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Iowa State vs Fairleigh Dickinson Week 1 Betting Preview
No. 16 Iowa State tips off its season Monday night against Fairleigh Dickinson in Ames, Iowa, looking to prove defense still drives its success under T.J. Otzelberger. The Cyclones finished 25-10 last season, built around one of the nation’s stingiest defenses, and open as heavy favorites against a rebuilding Knights squad.
Otzelberger’s team prides itself on physical play, ranking top five nationally in defensive efficiency last year. “That’s been our identity and will continue to be,” he said. Returners Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson, and Milan Momcilovic form the core, though Lipsey is nursing a knee injury that could affect his availability for the opener.
For bettors tracking early-season momentum, this is an ideal matchup to follow on the college basketball previews page as Iowa State’s defensive metrics carry strong wagering implications early in the year.
Fairleigh Dickinson, led by coach Jack Castleberry, went 13-20 last season in the NEC and faces a major talent gap here. The Knights will debut several newcomers, including 7-foot transfer Cyril Martynov and 6-10 freshman Sebastian Haubro from Denmark.
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Line Movement and Odds
According to the NCAA basketball odds board, Iowa State opened as a -27.5 favorite with the total at 144.5. Early sharp money pushed the spread toward the Cyclones, while public bettors are leaning on the over.
Last season, Iowa State went 19-13-3 ATS, thriving as a home favorite, while Fairleigh Dickinson covered 13 of 31 games overall. Bettors can compare spread movement and totals anytime on the live college basketball picks and odds page
Matchup Breakdown
Iowa State ranked third in the Big 12 in scoring defense (61.3 ppg allowed) and led the conference in turnover rate. The addition of veteran guard Nate Heise from Northern Iowa strengthens the defensive rotation and adds leadership on the perimeter.
The Cyclones’ offense revolves around inside-out movement, with Jefferson anchoring the paint and Momcilovic spacing the floor. Their balance and rebounding should dominate an undersized Fairleigh Dickinson team that allowed 77.2 points per game last year.
Castleberry’s group will rely on energy and speed to counter Iowa State’s size, but expect the Knights’ young frontcourt to struggle handling the Cyclones’ length and pressure.
Injuries and Conditions
Iowa State
- G Tamin Lipsey (knee) – questionable, limited in practice.
- G Curtis Jones (ankle) – probable.
Full details on the Iowa State injury report
Fairleigh Dickinson
- No major injuries reported entering the opener.
Check updates on the Fairleigh Dickinson injury report
Weather: Indoor venue, no conditions expected to affect play.
Best Bets and Prediction
Iowa State’s defense and rebounding edge should set the tone from the tip. Fairleigh Dickinson’s lack of proven scorers makes it hard to see this staying competitive beyond the first half.
ATS Trend: Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home openers.
Projected Score: Iowa State 83, Fairleigh Dickinson 54
Best Bet: Iowa State -27.5
Lean: Under 144.5
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