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The Horizon League schedule rolls into Rochester, Michigan, this Thursday as the Youngstown State Penguins visit the Oakland Golden Grizzlies. Tip-off is set for 7:00 PM ET at the Athletics Center O’rena, with the game streaming live on ESPN+. Oakland enters as the favorite, holding a strong 6-2 home record, while Youngstown State looks to overcome its road woes (3-7 away) and avenge an 85-83 home loss to the Grizzlies earlier this season.
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This is a critical positioning game for the conference tournament. Oakland currently sits in second place in the Horizon League at 10-4, while Youngstown State is fighting to climb out of the 10th spot.
Youngstown State vs. Oakland Odds
The Golden Grizzlies opened as a 4.5-point favorite. While they have the better record, Youngstown State’s high-volume three-point shooting makes them a dangerous underdog in a spread this small.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Youngstown State | +161 | +4.5 (-108) | O 155.5 (-110) |
| Oakland | -201 | -4.5 (-117) | U 155.5 (-110) |
Youngstown State Betting Form
The Penguins feature an explosive offense that averages 79.5 points per game. Their efficiency is their calling card, ranking 50th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5%. They are particularly dangerous from behind the arc, making 10.5 three-pointers per game (39th in the nation).
Leading the charge is Cris Carroll, who recently poured in 20 points against Robert Morris. He is flanked by Bryson Dawkins, who provides consistent interior and mid-range scoring. While their 12-13 overall record is modest, their recent 29-point blowout win over Purdue Fort Wayne on the road proves they can catch fire anywhere. To check if their sharpshooters are fully healthy, monitor the Youngstown State injury report for any late-breaking updates.
Oakland Betting Form
The Golden Grizzlies have turned the O’rena into a fortress this season, winning six of their eight home contests. They are a high-octane unit, averaging 83.3 points per game (53rd nationally). The offense runs through Brody Robinson (16.9 PPG), a dynamic playmaker who also facilitates for others, and Tuburu Naivalurua, who provides an efficient inside presence.
Oakland’s ability to get to the free-throw line is a major tactical advantage; they make 18.3 free throws per game, often putting opponents in foul trouble early. Despite a recent loss to Cleveland State, their home efficiency (47.4% FG) remains elite. You can find their full home/road splits on the Oakland schedule and stats page. Notably, forward Isaac Garrett is currently listed as out with a foot injury, which may test their frontcourt depth tonight.
Youngstown State vs. Oakland Matchup Breakdown
This game features two of the better offenses in the Horizon League, but they go about it in different ways. Youngstown State wants to win the math game with three-pointers, while Oakland wants to attack the rim and the free-throw line.
- The Arc vs. The Stripe: Youngstown State makes nearly three more triples per game than Oakland. If they hit their average of 10+, they can easily negate Oakland’s free-throw advantage.
- The Glass: Oakland has historically been strong at home in rebounding, but the loss of Isaac Garrett (14 rebounds in the last meeting) is a massive blow. Cris Carroll and Bryson Dawkins must exploit this gap to secure second-chance points.
- Pace of Play: Both teams are comfortable in transition. Oakland averages over 80 points at home, and Youngstown State has no problem playing a “track meet” style game.
For a deeper dive into how high-volume 3PT teams perform as road dogs, consult a college basketball betting guide.
Youngstown State vs. Oakland Predictions and Best Bets
I am taking Youngstown State +4.5. The Penguins lost the first meeting by only two points in a game where Oakland’s Isaac Garrett had a monster double-double. With Garrett sidelined tonight, the interior defense and rebounding edge for Oakland takes a hit. Youngstown State’s ability to space the floor and hit the long ball should keep this game within a possession until the final buzzer.
For the total, I like the Over 155.5. These teams combined for 168 points in their first meeting this season. With Oakland averaging 83 points at home and Youngstown State averaging nearly 80, this line feels a few points too low for a matchup between two top-60 offenses.
Best Bet: Youngstown State +4.5 (-108).
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