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St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs South Dakota Coyotes Picks and Predictions – Saturday January 24, 2026
St. Thomas (MN) heads to Vermillion for a Summit League road test that looks simple on the board and tricky in practice. The Tommies are 16-5 and priced like the better team, but South Dakota has been a different animal at home (9-2). With a 2:00 PM ET tip at the Sanford Coyote Sports Center, this is the kind of spot where the favorite can control the game and still sweat the number late.
The matchup also carries some recent context. These teams just saw each other earlier this month, and the same themes show up again: St. Thomas wants clean, structured possessions and high-percentage twos, while South Dakota is comfortable playing faster and letting offense drive the script. That combination is exactly why you get a big spread and a big total in the same game.
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs South Dakota Coyotes Odds
These are the current betting lines, but Summit League numbers can swing on market timing, so monitor the latest college basketball odds before tip.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Thomas (MN) | -445 | -9.5 (-112) | 161.5 |
| South Dakota | +322 | +9.5 (-113) | 161.5 |
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Betting Form
St. Thomas (MN) is built like a favorite you can trust more often than most mid-majors. They score efficiently inside the arc, they don’t live on bailout shots, and they generally avoid the live-ball mistakes that turn road games into chaos. When the Tommies are humming, the possessions feel repetitive for the opponent: solid spacing, a paint touch, and a clean look that forces you to score back-to-back-to-back.
For spread betting, that “no empty possessions” profile matters. Laying 9.5 on the road is never comfortable, but St. Thomas can create separation without relying on heaters from deep. If they’re finishing at the rim and keeping South Dakota out of transition, they can build a margin that holds.
If you want a quick place to track team-level results and conference context, use the NCAAB teams hub as your starting point.
South Dakota Coyotes Betting Form
South Dakota’s case starts with the building. A 9-2 home record tells you they’re comfortable with their shooting backdrops and their pace, and they’re not afraid to turn games into scoring races. That matters a lot with a total sitting in the 160s, because the underdog can cover by simply forcing the favorite to play faster than it wants.
Offensively, the Coyotes have enough creation to pressure a defense for 40 minutes, especially if they’re getting to the line and converting free points. That’s the cleanest path to staying inside +9.5 even if St. Thomas is scoring efficiently. South Dakota doesn’t need to win the efficiency battle if they can win the possession count and live at the stripe.
For their game logs and splits, you can reference South Dakota stats and results.
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs South Dakota Coyotes Matchup Breakdown
This game is pace versus control. South Dakota wants to speed you up, take early threes, and keep pressure on the scoreboard. St. Thomas would rather grind you into half-court execution, get quality twos, and make you defend full possessions without mistakes. The side and total both hinge on who imposes that identity first.
Shot profile is the next layer. St. Thomas is at its best when it’s scoring inside efficiently and limiting turnovers, because that cuts off the easy South Dakota points that come from runouts and quick-hit possessions. If the Tommies are taking care of the ball, South Dakota has to score against a set defense more often, and the underdog’s cover path narrows.
Rebounding and free throws are South Dakota’s swing factors. If the Coyotes can extend possessions and turn the game into a whistle-heavy, stop-start track meet, +9.5 becomes more playable and the over stays live. If St. Thomas clears the glass and keeps fouls under control, the favorite can win the math battle without needing a shooting spike.
If you’re newer to tying matchup edges to the actual markets, the Expert Betting Guide is a helpful reference point for how pace, efficiency, and late-game variance show up differently in spreads versus totals.
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs South Dakota Coyotes Predictions and Best Bets
I’m aligned with South Dakota +9.5. The number is asking St. Thomas to win comfortably in one of the tougher Summit road environments, against a home team that can score and doesn’t have to play perfectly to stay within range. Even if St. Thomas controls long stretches, South Dakota’s ability to create quick points can erase margins fast.
The way I see it, St. Thomas can absolutely win this game and still land in that 4-to-8-point window. That’s often what happens when a disciplined favorite plays well but the underdog keeps getting answers at home. You’re buying a decent cushion in a game that profiles as competitive for longer than the spread suggests.
On the total, I lean under 161.5, but it’s not my favorite market. The number is high for a reason, and South Dakota’s pace can drag you into an over even when the efficiency is only “fine.” The under is more attractive if you believe St. Thomas controls tempo, limits transition, and forces longer possessions that reduce total shot volume.
Best Bet: South Dakota +9.5
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you’re betting the full Saturday slate, the college basketball picks page is the fastest way to compare sides and totals across conferences without getting lost in noise. For matchup writeups in one place, the NCAAB previews hub is built for scanning angles quickly.
If you want to follow proven results, start with the best handicappers and verify current form on the leaderboard. When you want higher-confidence positions, you can access premium analysis through Buy Picks.
For broader betting education and weekly angles beyond one game, the main ScoresAndStats blog is a good add, and if you’re evaluating where to wager or who to trust, the sportsbook reviews plus handicappers sites reviews keep that process organized.
