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The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) spotlight shifts to Lawler Arena this Thursday as the Marist Red Foxes visit the Merrimack College Warriors. Tip-off is set for 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. This is a high-leverage meeting between two of the conference’s top four programs. Merrimack currently sits at 16-9 overall with a stellar 12-2 mark in league play, while Marist travels with a 16-8 record and a 10-5 conference standing. The Warriors are looking to sweep the season series after taking the first meeting 68-55 back in January.
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Oddsmakers have Merrimack as a 3.5-point home favorite with a moneyline of -174, while the total is set at a low 129.5. This line makes sense given that Merrimack is virtually unbeatable at home, posting a 9-1 record in North Andover this season. Marist is coming off a frustrating three-point loss to Fairfield and will be hungry to prove they can hang with the conference frontrunners on the road.
Marist vs Merrimack College Odds
These lines are currently active across major books, but bettors should always monitor the latest college basketball odds for any sharp movement or injury-related adjustments leading up to tip-off.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Marist | +133 | +3.5 (-116) | O 129.5 (-110) |
| Merrimack College | -174 | -3.5 (-109) | U 129.5 (-110) |
Marist Betting Form
The Red Foxes play a grind-it-out style that relies on one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank 4th in the country in points allowed per game (62.6) and 11th in effective field goal percentage defense. This unit is anchored by Jaden Daughtry, who leads the team in rebounding and steals. Offensively, Marist relies on a backcourt trio of Rhyjon Blackwell, Elijah Lewis, and Justin Menard. Menard is coming off an 18-point effort against Fairfield and serves as the primary playmaker, while Blackwell provides the perimeter threat.
Efficiency has been a bit of a roller coaster for John Dunne’s squad, but they are elite at the free-throw line, ranking 3rd nationally at 80.3%. In a game expected to be played at a snail’s pace, that proficiency from the stripe is a major asset for anyone looking at the Marist stats and results. One concern for the Red Foxes is the interior rotation, as Tarik Watson remains out with a knee injury. Be sure to check the Marist injury report to see if any other frontcourt depth is impacted before this physical matchup.
Merrimack College Betting Form
Joe Gallo has his Warriors playing some of their best basketball of the season, entering this contest on a four-game winning streak. Merrimack’s defensive identity is built around a morphing zone that is notoriously difficult to prepare for on a short turnaround. They rank near the top of the MAAC in block rate and opponent three-point percentage. Offensively, they are led by Tye Dorset and Ernest Shelton, both of whom are coming off double-digit performances in a 26-point blowout of Rider.
The Warriors are a different animal at Lawler Arena. Their 9-1 home record is backed by an 8-0 mark in conference play at home. They tend to control the tempo early, often jumping out to leads that allow them to sit back in their zone and dare teams to beat them from deep. You can see their dominant home trends on the Merrimack College schedule and stats page. Currently, the team appears healthy, but it is wise to verify the Merrimack College injury report just in case any late-season fatigue has crept into the rotation.
Marist vs Merrimack College Matchup Breakdown
This game will be a battle of two defensive-minded coaches who despise fast-break points. Merrimack plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, and Marist is more than happy to join them in a half-court struggle.
- The Zone Factor: Merrimack’s zone defense held Marist to just 55 points in the first meeting. Marist must move the ball effectively; they average over 15 assists per game, and that ball movement will be the only way to crack the Warriors’ interior pressure.
- Rebounding Margin: Merrimack is statistically poor on the boards, which is the one area Marist can exploit. In the first meeting, Marist grabbed 12 offensive rebounds. If they can turn those into second-chance points, they keep the game within the number.
- Free Throw Battle: Both teams are top-50 in free throw percentage. If this game comes down to a parade to the foul line in the final two minutes, Marist’s 80.3% team average provides a slight edge for those taking the points.
Given the defensive profiles here, a college basketball betting guide would suggest looking at the Under, as both teams struggle to break 70 points when facing top-tier resistance.
Marist vs Merrimack College Predictions and Best Bets
I like Marist +3.5 in this spot. While Merrimack is the rightful favorite at home, the Red Foxes have the defensive discipline to prevent this from turning into a blowout like the Rider game. Marist lost by just two points in their last outing and has shown they can compete on the road (6-6). With the Warriors’ rebounding struggles, Marist should be able to limit Merrimack’s possessions and keep this a one-possession game until the final horn.
On the total, the Under 129.5 feels like the only way to look. Both teams are elite defensively and prefer to use almost the entire shot clock on every possession. Our model projects a 64-62 type of finish, which gives us some breathing room under the current line. Marist is 1-4 toward the over in their last five, and Merrimack hasn’t seen an over in their last four contests.
Best Bet: Marist +3.5 (-116).
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