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USC vs Cal Poly Week 1 Betting Preview
Change defines the USC Trojans as they open the season on Nov. 3 at the Galen Center against Cal Poly
Coach Eric Musselman overhauled his roster after a 17-18 finish in his first Big Ten campaign. Thirteen newcomers join the Trojans, including graduate forward Chad Baker-Mazara, who helped Auburn reach the Final Four, and 7-foot-5 transfer Gabe Dynes from Youngstown State.
Cal Poly counters with experience. The Mustangs reached the Big West semifinals and return sophomore guard Peter Bandelj, last season’s top scorer at 10.4 points per game. Coach Mike DeGeorge’s team averaged 82.1 points and brings a roster featuring players from nine countries.
USC’s defense shined in an exhibition win over Loyola Marymount, holding the Lions to 28 percent shooting in a 60-51 result. Musselman called the first-half defense “really, really good,” while forward Terrance Williams II, the lone returning starter, praised the team’s toughness.
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Line Movement and Odds
The NCAA odds page lists USC as a heavy favorite, opening around –23.5 with the total near 163.5. Early betting pushed the line slightly higher as public money leaned toward the home team.
Sharps have shown limited resistance on Cal Poly, with the total holding steady near 164. Expect the Trojans to control tempo, forcing Cal Poly into half-court sets where length and rim protection become decisive.
Matchup Breakdown
USC Outlook: Musselman’s new roster adds frontcourt size and athleticism. Baker-Mazara’s shot-making and Dynes’ rim protection complement Williams II’s leadership. Defensive pressure and rebounding will dictate whether the Trojans cover the large spread.
Cal Poly Outlook: The Mustangs’ experienced backcourt should test USC’s defensive rotation early. Bandelj and company thrive in transition, but defensive lapses remain a concern after allowing over 82 points per game last season.
For bettors, the contrasting styles matter: Cal Poly pushes pace while USC wants control. Watch how early possessions shape the total movement.
Check out the Expert Betting Guide for more insight into reading line adjustments and tempo metrics.
Injuries and Conditions
USC Trojans
- Terrance Williams II – returned from last season’s injury, expected full participation.
- No new injuries reported entering Week 1.
Cal Poly Mustangs
- No significant injuries reported for the opener.
Review full updates on each team’s injury report
Game is indoors at the Galen Center, so weather won’t impact totals or pace.
Best Bets and Prediction
USC is 8-2 ATS in its past ten home openers, while Cal Poly has struggled as a double-digit underdog on the road. The Trojans’ defense should smother the Mustangs’ spacing, and their bench depth could stretch the margin late.
Projected Score: USC 88, Cal Poly 64
Best Bet: USC –23.5
Lean: Under 164, expecting defensive control and limited late scoring.
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