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San Diego State heads to the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas to face UNLV on Saturday, January 24, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET, with CBS carrying this Mountain West game. San Diego State is 13-5 and has traveled well (3-1 away), while UNLV is 10-8 with a solid 7-3 home mark. SDSU is laying -5.5 in a building that can get loud, which tells you the market sees a real class edge, not just “slight favorite.”
The matchup is interesting because UNLV has been winning and scoring, and they can get to the line at a top-end rate. That can keep underdogs alive against better teams. San Diego State’s edge is that they’re usually the more stable team possession-to-possession, and their shooting profile is better than the public tends to assume.
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San Diego State Aztecs vs UNLV Runnin’ Rebels Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor updated numbers on the latest college basketball odds.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State Aztecs | -244 | -5.5 (-110) | O 148.5 |
| UNLV Runnin’ Rebels | +187 | +5.5 (-113) | U 148.5 |
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Form
San Diego State’s loss to Grand Canyon (70-69) is the kind of game that doesn’t scare me much from a betting standpoint. Close loss, one-possession finish, and enough balanced production to suggest their floor is still intact. Harrington’s scoring and Byrd’s work on the glass are examples of how SDSU can win without one guy carrying everything.
What makes SDSU attractive as a road favorite is that the offense is more efficient than many people assume. You’ve got them at 81.3 points per game on 47.8% shooting with 36.7% from three. That combo matters because it means they can score in the half court, and they’re not dependent on transition or only free throws. The assist number (16.2 per game) also fits a team that can find good looks when the game slows.
The other key here is their road profile. A 3-1 away record suggests they travel with maturity, and that’s important in a spot like UNLV where runs happen fast. For broader season context and comparison, the NCAAB teams hub is useful when you’re trying not to overreact to one result.
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels Betting Form
UNLV is playing with momentum. The 86-76 win over Utah State is a strong offensive performance, and they’ve won three straight. They also have the kind of scoring depth that makes home underdogs annoying, because you don’t need one guy to go off. Gibbs-Lawhorn and Jones can both carry stretches, and if the bench minutes are positive, UNLV can keep the pressure on for 40.
The free-throw profile is the biggest betting note. If UNLV is attempting 26.6 free throws per game, that’s a real lever against a favorite laying multiple possessions. Free throws slow the game, keep you from falling behind by 12 in a blink, and they create late-game points that help both covers and overs. It also means UNLV’s offense can survive cold shooting spells, which is important against a defense that usually forces you to earn everything.
At home, UNLV’s 7-3 record is solid, and the Thomas & Mack Center can create real energy swings. The cover path is keeping this close until late, then turning it into a free-throw game where +5.5 is valuable.
San Diego State Aztecs vs UNLV Runnin’ Rebels Matchup Breakdown
This feels like a possession-quality game more than a pure tempo game. UNLV wants to attack the rim and draw contact. SDSU wants to defend without fouling, control the glass, and make UNLV score over set defense. If SDSU keeps UNLV off the line, the Rebels have to win with shotmaking, and that’s where SDSU’s edge usually shows up.
On the other end, SDSU’s spacing and three-point shooting matters because it can punish UNLV if they collapse too much to take away drives. If SDSU is getting clean threes and converting, UNLV is forced into a higher-scoring script, and that’s where the favorite is more likely to cover because the game opens up.
The total at 148.5 is tricky. The combined scoring averages suggest it should be reachable, but these are the kinds of conference games where defensive intensity rises, possessions get more physical, and you can see a lot of “good shots that don’t drop” for stretches. The free-throw factor can push it up late, though. If this is a one- to two-possession game in the final minute, you can add 10 points quickly.
San Diego State Aztecs vs UNLV Runnin’ Rebels Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is San Diego State -5.5. I trust SDSU’s stability more, and I like that they can score efficiently in the half court. UNLV’s home form and free-throw edge are real, but I think SDSU has enough shotmaking to avoid getting dragged into a rock fight where every point is at the line. If SDSU plays clean and doesn’t give UNLV a massive free-throw gap, the talent and efficiency edges show up.
That said, I don’t love laying -5.5 in the Thomas & Mack Center. UNLV’s path to hanging around is obvious and repeatable: attack downhill, draw fouls, and keep it close enough that late free throws decide the spread. So while SDSU is my side lean, it’s not a bet I’d force at a bad number. If this moves to -6.5 or -7, it starts getting uncomfortable.
For the total, I lean under 148.5. The number feels a touch high for a conference game where SDSU will try to control the game defensively and limit the free-throw parade. The under risk is obvious: if UNLV gets to the line all night or SDSU hits threes early, you can lose an under quickly. But if SDSU dictates more possessions in the half court, 148.5 is a lot to clear.
Best Bet: San Diego State Aztecs -5.5 (-110).
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Mountain West games are where bettors get paid for understanding style clashes. Some teams travel fine because they can score in the half court and defend without fouling. Others are much more venue-dependent because they need energy and free throws to stabilize their offense.
For more plays across the slate, check today’s college basketball picks and compare sides and totals across the board. Over time, the edge comes from being selective and price-sensitive, especially in conference games where the market is usually tight.
