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Louisville looks to keep its offensive rhythm rolling when the Cardinals host SMU in a non-conference matchup at the KFC Yum! Center on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET. The Cardinals are 9.5-point home favorites, with the total set at a lofty 161.5.
This will be a contrast in depth and polish. Louisville (12–8 overall) is showing signs of offensive cohesion, finally pushing tempo and spacing the floor with more consistency. SMU (6–13 overall) has been wildly inconsistent, especially on the defensive end, and comes into this one as a heavy underdog despite a high total that suggests offensive potential.
Both teams play fast and don’t shy away from early-clock shots. That makes the spread and total particularly live for bettors — especially when you dig into shot profiles, foul tendencies, and transition efficiency.
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SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Odds
These are the latest betting lines for this Saturday tipoff. Be sure to watch the latest college basketball odds for any movement ahead of tip.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | N/A | +9.5 (-111) | O 161.5 |
| Louisville Cardinals | N/A | -9.5 (-112) | U 161.5 |
SMU Mustangs Betting Form
SMU is running out of ways to hide its defensive flaws. The Mustangs have allowed 80+ in five of their last seven games, and the breakdowns aren’t subtle — they give up a high rate of transition buckets, commit too many fouls, and fail to close out consistently on shooters.
Offensively, it’s more hopeful. SMU likes to play fast, ranks above average in 3PT rate, and gets a decent number of free throws when they attack. They also turn the ball over too often, which compounds problems against more athletic defenses.
It’s worth checking the SMU Mustangs injury report for clarity on their guard rotation, which has fluctuated all season. You can track recent performance and matchup history on the SMU Mustangs stats and results.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Form
Louisville is finally finding some rhythm — especially at home. The Cardinals have scored 80+ in four of their last six and continue to push pace under a system that encourages quick ball movement and early drives. Their spacing has improved, and their FT attempts are climbing.
Defensively, there are still issues. Louisville gives up too many second-chance points and tends to foul at a high rate when their bigs are out of position. Still, at home, they’ve started to blitz early and play with energy — a big reason they’ve covered four of their last five in this building.
The Louisville Cardinals injury report will be important to watch for their frontcourt depth, especially with how much they rely on rim pressure. You can also check out the Louisville Cardinals schedule and stats for trends and numbers.
SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Matchup Breakdown
This game is likely to be fast and offense-heavy. Both teams rank top-75 in adjusted tempo, and neither side excels defensively. The Mustangs give up a ton in transition, while Louisville scores a high percentage of its points on the break.
The shooting profile also favors Louisville. They get to the rim far more often and draw more fouls. SMU will need to shoot well from deep to stay in this, but they’ve struggled to string together consistent shooting stretches — especially on the road.
Key angles:
- Tempo edge: Both play fast — strong case for Over
- FT rate: Louisville generates more chances and shoots well from the line
- Fouling: SMU commits more and lacks interior size to defend without fouling
- Home edge: Louisville has played with energy early — 1H spread could have value
This is a pace-up game with flaws on both ends, and that opens the door for scoring volatility.
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SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Predictions and Best Bets
The spread is wide, but it’s probably justified. Louisville’s athleticism and home-court energy are real advantages, especially against an SMU team that hasn’t traveled well and can’t seem to stop anyone for a full 40 minutes. I lean Louisville -9.5, especially if you can get it at -9 flat.
Total-wise, it’s high — 161.5 is a big number — but it’s hard to argue for the Under. Both teams play fast, neither defends well, and both have shown late-game fouling tendencies. If you trust the pace and think SMU can do its part, the Over is still the right side.
Secondary lean: Louisville 1H -5 or better. They’ve started strong at home lately, and SMU’s first-half defensive metrics are bottom-tier.
I’m siding with the tempo and matchup-driven scoring here.
Best Bet: Over 161.5.
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