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Murray State vs Drake Picks and Predictions – Wednesday January 21, 2026
Murray State heads to Des Moines on Wednesday, January 21, 2026, for a 7:00 PM ET tip at The Knapp Center against Drake in Missouri Valley action. This is a classic MVC spot where the better record is on the road, but the building can still matter. Murray State has been one of the hottest teams in the league, while Drake is trying to stabilize a season that’s been uneven, especially at home.
The market is leaning hard toward Murray State, laying 5.5 with a strong moneyline price. The total is 157.5, which is aggressive for a conference game unless Murray State pulls Drake into a faster scoring script. If Drake can control tempo, it gets harder for the favorite to create separation.
Murray State vs Drake Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should keep tracking the latest college basketball odds leading into tip in case the spread ticks up or the total moves.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Murray State | -236 | -5.5 (-108) | 157.5 (O -116 / U -109) |
| Drake | +184 | +5.5 (-117) | 157.5 (O -116 / U -109) |
Murray State Betting Form
Murray State is coming off an 85-81 win over Indiana State, and the bigger picture is how consistently they’re scoring. Javon Jackson’s 21 points is right in line with what Murray State has been doing all season: multiple guys can lead a night, and the offense doesn’t depend on one specific matchup to work. Fred King’s rebounding matters too, because it gives them extra possessions when the shots aren’t falling.
The betting profile is obvious. Murray State averages 87.8 points per game, shoots efficiently, and has enough three-point firepower to create separation quickly. They’re also 10-0 straight up over their last ten, which tells you this isn’t just a good team, it’s a confident team that knows how to close.
The one caution is game environment. Road favorites in the MVC can get tested when the home team slows pace and turns it into a possession game. Murray State can still win that way, but the margin becomes less predictable. For recent game logs and trend context, check Murray State stats and results.
Drake Betting Form
Drake just lost 74-67 to UIC, and that game underscored what their offense looks like when it’s working: Jalen Quinn can carry scoring load, and Drake can generate enough threes to keep pressure on the defense. The problem is consistency. Their home record is 4-7, and that’s a big reason they’re catching points in their own building.
Drake’s cover case is tied directly to tempo. They’re comfortable in slower possession games, and that matters against a Murray State team that wants to run and score. If Drake can make Murray State play in the half court and limit transition, the +5.5 becomes more valuable because the favorite has fewer chances to build margin.
The other swing factor is shot variance. Drake can make threes, but they also rely on that component more than some teams. If they’re hitting from deep, they can hang around or even threaten an upset. If they’re cold, Murray State can stretch it quickly. For home splits and matchup logs, see Drake schedule and stats.
Murray State vs Drake Matchup Breakdown
This game comes down to pace control and shot quality. Murray State’s offense is built to punish missed shots by running, and their efficiency means they don’t need many empty possessions from Drake to create a gap. If Murray State is getting early offense and clean threes, this can look like a 10-point game for long stretches.
Drake’s best counter is to slow it down and win possessions through ball security. If the Bulldogs are getting set in the half court and forcing Murray State to defend for 20+ seconds, the scoring drops and the spread becomes harder to cover. That’s also why the under looks tempting at 157.5, because it’s asking for a pretty active pace or very high efficiency for both sides.
Late-game script matters too. If Drake is within two possessions late, you can see a foul-and-free-throw finish that pushes scoring upward. If Murray State controls the game and plays clock in the final five minutes, it can both cover and still land under because the pace disappears. If you want a clean framework on totals and how pace changes late, the Expert Betting Guide is a useful reference.
Murray State vs Drake Predictions and Best Bets
I lean Murray State -5.5. The Racers’ offense is the best unit in this game, and they’ve been reliable as favorites because they can create separation without needing one specific mismatch. Drake’s home record suggests they haven’t been able to consistently impose their preferred pace, and if they don’t control tempo, Murray State can run this into the high 80s.
That said, Drake is live to cover if they can slow it down and hit threes. That’s the path. But laying 5.5 with the hotter, more efficient team is the side I’m more comfortable backing.
On the total, I lean under 157.5. That number is high for an MVC game if Drake gets any control over tempo. Murray State can score enough to threaten it by themselves, but the under is basically betting that Drake doesn’t fully cooperate and that the game spends more time in half-court possessions than track meet sequences.
Best Bet: Murray State -5.5 (-108)
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you’re betting the slate, start with the college basketball picks page to compare sides and totals, then use the NCAAB previews hub to cross-check matchup angles before you lock anything in.
For team-level scanning and conference trend work, the NCAAB teams hub helps you move quickly, and the ScoresAndStats blog is useful when you want broader betting angles beyond one game.
If you’re tracking proven performance, the best handicappers page and the leaderboard show who’s beating the market. Premium selections are available through buy picks, and you can also use the sportsbook reviews and handicappers sites reviews pages for comparisons and research.
