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Friday night Atlantic 10 action heads to the nation’s capital as the Dayton Flyers visit the George Washington Revolutionaries at the Charles E. Smith Center. Tipoff is set for 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 for a game that carries massive implications for the A-10 tournament seeding. Dayton enters with a 19-9 record and is currently riding a three-game winning streak. On the other side, George Washington stands at 16-12 and has proven to be a force at home, boasting an 11-4 record in Washington DC.
The Revolutionaries open as 3.5-point favorites at home with a moneyline of -188. Dayton, despite their superior overall record, finds themselves as 3.5-point underdogs with a moneyline of +149. The total is set at 152.5, a number that balances GW’s explosive offense against Dayton’s slightly more deliberate pace. This matchup features a fascinating contrast: Dayton’s elite ability to get to the free-throw line versus George Washington’s high-octane perimeter shooting.
The atmosphere at the Charles E. Smith Center is expected to be electric, as the Revolutionaries look to build on a dominant 104-point performance in their last outing. For the Flyers, this is a “prove-it” road game; while they have been great at home, their 4-6 road record is the primary reason they find themselves as underdogs tonight.
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Dayton Flyers vs George Washington Revolutionaries Odds
The betting lines are tight for this conference showdown. Be sure to shop for the best prices and monitor the latest college basketball odds as tipoff approaches, as A-10 games often see sharp movement late in the day.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Dayton Flyers | +149 | +3.5 (-109) | U 152.5 (-113) |
| George Washington Revolutionaries | -188 | -3.5 (-113) | O 152.5 (-109) |
Dayton Flyers Betting Form
Dayton is currently playing its most inspired basketball of the season. Coming off a 77-62 win over Saint Louis, the Flyers are led by Amaël L’Etang, who recently dominated with 26 points and 10 rebounds. The backcourt is anchored by Javon Bennett, whose playmaking and 17.0 PPG average keep the offense fluid. Perhaps the most important stat for Dayton bettors is their free-throw frequency; they rank 12th nationally, making 19.6 free throws per game.
The Flyers have been a reliable cover recently, going 3-0 ATS in their last three games. Their ability to draw fouls and convert at the line allows them to stay in games even when their field goal percentage dips. You can find more detailed splits and historical data on the Dayton Flyers stats and results page.
Before backing the road underdog, it is wise to check the Dayton Flyers injury report to ensure their rotation is at full strength. In a high-possession game, Dayton needs their bench depth to match the track-meet style that George Washington often tries to force.
George Washington Revolutionaries Betting Form
George Washington is an offensive juggernaut at home. They rank 39th in the nation in scoring at 83.6 points per game and are 37th in effective field goal percentage (55.9%). In their last game, they shot a staggering 67.2% from the field. Luke Hunger and Trey Autry provide a lethal inside-out combo, with the team averaging over 10 three-pointers per game.
The Revolutionaries are 14-6 straight up when favored this season and have protected their home court well. Their 11-4 home record suggests they are a completely different team in DC compared to when they are on the road. You can review their full performance history at the George Washington schedule and stats page.
Be sure to monitor the George Washington injury report for any updates on their perimeter shooters. Their offense relies heavily on spacing, and if any of their primary marksmen are limited, it could significantly hamper their ability to cover the 3.5-point spread.
Dayton vs George Washington Matchup Breakdown
This game is a battle of efficiency versus volume. George Washington wants to run, fire threes, and out-talent Dayton in transition. Dayton, meanwhile, wants to work the ball inside, get L’Etang to the rim, and live at the free-throw line. If Dayton can slow the game down and win the rebounding battle, they can neutralize GW’s fast-break opportunities.
George Washington’s 11-4 home record is the strongest trend in this game. They shoot nearly 5% better at the Charles E. Smith Center than they do on the road. However, Dayton’s defense has been stout lately, allowing just 62 points in their last outing. If the Flyers can keep the Revolutionaries under 80 points, they have a massive chance to cover or win outright.
- GW scores 83.6 PPG (39th in NCAA) vs. Dayton’s 76.2 PPG.
- Dayton ranks 12th in the country in free throws made per game.
- George Washington shoots 67.2% in their most recent victory.
For those looking to dive deeper into A-10 betting strategies, a college basketball betting guide can provide more context on how road underdogs perform in this specific conference.
Dayton vs George Washington Predictions and Best Bets
While Dayton is on a hot streak, George Washington’s home-court dominance and elite offensive efficiency are hard to ignore. The Revolutionaries are 14-6 as favorites and have the perimeter firepower to pull away if Dayton’s defense lapses for even a five-minute stretch. My model projects a 7-point win for GW, suggesting they should cover the 3.5-point spread with some room to spare.
As for the total, the line of 152.5 feels a bit high. While GW can put up 100 points on any given night, Dayton’s slower pace (67.8 possessions per game) and their defensive commitment during this three-game win streak suggest a final score closer to 78-71. The projected total of 149 points makes the Under the smarter play in a high-stakes conference game.
I’m laying the points with the home favorite. GW’s shooting at home is simply too consistent to bet against in this spot.
Best Bet: George Washington Revolutionaries -3.5 (-113).
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NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
The Atlantic 10 is one of the most competitive conferences in the country, and finding value requires a professional eye. You can follow today’s college basketball picks for expert analysis on this game and the rest of the Friday night slate. Our team looks at everything from shooting splits to situational travel fatigue to find the best edges.
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