility, while Chinyelu anchors the glass (10.3 rpg). Their 10-5 overall record and 1-1 SEC mark underscore inconsistency, though their win over Georgia showed resilience and home-court energy. Coach Todd Golden emphasizes pace and defensive urgency as keys to success.

Tennessee Outlook

Tennessee averages 79.6 points per game, with Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Nate Ament, and J.P. Estrella providing scoring depth. Gillespie (18.7 ppg, 5.7 apg) erupted for a career-high 34 points vs Texas, while Ament (14.7 ppg) and Estrella (10.5 ppg) add balance. Their 11-4 overall record and 1-1 SEC mark highlight competitiveness, with coach Rick Barnes emphasizing improved free-throw shooting and defensive focus after the Arkansas loss.

Key Matchup / Path to Victory

The game hinges on Florida’s ability to leverage Haugh’s versatility and Chinyelu’s rebounding, while Tennessee must lean on Gillespie’s scoring and Ament’s inside presence. If Tennessee maintains defensive intensity and free-throw efficiency, their depth should create separation. Florida’s hopes rest on home-court energy and balanced scoring to keep the game close.

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Injuries / Availability

Florida: No injuries reported.

Tennessee: No notable injuries listed.

Environment

Exactech Arena provides Florida with a strong home-court edge, where they have won three straight against Tennessee. The Volunteers hold a 9-4 series margin in the past 13 meetings, adding intrigue to this rivalry clash.

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Best Bets and Prediction

Projected Final Score: Tennessee 76, Florida 72

  • Tennessee -2.5 → Best Bet. Their offensive balance and Gillespie’s leadership make them the sharper side.
  • Under 147.5 → Total play. Both teams’ defensive adjustments point toward a combined score below the line.

Tennessee’s depth and Gillespie’s scoring should dictate the game, while Florida’s home-court advantage keeps the spread in play. Expect a competitive contest trending under the total.

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