Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Picks and Predictions – January 31, 2026

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A key SEC clash tips Thursday night as Missouri travels to Starkville to take on Mississippi State. Game time is set for January 31 at Humphrey Coliseum, where the Bulldogs will look to protect home court as solid favorites against a struggling Mizzou squad.

Mississippi State (14–7, 5–4 SEC) continues to climb toward a top-four league seed, with their defense and rebounding leading the way. Missouri (8–13, 1–8 SEC) has dropped five straight and ranks near the bottom in most efficiency metrics. The books are laying points with the Bulldogs for good reason — the matchup leans their way across multiple key angles.

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Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds

TeamMoneylineSpreadTotal
Missouri Tigers+305+8.5 (-110)O 139.5 (-108)
Mississippi State Bulldogs-395-8.5 (-110)U 139.5 (-112)

Missouri Tigers Betting Form

It’s been a tough conference stretch for Missouri. Offensively, they’re inefficient in the halfcourt, lack a true point guard, and turn the ball over at one of the highest rates in the SEC. They do shoot the three at a decent clip, but their inability to rebound or get to the line limits second chances.

Defensively, they’ve shown flashes — but they foul too often and don’t protect the rim. Missouri’s been a poor road team all season, failing to cover in five of their last six away from Columbia.

Check the Missouri Tigers injury report for updates. For shooting splits and trends, visit the Missouri Tigers stats and results.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Form

Mississippi State is built on physicality. They rebound at an elite level, defend the paint aggressively, and wear teams down over 40 minutes. They’ve covered in four of their last five home games and are 6–2 ATS in SEC play overall.

Offensively, it’s not explosive — but they’re efficient enough inside and generate offense through second-chance points and free throws. When their guards avoid turnovers, they tend to dominate slower-paced teams like Missouri.

Monitor the Mississippi State Bulldogs injury report before locking in bets. For team metrics and game logs, see the Mississippi State Bulldogs schedule and stats.

Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Matchup Breakdown

Missouri doesn’t have the size or rebounding to survive a grind-it-out game in Starkville. Mississippi State should control the glass, win the FT battle, and get plenty of quality looks inside. Unless Mizzou shoots well from deep — and avoids foul trouble — they’re in trouble.

Key matchup edges:

  • Mississippi State leads SEC in rebound margin
  • Missouri is bottom-three in FT rate allowed
  • Bulldogs 6–2 ATS in SEC play, 4–1 ATS at home
  • Tigers 1–8 SU in conference, scoring under 65 in 5 of last 6

Expect Mississippi State to grind the tempo and wear Mizzou down over time.

Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Predictions and Best Bets

I’m laying it with Mississippi State at -8.5. Missouri hasn’t shown enough offensive life to stay close, especially against a top-tier interior defense. This game sets up well for a 10–15 point home win, even if it’s ugly.

The total feels sharp. At 139.5, there’s not much edge unless the game gets out of hand early. Lean Under slightly — but Mississippi State is the stronger angle.

Best Bet: Mississippi State Bulldogs -8.5 (-110).

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