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Big 12 basketball continues Tuesday night as the Baylor Bears head to Manhattan to face the Kansas State Wildcats. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET at Bramlage Coliseum, with national coverage on ESPN2. Baylor enters the contest at 13-12, looking to snap a three-game skid against top-tier competition. Kansas State, currently 10-15, aims to protect their home court and find footing in a grueling conference schedule where they have struggled to a 1-11 mark in Big 12 play.
The Bears open as a 4.5-point favorite on the road, while the total sits at a high 161.5. Despite the records, “The Octagon of Doom” remains a difficult venue for visitors. Baylor’s high-octane offense will be tested by a Wildcats squad that ranks among the conference leaders in ball movement and assists.
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Baylor vs Kansas State Odds
With both teams fighting to improve their conference standing, line movement is expected as tip-off nears. You can find the most up-to-date prices on the latest college basketball odds page.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Baylor | -200 | -4.5 (-107) | O 161.5 (-110) |
| Kansas State | +157 | +4.5 (-118) | U 161.5 (-110) |
Baylor Betting Form
Baylor’s identity this season is built on an elite scoring offense that averages 83.4 points per game. Led by NBA prospect Cameron Carr (19.2 PPG) and the explosive Tounde Yessoufou, the Bears have the firepower to blow past opponents. However, they are coming off an 82-71 loss to Louisville where they struggled to maintain defensive consistency.
A significant factor for the Bears is the health of their backcourt. Dan Skillings Jr. is currently questionable with a knee injury, and his absence was felt in their last outing. If he remains sidelined, Isaac Williams IV will need to replicate his 20-point performance from Saturday. Historically, Baylor has performed well as a favorite, but their 4-6 road record shows they can be vulnerable in hostile environments. Track their full season results on the Baylor stats and results page and keep an eye on the Baylor injury report for official word on Skillings.
Kansas State Betting Form
Kansas State has faced a brutal stretch, recently falling 78-64 to No. 2 Houston. Despite the losses, P.J. Haggerty has been a revelation, averaging 23.3 points per game and proving he can score against the nation’s best defenses. The Wildcats are at their best when they share the ball, ranking 27th nationally with 17.8 assists per game. Nate Johnson serves as the primary floor general, often looking for Taj Manning and Dorin Buca in the paint.
The Wildcats have covered the spread in two of their last three games, showing they are playing more competitively than their record suggests. At home (8-7), they tend to play with higher energy and improved perimeter defense. For a deeper look at their ATS trends as a home underdog, visit the Kansas State schedule and stats page. Be sure to check the Kansas State injury report regarding Andrej Kostic (ankle), whose perimeter shooting is vital for their spacing.
Baylor vs Kansas State Matchup Breakdown
This matchup features two teams with high-scoring potential but contrasting styles of efficiency. Baylor ranks 47th in field goal percentage (47.9%), while Kansas State relies on a high volume of possessions and effective ball movement. The key will be whether Kansas State can capitalize on Baylor’s defense, which allows 76.1 points per game.
Key Stat: Kansas State averages 17.8 assists per game. If they can move the ball to exploit Baylor’s defensive rotations, they can negate the Bears’ athletic advantage in transition.
Rebounding will also be a major factor. Baylor typically holds the edge on the boards, but if Nate Johnson and the Wildcats can limit the Bears to one shot per possession, they can turn the game into a half-court battle where their assist-heavy offense thrives. For those following the broader picture, check out our college basketball championship odds to see how the Big 12 landscape is shifting.
Baylor vs Kansas State Predictions and Best Bets
While Baylor has the higher ceiling, laying 4.5 points on the road in Manhattan is a tall task for a team that has lost three straight. Kansas State’s home-court advantage and P.J. Haggerty’s scoring ability make them a live underdog. Our model projects a very tight contest, with the Wildcats’ high assist rate keeping them within the number.
For the total, 161.5 is a massive number. Although both teams have high scoring averages, Baylor’s pace has slowed in recent weeks, and Big 12 conference games often become more physical and defensive in the second half. A projected total closer to 162 makes this a “stay away” for many, but the slight lean is toward the Under.
Best Bet: Kansas State +4.5 (-118) and Under 161.5 (-110).
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NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Navigating the Big 12 requires local knowledge and deep statistical analysis. You can find more of today’s college basketball picks to see how our experts are playing the rest of the Tuesday slate.
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