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St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks Picks and Predictions – Thursday, January 15, 2026
St. Thomas heads to Grand Forks on Thursday night for a Summit League matchup against North Dakota at the Betty Engelstad Sioux Center, and the market is treating the Tommies like the clearly better team. St. Thomas is laying 9.5 points on the road, which is a meaningful number in conference play, especially against a home team that has been respectable in its building. The Tommies’ 14-4 record and efficiency profile explain the price, but this is still a road environment, and North Dakota’s ability to keep games competitive at home is the only thing preventing this from being priced higher.
The total at 153.5 signals a game where both teams are expected to score, but the spread suggests St. Thomas is being projected into the low 80s with North Dakota in the low 70s. That’s essentially a “favorite controls the game” script. For bettors, the key question is whether St. Thomas’ efficiency translates cleanly on the road and whether North Dakota can generate enough offense to keep this within two possessions into the final eight minutes. If St. Thomas is getting clean looks early and finishing possessions, the cover is straightforward. If North Dakota slows pace, makes threes, and avoids extended scoring droughts, +9.5 can hang around.
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St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should keep tracking movement throughout the day on the latest college basketball odds board.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Thomas (MN) Tommies | -450 | -9.5 (-109) | O 153.5 (-110) |
| North Dakota Fighting Hawks | +350 | +9.5 (-111) | U 153.5 (-110) |
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Betting Form
St. Thomas is 14-4 overall and comes in off an 82-71 win over Oral Roberts that looked like the version of this team the market wants to back, efficient offense, balanced scoring, and enough rebounding to win the possession battle. Nick Janowski’s 23 points and 12 rebounds underscores the interior stability St. Thomas can lean on, and Isaiah Johnson-Arigu’s 17 points shows they can get perimeter production without forcing tempo. That balance matters in a road favorite spot because it reduces volatility. St. Thomas doesn’t need a hot shooting night to score, it simply needs to play its normal efficiency game.
The Tommies’ offensive efficiency is the main driver behind laying 9.5. They’re averaging 82.4 points per game and shooting 50.1% from the floor, which is elite for a team in this conference. Their effective field goal percentage is also strong, and that’s what tends to travel, because it’s tied to shot quality rather than tempo. Nolan Minessale (20.6 PPG) gives them a go-to scorer who can create in late-clock possessions, which is crucial when the home team inevitably makes a push. The only real concern is that this is still a road game, and St. Thomas is 4-3 away, so the cover comes down to whether they can avoid the one sloppy stretch where turnovers and missed threes compress the margin. For a quick snapshot of results and splits, use the St. Thomas (MN) Tommies team page. Availability matters, so monitor the St. Thomas injury report before tip.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks Betting Form
North Dakota is 9-11 overall but has been competitive at home at 6-5, and that matters for a +9.5 underdog. The Fighting Hawks are coming off an 81-79 win over Kansas City, and the most useful takeaway is that they were able to score enough to win a tight game and manage the final possessions. Garrett Anderson’s 22 points and Josh Jones’ rebounding work indicate North Dakota can get production from key pieces, and that’s the underdog requirement in this type of game. If North Dakota can get to the mid-70s, it gives itself a real chance to hang inside the number.
The limitation is efficiency. North Dakota’s shooting numbers aren’t as clean as St. Thomas’, and if the Fighting Hawks are relying too heavily on contested twos, they can go cold for long stretches. Their three-point volume, around eight makes per game, is the most important swing factor, because threes are how an underdog stays close against a team that is scoring efficiently. Eli King’s all-around role also matters because North Dakota needs secondary scoring and defensive rebounding to avoid letting St. Thomas extend possessions. At home, the Fighting Hawks can absolutely compete, but the path is narrow, they need to make enough threes, avoid foul trouble, and keep St. Thomas from getting into rhythm early. Track form and roster notes on the North Dakota Fighting Hawks team page, and check the North Dakota injury report before you lock anything in.
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks Matchup Breakdown
This matchup is about efficiency versus variance. St. Thomas is the cleaner offensive team, it shoots a high percentage, it scores consistently, and it has multiple ways to create points. That profile is why it’s laying 9.5 even on the road. If the Tommies are getting normal shot quality and they’re finishing possessions with rebounds, they can build a margin in a steady way. North Dakota’s chance comes from compressing the game. The Fighting Hawks don’t want a high-possession, open-floor game where St. Thomas can create 10 extra shot attempts. They want a more controlled pace and a three-point heavy scoring mix that can keep the margin in the single digits.
On the total, 153.5 is a number that asks for both teams to score fairly well. St. Thomas can do its part, but North Dakota’s contribution is the variable. If the Fighting Hawks are scoring efficiently at home, the over is live. If St. Thomas’ defense forces longer possessions and North Dakota’s shooting regresses, the under comes into play quickly because the favorite can still win comfortably while the underdog lands in the upper 60s or low 70s.
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks Predictions and Best Bets
I lean St. Thomas -9.5. The Tommies’ offensive efficiency and shot quality profile are the clearest advantage in the game, and it’s the type of edge that can build margin even without forcing tempo. North Dakota can compete at home, but it needs a strong shooting night and a clean turnover game to stay within two possessions, and that’s a tougher ask against a favorite that rarely beats itself when it’s executing.
On the total, I lean under 153.5. The number assumes a fairly smooth scoring night from both teams, and the more likely variable is North Dakota’s offense. If the Fighting Hawks are forced into longer possessions and can’t convert enough threes, the game can land in the high 140s even with St. Thomas scoring in its normal range. The risk is late fouling if the game stays within single digits, but the under is still the better lean given the spread and pace expectations.
Best Bet: St. Thomas (MN) -9.5 (-109).
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you’re betting college basketball daily, start with the NCAAB picks hub and compare prices on the latest college basketball odds board, because Summit League lines often move late based on pace expectations and any small lineup note that impacts shooting or rebounding, and road favorites in this range can be sensitive to that information. This is also a matchup where live betting can be sharper than pregame if you get an early read on North Dakota’s shot quality and three-point success, because if the Hawks aren’t creating clean looks from deep, it becomes hard for them to keep up with St. Thomas’ efficiency, and both the side and total can re-price quickly. For more matchup breakdowns across the slate, use the NCAAB previews hub to compare tempo and shot profiles, then track long-term performance on the handicappers leaderboard to decide whose approach fits how you bet, whether you’re targeting spreads, totals, first-half positions, or live entries built around game flow
