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The Southland Conference race heats up on Monday night as the New Orleans Privateers travel to Nacogdoches to face the juggernaut Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. Tip-off is set for 7:30 PM ET at William R. Johnson Coliseum, with the broadcast airing on ESPN+. This matchup features a massive disparity in records, as SFA sits at a dominant 25-3 (18-1 in conference) while New Orleans enters at 14-15 (11-8 in conference).
Stephen F. Austin is arguably the most dangerous team in the conference, especially when playing on their home floor. The Lumberjacks are a perfect 15-0 at home this season, turning Johnson Coliseum into a fortress where opponents rarely find a rhythm. New Orleans, however, is not to be overlooked; they have managed to stay competitive in the middle of the Southland pack and are coming off a gutsy win over Lamar. While they enter as double-digit underdogs, the Privateers have shown a knack for sticking around in games thanks to their high-volume free-throw shooting and physicality on the boards.
The spread is currently set at a substantial 13.5 points, reflecting SFA’s home dominance. However, with New Orleans fighting for a better seed in the upcoming conference tournament, the motivation level for the Privateers will be at an all-time high. Whether they can actually breach the Lumberjacks’ perfect home record is the question of the night.
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New Orleans vs Stephen F. Austin Odds
Bettors should keep a close eye on the latest college basketball odds as tip-off approaches, as these lines may shift based on late-breaking news.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| New Orleans | +642 | +13.5 (-114) | O 149.5 (-110) |
| Stephen F. Austin | -1107 | -13.5 (-112) | U 149.5 (-110) |
New Orleans Betting Form
The New Orleans Privateers are a battle-tested group that thrives on making games “ugly.” They average 76.6 points per game, but their most significant statistical advantage is their ability to get to the free-throw line. Ranking 17th nationally in both makes and attempts, the Privateers use their size and aggression to force whistles. MJ Thomas (19 points, 8 rebounds in his last outing) and TJ Cope are the primary beneficiaries of this style, often finding themselves at the charity stripe during crucial stretches.
A look at the New Orleans stats and results shows a team that is better on the road than their 8-11 away record might suggest. They possess a top-100 rebounding rate (37.5 per game), which allows them to limit second-chance points—a necessity when facing an efficient offense like SFA. Before betting, checking the New Orleans injury report is vital, as any absence in their frontcourt rotation would severely hamper their ability to match SFA’s size in the paint.
The Privateers are essentially playing for pride and positioning. While they haven’t been consistent enough to challenge for the top of the conference, they have enough veteran leadership in Jakevion Buckley and Churchill Abass to avoid getting blown out, provided they can handle the initial first-half surge that SFA usually brings at home.
Stephen F. Austin Betting Form
Stephen F. Austin is the gold standard of the Southland this season. Their 25-3 record is no fluke; it’s the result of an offense that averages 77.7 points per game while shooting 36.9% from deep. Keon Thompson leads the charge, averaging 18.3 points and 4.2 assists per game. He is a multi-dimensional threat who can either pull up from the perimeter or find Lateef Patrick for open looks.
The Stephen F. Austin schedule and stats highlight their invincibility at home. Not only are they 15-0 in Nacogdoches, but they often win by significant margins. Their defense is just as impressive as their offense, ranking high in turnover percentage and limiting opponents to low-quality looks. However, bettors should monitor the Stephen F. Austin injury report to ensure their primary ball-handlers are available to deal with the Privateers’ physical defensive pressure.
The Lumberjacks are currently on a 13-game winning streak. While they were pushed to the limit in their last game against Nicholls (an 81-78 win), that close call might actually serve as a wake-up call to ensure they don’t overlook a New Orleans team that is more talented than its sub-.500 record indicates.
New Orleans vs Stephen F. Austin Matchup Breakdown
This game will be decided at the free-throw line and on the glass. New Orleans needs to turn this into a parade to the stripe to slow the game down and keep the crowd out of it. If they can get SFA’s big men into early foul trouble, it opens up the lane for MJ Thomas to operate. SFA, conversely, wants to push the pace. They average nearly 78 points but do so with a calculated efficiency that ranks 60th in 3PT percentage.
If SFA starts hitting from the outside early, this could get out of hand quickly. New Orleans doesn’t have the perimeter speed to chase the Lumberjacks’ shooters for 40 minutes. However, New Orleans has shown they can dominate the offensive glass, and second-chance points are the ultimate “neutralizer” for a home-court advantage.
- SFA is 15-0 at home this season.
- New Orleans ranks 17th in the nation in free throws made per game.
- Keon Thompson (SFA) averages 18.3 PPG and 4.2 APG.
- New Orleans averages 37.5 rebounds per game (99th nationally).
New Orleans vs Stephen F. Austin Predictions and Best Bets
While Stephen F. Austin is the much better team on paper, 13.5 points is a lot to cover in a conference rivalry game late in February. New Orleans’ ability to draw fouls and control the boards gives them the tools to keep this game within a reasonable margin. Our projection shows a more competitive battle than the oddsmakers suggest, with SFA winning but failing to cover the heavy spread.
For the total, we are leaning toward the Under 149.5. SFA has shown a tendency to slow the pace down in conference play (64.1 possessions per game), and if New Orleans is successfully drawing fouls, the game will be filled with stops that prevent either team from going on a massive scoring run. A projected final score in the 79-68 range keeps this comfortably under the line.
Best Bet: New Orleans +13.5 (-114)
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