Michigan State Spartans vs Toledo Rockets Picks and Predictions December 16th 2025

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Michigan State Spartans (9-1) host the Toledo Rockets (5-5) on Tuesday night in East Lansing. Michigan State looks to extend its strong start and refine its rotation, while Toledo seeks to rebound from a disappointing road loss.

Line Movement and Odds

  • Michigan State Spartans Spread: -16.5
  • Toledo Rockets Spread: +16.5
  • Michigan State Spartans MoneyLine: -1800
  • Toledo Rockets MoneyLine: +950
  • Total: 145.5

Michigan State opened as a heavy favorite, reflecting their depth and home-court advantage. Toledo’s inconsistency has widened the line, though their guard play keeps bettors intrigued. The total of 145.5 points suggests expectations for a moderately high-scoring contest, shaped by Michigan State’s efficiency and Toledo’s perimeter shooting. See updated numbers and market shifts on the College Basketball Odds page.

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Matchup Breakdown

Michigan State Spartans Outlook

The Spartans edged Penn State 72-68 despite committing 17 turnovers. Divine Ugochukwu starred with 23 points, shooting 8-of-10 from the field and 5-of-5 from three. Jaxon Kohler added his fifth double-double (10 points, 12 rebounds). Coach Tom Izzo emphasized lineup adjustments, moving Ugochukwu to shooting guard alongside Denham Wojcik at point. Michigan State averages 81.2 points per game and has won nine of its first ten, with their only loss coming to Duke.

Toledo Rockets Outlook

The Rockets squandered a 21-point lead in a 75-70 loss to Robert Morris, shooting just 17.2% in the second half. Sonny Wilson leads with 16.8 points per game, while Leroy Blyden Jr. adds 14.0. Sean Craig (15 points) and Austin Parks (13) provide frontcourt support. Coach Tod Kowalczyk emphasized defensive consistency, noting frustration impacted energy. Toledo averages 77.5 points per game but has struggled to close against stronger opponents. Kowalczyk is 0-5 against Michigan State in his career.

Key Matchup / Path to Victory

Michigan State’s depth and rebounding versus Toledo’s guard play is the focal battle. The Spartans must limit turnovers and dominate inside, while the Rockets rely on Wilson and Blyden’s backcourt chemistry to stay competitive.

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Injuries / Availability

Michigan State: Full roster available.
Toledo: Full roster available.

  • Michigan State is 9-1 overall, ranked No. 9 nationally.
  • Ugochukwu scored a career-high 23 points vs. Penn State.
  • Kohler has five double-doubles this season.
  • Toledo has lost two of its last three games.

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Best Bets and Prediction

Projected Final Score: Michigan State 82, Toledo 66

  • Pick: Michigan State -16.5. The Spartans’ depth and home-court edge should allow them to cover.
  • Total: Under 145.5. Defensive adjustments and Toledo’s inconsistency point to a slightly lower total.

Expect Michigan State to control the game at home, with Ugochukwu and Kohler leading the way, while Toledo’s guards keep the Rockets competitive early before fading late.

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