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Game Preview – Navy @ Penn State
The Penn State Nittany Lions look to keep their early momentum going as they host the Navy Midshipmen in a Tuesday night non-conference matchup at the Bryce Jordan Center in University Park, Pennsylvania.
Penn State (2-0) is off to a promising start under head coach Mike Rhoades, following a 87-43 win over New Haven. The Nittany Lions’ backcourt trio of Kayden Mingo, Freddie Dilione V, and Melih Tunca has been the foundation of their offensive flow, combining for efficient scoring and crisp ball movement.
Against New Haven, Penn State shot 52.5% from the field and 44% from beyond the arc while committing just six turnovers. Mingo led the way with 16 points and six assists, while Dilione and Tunca each provided key secondary scoring. Dominick Stewart added a team-high 18 points, giving Rhoades another weapon on the perimeter.
“We have multiple point guards out there,” Rhoades said. “When you have Freddie, Kayden and Melih — three guys who can handle the ball and make plays — that really helps.”
Navy (1-1) enters off a rough 97-68 loss to Yale, in which the Midshipmen struggled from deep (3-of-14 from three) and committed 19 turnovers. First-year coach Jon Perry remained optimistic after the loss, emphasizing growth through adversity.
“In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity,” Perry said. “We have to learn, develop, and stay together.”
Jinwoo Kim led Navy with 16 points in the defeat, while Austin Benigni added 14 points and four steals. Aidan Kehoe, who posted 19 in the opener, was limited to six against Yale but remains a highly efficient scorer at 12-for-14 from the field this season.
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Line Movement and Odds
Penn State opened as a heavy favorite at -24.5, with the total set around 144.5 points.
| Market | Current Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State -24.5 (-110) / Navy +24.5 (-110) |
| Total (O/U) | 144.5 Points |
| Moneyline | Penn State -8000 / Navy +2000 |
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Penn State Outlook
The Nittany Lions have shown balance and control through their first two games, relying on guard play and tempo to create open looks. Mingo leads the team with 15.5 points and 4.5 assists per game, while Tunca (13.5 PPG) and Stewart (12.5 PPG) give Rhoades three reliable scorers in the backcourt.
Penn State ranks among the top 20 nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio, reflecting how cleanly they execute their offense. The defense has also stepped up, forcing 35 turnovers over two games and holding opponents under 40% shooting.
Playing at home, the Nittany Lions have averaged 91.5 points per game, an encouraging sign for a team rebuilding its offensive identity post-Jalen Pickett. Their ability to generate ball movement through multiple playmakers has made them tough to guard early in the year.
Penn State Injury Report
No major injuries reported.
Navy Outlook
Navy’s first-year coach Jon Perry has emphasized effort and adaptability, but the Midshipmen have struggled to find consistency on offense. Through two games, they are shooting 47.2% from the floor but only 26% from three-point range.
Jinwoo Kim and Austin Benigni are the focal points of the backcourt, combining for 30 points per game. Center Aidan Kehoe adds interior efficiency, converting 85% of his shots, but Navy’s lack of size and depth could be exposed by Penn State’s speed and spacing.
If the Midshipmen can cut down on turnovers and improve their perimeter shooting, they could keep the game competitive early before Penn State’s depth takes over.
Navy Injury Report
No major injuries reported.
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
The battle of guard play defines this matchup. Penn State’s trio of Mingo, Dilione, and Tunca thrive in transition and have excellent control of tempo, while Navy must rely on disciplined half-court defense to slow them down.
Navy’s best chance to stay close will be limiting live-ball turnovers and forcing Penn State into contested threes. However, if the Lions maintain their efficiency from the field and keep sharing the ball, they should roll comfortably at home.
Learn how guard-heavy systems impact tempo and scoring in the NCAAB expert betting guide.
Betting Trends
- Penn State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games.
- The Nittany Lions are 2-0 ATS this season.
- Navy is 1-4 ATS in its last five nonconference games.
- The over is 4-1 in Penn State’s last five home contests.
- Navy has gone under in three of its last five road games.
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Prediction
Penn State’s guard depth and ball control give them a clear edge against Navy. The Nittany Lions’ pace, balance, and defensive intensity should overwhelm the Midshipmen, who are still adjusting to a new system under Coach Perry.
Projected Score: Penn State 89, Navy 58
Best Bet: Penn State -24.5
Total Lean: Under 144.5
More game previews and expert insights available in the college basketball expert betting guide.
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