Sparks vs Mercury Picks and Predictions

The Sparks Can Win If They Leave It All on the Floor

For the Los Angeles Sparks, this is it — win or go home. With only two games left, the playoff path is narrow but not closed. Tuesday’s showdown in Phoenix against the Mercury is critical.

Currently ninth in the WNBA standings at 20-22, the Sparks must win their final two games (against Phoenix and Las Vegas) and hope the Seattle Storm stumble against Golden State.

Historic Performance Sparks Confidence

Los Angeles is coming off a 91-77 win over Dallas, led by Julie Allemand’s historic night. Allemand made WNBA history as the first player to score 20+ points with five steals without missing a single shot. She finished 8-for-8 from the field, including three triples and two free throws.

“I don’t care about shooting most of the time,” Allemand said. “I’m just trying to read the game. I had more chances than usual, so I took it.”

She also added four assists and committed zero turnovers — the kind of poise LA needs if they want to survive this final playoff sprint.

Past Meetings and Tiebreaks

The Sparks have dropped all three games against Phoenix this season — but only by a combined 16 points. That means LA has been close. And with the tiebreaker over Seattle, a playoff push is still very much in play.

The Mercury Can Win If They Stay Locked In

The Phoenix Mercury are already playoff-bound, sitting at 27-15. But they’ve still got plenty on the line. With home court secured for Round 1, the focus now shifts to seeding improvement.

While the No. 4 seed seems all but confirmed, Phoenix can jump to No. 3 only if they win out and Las Vegas loses both of its final games. It’s a long shot, but not impossible.

Alyssa Thomas Leads the Charge

MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas continues to break records. She just passed Caitlin Clark’s single-season assist mark with 342 after dishing out 10 dimes in Saturday’s narrow 87-84 loss to Connecticut. That game snapped a six-game win streak, but Thomas was sharp.

“It’s been a great change for me this year with a new offense,” Thomas said. “I hit the open person, and the rest is on them to hit the shot.”

Thomas is now in the thick of the MVP race alongside A’ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier — all of whom have been dominant in different ways.

You can explore the full MVP outlook in this Caitlin Clark odds and prediction breakdown.

Sami Whitcomb: “No Switch You Can Flip”

Phoenix had a fourth-quarter collapse in the last game — giving up a seven-point lead to the Sun.

“That level’s not good enough,” said sharpshooter Sami Whitcomb. “There’s not a switch you can flip. We have to lock in now.”

Expect the Mercury to come out aggressive as they try to reclaim rhythm heading into the postseason.

Picks and Predictions for Sparks vs Mercury

Here’s how this one breaks down:

Mercury Moneyline: -220
Sparks Moneyline: +185
Over/Under Total: 161.5 points

Phoenix has more depth and playoff experience, but LA is desperate — and dangerous. Expect a high-effort performance from the Sparks, but the Mercury’s control and consistency should win out.

Want more betting breakdowns? Dive into the latest WNBA picks and compare spreads via the WNBA odds board.

Sparks vs Mercury: Do-or-Die vs Playoff Poise

It’s desperation vs discipline.

The Sparks are fighting for their season. They’ve shown flashes of offensive brilliance and are leaning on the rise of Julie Allemand and Lenyn Sosa for one final surge. With a win here, and a bit of help, they could punch their postseason ticket.

The Mercury, meanwhile, want to fine-tune their execution and maintain momentum before Round 1. With Alyssa Thomas leading the way, they’ve become one of the most versatile, dangerous teams in the league.

Expect a playoff atmosphere — because for the Sparks, it already is.

Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks Picks and Predictions September 9th 2025