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North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Game Preview
North Dakota heads to Saint Paul on Thursday night for a Summit Conference matchup with St. Thomas at Lee & Penny Anderson Arena. The Tommies are priced as a big home favorite, and the number reflects two very different season profiles. St. Thomas has been one of the league’s most reliable home teams, while North Dakota has been more inconsistent but is playing its best basketball right now with a three-game win streak and two straight road wins.
The betting handicap comes down to whether North Dakota’s current offensive form can travel into a tougher defensive environment. If the Fighting Hawks score efficiently early and keep their turnover count under control, they can hang inside a number this large. If St. Thomas speeds the game up with pressure and creates extra possessions, the Tommies have enough scoring depth to separate quickly and turn this into a second-half margin game.
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North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should keep tracking movement throughout the day on the latest college basketball odds board.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota Fighting Hawks | +550 | +13.5 (-120) | O 153.5 |
| St. Thomas (MN) Tommies | -1000 | -13.5 (-106) | U 153.5 |
North Dakota Fighting Hawks Betting Form
North Dakota is 12-12 overall and has been a better bet lately than its record suggests. The Fighting Hawks have won three straight and are coming off a 93-86 win at Denver where Greyson Uelmen erupted for 30 points on 60% shooting. Eli King added 17 points and eight boards, and that balance matters because North Dakota’s best chance to stay competitive here is to avoid becoming a one-man offense that can be schemed out over 40 minutes.
The offense has been steady enough to keep them live in underdog spots. They average 77.6 points per game and make 8.2 threes per contest, so they can score in the halfcourt and they can also erase mini-runs with perimeter shooting. The more encouraging sign is the recent road form. North Dakota has won its last two away games, beating Oral Roberts by 17 and Denver by seven, which suggests the group is traveling with confidence and playing cleaner possessions. The concern is that those games did not come against a defense that can create turnovers the way St. Thomas can. For a quick snapshot of their recent results and trends, use the North Dakota Fighting Hawks team page. Availability matters, so monitor the North Dakota injury report before tip.
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Betting Form
St. Thomas is 17-5 overall and has been dominant at home at 11-1, which is why the market is comfortable laying -13.5. The Tommies are efficient, they finish possessions, and they have multiple scoring options that keep opponents from loading up on one primary threat. They just beat South Dakota 90-78, and they did it with strong shot-making and consistent pressure across the full game. Nick Janowski led that one with 23 points on 61.5% shooting, and the overall offensive profile has been elite.
The biggest strength is efficiency. St. Thomas is among the national leaders in field goal percentage at 50.3%, and that matters against an underdog because it reduces volatility. You do not need a three-point heater to build a lead if you are consistently getting quality looks and converting at a high rate. They also create extra possessions with defense. The Tommies average 8.4 steals per game, and that pressure is the pathway to covering big home numbers, because live-ball turnovers become quick points and turn a close game into separation fast. Nolan Minessale is the headline scorer at 19.9 points per game, and the supporting pieces have been reliable enough to keep the offense rolling even if one player starts slow. Track form and roster notes on the St. Thomas (MN) Tommies team page, and check the St. Thomas (MN) injury report before you lock anything in.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Matchup Breakdown
North Dakota’s upset path is offense first. They need Uelmen and King to keep producing, but more importantly they need shot quality that holds up against ball pressure. If North Dakota is comfortable initiating offense, limits live-ball turnovers, and makes St. Thomas defend in the halfcourt, the +13.5 becomes interesting because the Fighting Hawks can score enough to answer runs. The Tommies will try to take that away by turning defense into pace. If St. Thomas is generating steals and forcing North Dakota into rushed looks, this spread can get covered in a hurry because North Dakota will be playing from behind and taking lower-quality shots late in possessions.
The total sits at 153.5, and this is where game script matters. If St. Thomas turns this into a transition game with extra possessions, the over becomes live quickly. If North Dakota protects the ball and shortens the game, the under is more viable, especially if St. Thomas gets a big lead and starts playing more clock in the second half. Your model leans under even though the raw projection is near the number, and the free throw note matters too. In a game with a big spread, late fouling can inflate totals, but if both teams are leaving points at the line, it can also keep an under alive even when the tempo is higher than expected.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Predictions and Best Bets
I lean St. Thomas -13.5. The home profile is strong enough to trust, and the efficiency edge is real. North Dakota is playing well, and the recent road wins matter, but the matchup is a step up because St. Thomas can create turnovers and turn them into points. That is the main pathway to clearing a number this size. If St. Thomas wins the possession battle and maintains its normal shooting efficiency, it can separate by double digits without needing late-game chaos.
For the total, I lean under 153.5 on the idea that North Dakota’s best chance to compete is to protect the ball and play more halfcourt. That said, the side is the cleaner play because St. Thomas can cover even if the total lands in a wide range. If St. Thomas pressure produces transition points, it helps the spread regardless of whether the game becomes a shootout.
Best Bet: St. Thomas (MN) -13.5 (-106).
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you’re betting the Summit or playing a full Thursday slate, the best approach is to let the market tell you what matters, then confirm it with form and matchup fit. Start at the NCAAB odds board to see where spreads and totals are moving, because late shifts often signal lineup news, a pace expectation change, or sharp interest on one side. From there, use the NCAAB previews hub to compare game scripts across the slate and spot teams that are being priced differently than their recent performance suggests.
Once you have your short list, check the NCAAB picks page to see how verified handicappers are attacking the board and whether they’re lining up with your read on pace, turnovers, and free-throw impact. If you want to lean into consistency over one-off results, the handicappers leaderboard helps you separate short-term heaters from long-term edges. That is especially useful on big-spread games like this one, where the margin outcome can swing late and you want a bettor whose record aligns with the bet type you’re making.
