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Troy Trojans vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Picks and Predictions – January 7, 2026
Two high-tempo Sun Belt squads clash Wednesday night as the Troy Trojans head to First National Bank Arena to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Tipoff is set for 8:00 PM ET in Jonesboro, where the Red Wolves are laying -3.5 as home favorites. Troy enters at 9–6 overall and looking to bounce back after a frustrating home loss, while Arkansas State is riding a wave of offensive momentum and has won four of its last five.
This game has the makings of a shootout. The total sits at a lofty 158.5, one of the highest on the Wednesday board — and not without reason. Both teams play fast, shoot early in the shot clock, and have struggled with defensive consistency. The question becomes whether either side can string together stops late, or if this turns into a shot-making contest that comes down to the final possession.
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Troy Trojans vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Odds
Below are the current odds for this Sun Belt showdown. Stay locked into the latest college basketball odds for real-time line updates.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Trojans | +130 | +3.5 (-110) | O 158.5 (-110) |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | -155 | -3.5 (-110) | U 158.5 (-110) |
Troy Trojans Betting Form
Troy continues to hang around the top half of the Sun Belt thanks to volume scoring and offensive rebounding. They average over 80 points per game and push tempo at every opportunity, even off made baskets. Their guard-heavy offense attacks in transition and loves to fire from deep, but defensive lapses and foul trouble have made late-game execution a recurring issue.
The Trojans give up too many second-chance points and tend to get caught out of position in half-court sets. Still, they’re capable of catching fire and putting up 45+ in either half. Whether they can hold up on the road against a team like Arkansas State — which can match pace and punish mistakes — is the real concern. Check the Troy injury report for updates before the game, and for trends and stats, visit the Troy stats and results.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Form
Arkansas State has quietly become one of the most dangerous scoring teams in the conference. They’ve topped 85 points in four of their last five and are finding rhythm behind an inside-out attack that puts real pressure on opposing defenses. At home, they’re even tougher — pushing tempo, forcing turnovers, and turning defense into offense with ease.
Defensively, the Red Wolves aren’t elite, but they are opportunistic. They force just enough turnovers to flip momentum, and they do a better job than Troy at limiting second chances. If they can avoid early foul trouble and protect the rim in transition, they’ll be in a strong position to cover this short number. For updates on lineup status, review the Arkansas State injury report and dive into their full Arkansas State schedule and stats.
Troy Trojans vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Matchup Breakdown
This is one of the fastest-paced matchups of the night. Both teams rank near the top of the Sun Belt in tempo, shot attempts per game, and offensive possessions. What separates Arkansas State slightly is their ability to win physical battles on the glass and finish at the rim. Troy shoots more threes, but their defensive rebounding and foul discipline lag behind.
Expect runs in both directions. Arkansas State may have a slight edge in execution and late-game composure, while Troy will need to win the turnover battle and cash in from deep to hang inside the number. The home-court edge is also real — the Red Wolves are 6–2 ATS in their last eight at home.
- Tempo: both teams rank top-50 nationally in pace
- Rebounding + rim scoring edge to Arkansas State
- Troy relies more on outside shooting volatility
- Total could get pushed higher if pace holds early
Need help evaluating how tempo impacts totals? Check out our college basketball betting guide for tips on high-possession game strategies.
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Troy Trojans vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Predictions and Best Bets
Arkansas State has the tools to cover here. They’ve been more efficient offensively, more consistent on the boards, and play better situational defense than Troy. If the pace holds, the Red Wolves can out-execute Troy down the stretch and take control late. At -3.5, the number is still within range for a home team that can score 85+.
As for the total, it’s high — but deserved. This could easily be 86–78 type of game, especially if both teams stay out of foul trouble early and settle into a back-and-forth rhythm. Lean Over 158.5, but the side has more conviction.
Best Bet: Arkansas State -3.5 (-110)
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