Iowa Hawkeyes vs Maryland Terrapins Picks and Predictions December 6th 2025

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Game Preview: Maryland @ Iowa

Iowa returns home Saturday aiming to regroup after a rough Big Ten opener, hosting the Maryland Terrapins in Iowa City. The Iowa Hawkeyes (7-1, 0-1) were dominated inside by Michigan State in a 71-52 loss that exposed issues in physicality and rebounding. Maryland (6-3, 0-0) enters its conference opener with renewed confidence after an 89-63 win over Wagner, powered by Pharrel Payne’s career-best 30 points and 10 rebounds. Iowa opened as a short home favorite with totals in the high 140s. This Big Ten clash anchors part of the broader weekend board featured on the ScoresAndStats NCAAB previews page.

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Odds and Key Information

Iowa opened between -4 and -5, with modest early action shading toward the Hawkeyes after coach Ben McCollum emphasized embracing lessons from the Michigan State loss. Maryland’s moneyline settled near +160, while Iowa sits around -190. The total opened at 148 and ticked down slightly as bettors anticipated increased defensive effort from Iowa after allowing 21 second-chance points.

McCollum said he welcomed being exposed, stressing that the Hawkeyes needed to address physicality and defensive positioning. Maryland first-year coach Buzz Williams noted that his rotation remains fluid as health stabilizes, but his team must manage the challenge of a true Big Ten road test.

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Iowa Outlook

Iowa entered the week undefeated and scoring efficiently, but Michigan State overwhelmed them with rebounding dominance and interior physicality. The Hawkeyes were outboarded 37-18, outscored 34-18 in the paint, and gave up a 21-4 second-chance margin. McCollum emphasized that the team must improve rim protection, box-outs, and consistency in contested rebounds.

Offensively, Iowa leans on perimeter creation led by Bennett Stirtz, who averages 18 points and 5.3 assists while shooting over 44 percent from deep. Alvaro Folgueiras and Cooper Koch also exceed 44 percent from three, giving Iowa reliable spacing even when interior scoring lags. The Hawkeyes thrive when they create inside-out rhythm, push early offense, and avoid stagnant late-clock possessions.

Iowa’s defensive response is the central storyline. Improved positioning and transition discipline will be essential against Maryland, especially if Payne continues his interior production.

Maryland Outlook

Maryland arrives at 6-3 with renewed structure after welcoming back Solomon Washington, who posted 10 points and six rebounds in his debut. With Washington, Payne, and Elijah Saunders, the Terrapins possess a frontcourt capable of challenging Iowa’s interior deficiencies. Payne’s 30-point, 10-rebound breakout versus Wagner showcased his ability to establish deep position and finish through contact.

Buzz Williams acknowledged uncertainty in rotations due to early-season injuries, emphasizing that the Terrapins must continue learning through high-level competition. Maryland’s offensive success depends on stabilizing halfcourt execution, creating downhill opportunities through Payne, and leveraging offensive rebounding to extend possessions.

The Terrapins’ defense must stay disciplined against Iowa’s perimeter attack, closing out efficiently and preventing rhythm threes. Maryland’s ability to manage pace and deny early offense will determine whether they can slow the Hawkeyes’ scoring efficiency.

Key Matchup Table

Key FactorAdvantage
Interior PhysicalityMaryland
Three-Point Shooting EfficiencyIowa
Rebounding ConsistencyMaryland
Transition OffenseIowa
Frontcourt DepthMaryland

Betting Trends

Iowa is 5-3 ATS, typically performing well at home but showing defensive inconsistency against elite physical teams. Their totals tend to skew over, though market expectations have tightened as defensive regression becomes a concern. Maryland is 4-5 ATS and has battled inconsistency due to rotating lineups, but the Terrapins have excelled when they control the glass and limit turnovers.

Historically, Iowa at home performs well in bounce-back spots, particularly when facing opponents adjusting to Big Ten physicality for the first time. Market movement for this matchup can be monitored via the ScoresAndStats NCAAB odds page.

The Lean

Iowa’s shooting depth and home environment offer advantages, but Maryland’s interior strength and improving rotation make this matchup tighter than early numbers suggest. If Payne establishes himself early, Maryland can dictate tempo and create high-efficiency chances near the rim. However, Iowa’s perimeter scoring and anticipated defensive urgency may provide enough of a lift to avoid consecutive losses.

Projected Score: Iowa 77, Maryland 72
Best Bet: Iowa -4
Total Lean: Under 148

For more Big Ten previews and matchup modeling, visit the ScoresAndStats college basketball preview hub.

Why You Need Expert Picks

Physical conference matchups often produce volatile outcomes tied to rebounding margins and late-game shot quality. The ScoresAndStats Handicappers Leaderboard identifies experts who excel in modeling defensive matchups and pace adaptations. Leveraging their insights helps clarify edges where numbers alone may seem balanced.

To build a structured approach to conference-play wagering, the ScoresAndStats expert betting guide outlines strategies for evaluating situational regression, road-underdog value, and scoring volatility. Combining expert perspectives with matchup-specific analytics strengthens long-term betting performance across the Big Ten.

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