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Stephen F. Austin heads to New Orleans for a Southland matchup with the New Orleans Privateers on Saturday, January 17, 2026, at 6:00 PM ET at Lakefront Arena. The game streams on ESPN+. SFA comes in 14-3 with a solid 5-3 road record, while New Orleans is 7-11 and 3-2 at home, which is enough to make this more than a pure “power rating” play.
SFA is laying -5.5, and the total is 145.5. That pricing fits the way these teams tend to win games. SFA can control pace and defend, and New Orleans is more comfortable when it can keep the game close and live at the free-throw line. The spread is big enough that you’re betting on SFA’s control showing up for 40 minutes, not just a better roster.
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Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs New Orleans Privateers Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor updated college basketball odds before tipoff. For the latest college basketball odds and any late movement, it’s worth checking closer to game time.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | -273 | -5.5 (-113) | O 145.5 (-108) |
| New Orleans Privateers | +208 | +5.5 (-108) | U 145.5 (-113) |
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Betting Form
SFA’s most recent game tells you exactly how they want to win. They beat Incarnate Word 56-46 and basically strangled the game with defense and pace. Keon Thompson led with 15, Jerald Colonel chipped in 10 and eight boards, and the key detail is the opponent only scoring 46. When SFA is right, they make you work for everything and they don’t give away transition points.
Even with that slow-game script, their season profile still has enough offense to cover numbers. They’re averaging 77.6 points per game, they rebound well, and they can stretch defenses with 9.3 made threes per game. That’s a nice mix for a favorite because it gives you multiple cover paths. You can cover by grinding the opponent down, or you can cover by having one hot perimeter stretch that creates separation. The one thing I always watch with SFA is whether their pace control travels. They’ve been fine on the road at 5-3, but road favorites still need clean possessions, especially if the home team can get to the line.
For a broader look at how SFA has performed across different venues, Stephen F. Austin stats and results are useful context.
New Orleans Privateers Betting Form
New Orleans is coming off a 79-76 win over Southeastern Louisiana, and that game shows their cover script. They can score enough to stay in it, and they can ride one player’s shot-making to keep pressure on the favorite. Coleton Benson went for 30 and played basically the whole game, and that’s the part I don’t ignore. If Benson is cooking, +5.5 becomes very live because New Orleans doesn’t need to win every possession, they just need to answer.
The other big edge for New Orleans is free throws. Making 17.8 per game is a meaningful lever against a road favorite because it slows the game, creates points without needing perfect half-court offense, and it can set up the classic backdoor cover late. The home record is only 3-2, but they’ve been competitive enough in this building to believe they can hang around. Their problem is defending without fouling and finishing possessions on the glass. If they give SFA second chances, the spread can get away from them quickly.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs New Orleans Privateers Matchup Breakdown
This matchup is pace versus pressure. SFA wants the game played on their terms, fewer possessions, clean defensive rebounding, and forcing New Orleans into long half-court possessions. New Orleans would love to get to the line, create a few live-ball turnovers, and keep the scoreboard moving so SFA can’t just sit on a lead.
The three-point volume is the swing factor. SFA can create separation quickly if the threes are falling, and that’s how a 5-point game becomes 13 without much warning. New Orleans has to defend the arc without overhelping, but also has to keep SFA off the glass. That’s a tough double ask, and it’s why I lean toward the favorite covering.
The total at 145.5 is tricky because SFA can win both high and low scoring games, but their preferred script is slower. If SFA drags this into the mid-60s for possessions and New Orleans is living at the line, you can still end up near the number. If the refs let them play and SFA controls tempo, the Under starts to look better.
If you like thinking about totals through tempo and late-game fouling, the sports betting strategy guide is a good way to keep the logic consistent.
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Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs New Orleans Privateers Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is Stephen F. Austin -5.5. The road record is good enough for me to trust them in this spot, and I like that they have a defensive identity that travels. New Orleans can absolutely hang around if Benson gets hot and they’re living at the stripe, but that also requires them to defend cleanly enough to avoid SFA getting easy points in bursts. I don’t fully trust that.
On the total, I lean Under 145.5. The pace note you gave for SFA, 56.2 possessions per game, is a big deal. That’s extremely slow, and it makes Overs harder to cash unless efficiency is excellent or the free-throw count is huge. New Orleans’ best path to covering also tends to slow the game down, because free throws eat clock and reduce possessions.
If I’m picking one angle, I’d rather back the team with the clearer identity. SFA’s defense and pace control should put them in position to win this by two possessions.
Best Bet: Stephen F. Austin -5.5 (-113).
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Southland games can offer real value because the market doesn’t always price tempo and travel correctly, especially when a slow team is laying points. The best approach is comparing multiple leans, checking for late lineup news, and staying disciplined about the number you’re taking.
If you’re building a full slate, today’s college basketball picks are a good way to compare sides and totals across the board and spot where the strongest opinions are lining up.
