Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini Picks and Predictions January 11th 2026

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The Iowa Hawkeyes enter 12-3 and look to rebound from a tough road loss, while the Illinois Fighting Illini aim to continue their strong defensive form in this Big Ten clash at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

Line Movement and Odds

Illinois opened as the favorite, with the line reflecting confidence in their balanced offense and defensive surge. Current market:

  • Illinois Spread: -4.5 (-110)
  • Iowa Spread: +4.5 (-110)
  • Illinois MoneyLine: -185
  • Iowa MoneyLine: +155
  • Total: 139.5 (-110)

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Matchup Breakdown

Iowa Outlook

Iowa averages 74.1 points per game, with Bennett Stirtz, Tavion Banks, and Kael Combs leading the offense. Stirtz (18.0 ppg, 5.0 apg) is the focal point, earning a spot on the Wooden Award mid-season watch list. Their 12-3 overall record and 2-2 Big Ten mark underscore competitiveness, though their reliance on Stirtz has created challenges when defenses load up against him. Coach Ben McCollum emphasizes pace and secondary leverage as keys to unlocking the offense.

Illinois Outlook

Illinois averages 78.6 points per game, with Keaton Wagler, Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir Ivisic, and Terrence Shannon Jr. providing scoring depth. Their balanced attack (six players near double figures) and defensive surge (allowing just 55.8 points per game during a four-game win streak) highlight strength. Their 12-3 overall record and 3-1 Big Ten mark underscore consistency, with coach Brad Underwood praising their defensive cohesion and length.

Key Matchup / Path to Victory

The game hinges on Iowa’s ability to generate secondary scoring options beyond Stirtz, while Illinois must lean on Wagler and their frontcourt duo to pace the offense. If Illinois maintains defensive intensity and rebounding, their depth should create separation. Iowa’s hopes rest on pace and balanced contributions to keep the game close.

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Injuries / Availability

Iowa: No injuries reported.

Illinois: No notable injuries listed.

Environment

Carver-Hawkeye Arena provides Iowa with a strong home-court edge, where they look to snap Illinois’ dominance in the series. Illinois’ balanced offense and defensive surge highlight their ability to compete in Iowa City despite the road challenge.

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Best Bets and Prediction

Projected Final Score: Illinois 72, Iowa 66

  • Illinois -4.5 → Best Bet. Their balanced scoring and defensive consistency make them the sharper side.
  • Under 139.5 → Total play. Both teams’ defensive tendencies point toward a combined score below the line.

Illinois’ depth and defensive intensity should dictate the game, while Iowa’s offense keeps the spread in play. Expect a competitive contest trending under the total.

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