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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Pick & Prediction OCT 19TH 2020
Two teams that seemed to be steamrolling toward a clash of unbeatens now find themselves looking to recover.
Although the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are each 4-1 and leading their respective divisions in the AFC, each will be coming off their first defeats Monday at Orchard Park, N.Y. The game got pushed back four days because of dominoes related to COVID-19 developments and kick off at 5 p.m. ET.
Each team allowed 40 points in their recent losses, creating deficits neither Patrick Mahomes nor Josh Allen could overcome quarterbacking the Chiefs and Bills, respectively.
Mahomes was constantly hounded and sacked three times by the Oakland Raiders in a 40-32 loss, leaving him to scurry quickly from the pocket and often look over the top in third-and-long situations.
"We can't just rely on the big play," said Mahomes, who completed a season-low 51.2 percent of his passes against Las Vegas. "We have to execute at a high level and when the big play comes, you have to hit it."
Although Mahomes often clicks on those looks, the end of a 13-game winning streak -- including playoffs, highlighted by last season's Super Bowl victory -- proved he is mortal.
Now, Mahomes must move on from a setback without experienced receiver Sammy Watkins (hamstring) and guard Kelechi Osemele (knee).
"I can help with different calls and putting people in better positions," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. "Everyone has a little piece of the pie here."
That includes the Kansas City defense, which permitted 20 points or less in each of the Chiefs' first four games before allowing 490 yards to the Raiders, including five chunk plays of 40-plus yards.
Botched execution hurt the Bills in their first defeat and now they have a short week to recover after falling to Tennessee, 42-16, on Tuesday. Two interceptions and long returns Buffalo gave up on special teams proved fatal against a virus-plagued opponent that had practiced only once in 12 days.
One of Allen's interceptions bounded off the hands of a receiver, but the Bills quarterback will still be looking to rebound against the Chiefs. That will be a collective effort, though, after his defense could only get him the ball twice in the final 17 minutes against Tennessee.
Allen relies on one of the NFL's hottest receivers, Stephon Diggs, who ranks second in the league with 509 receiving yards. Allen, meanwhile, ranks second in passing yards (1,589) and touchdown strikes (14).
Those impressive numbers also present a concern, however. The Bills have become one-dimensional, gaining just 469 yards on the ground to rank 28th in rushing after ranking eighth in the NFL last season.
"The number of opportunities, run versus pass, has been a little bit different," Buffalo coach Sean McDermott said. "So, that would be one piece. Then the other piece is making sure that we're staying true to our philosophy in terms of what we're doing up front. It's a mentality."
Ground opportunities could exist against the Chiefs, who rank 29th against the rush, allowing 157.6 yards per game. Allen, however, is focused on overall execution.
"We're not going to let this one loss define us," he said. "We've got to be better, we've got to be prepared and we've got to come out swinging early."
The Chiefs' ground game (13th overall, 119.3 rush yards per game) looks like it will soon get a boost as former New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell tweeted Thursday afternoon that he has joined Kansas City -- news that the Chiefs seemed to confirm with a subsequent tweet. The Jets cut Bell, a three-time Pro Bowl selection, Tuesday as the former three-time 1,000-yard rusher currently has just 19 carries and 74 yards in two games this season.
Bell will not be available to play Monday due to coronavirus-testing protocols, according to ESPN.
Buffalo wide receiver John Brown (knee) and cornerback Tre'Davious White (back) resumed light workouts after missing Tuesday's loss to Tennessee. Tight end Dawson Knox is dealing with a calf injury.
--Field Level Media
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Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills
Player | Position | Lineup |
---|---|---|
Frank Clark | primary: Right Defensive End | Starter |
Eric Fisher | primary: Left Tackle | Starter |
Mecole Hardman | primary: Tight End | Starter |
Tyreek Hill | primary: Wide Receiver | Starter |
Anthony Hitchens | primary: Left Linebacker | Starter |
Chris Jones | primary: Left Defensive Tackle | Starter |
Travis Kelce | primary: Tight End | Starter |
Tanoh Kpassagnon | primary: Left Defensive End | Starter |
Patrick Mahomes | primary: Quarterback | Starter |
Tyrann Mathieu | primary: Strong Safety | Starter |
Derrick Nnadi | primary: Right Defensive Tackle | Starter |
Mitchell Schwartz | primary: Right Tackle | Starter |
Daniel Sorensen | primary: Cornerback | Starter |
Juan Thornhill | primary: Free Safety | Starter |
Charvarius Ward | primary: Left Cornerback | Starter |
Damien Wilson | primary: Right Linebacker | Starter |
Andrew Wylie | primary: Right Guard | Starter |
Mike Remmers | primary: Left Guard | Starter |
Demarcus Robinson | primary: Wide Receiver | Starter |
Bashaud Breeland | primary: Right Cornerback | Starter |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | primary: Runningback | Starter |
Daniel Kilgore | primary: Center | Starter |
Nick Allegretti | primary: Guard | Substitution |
Harrison Butker | primary: Kicker | Substitution |
Rashad Fenton | primary: Cornerback | Substitution |
Marcus Kemp | primary: Wide Receiver | Substitution |
Ben Niemann | primary: Linebacker | Substitution |
Dorian O'Daniel | primary: Linebacker | Substitution |
Alex Okafor | primary: Defensive End | Substitution |
Byron Pringle | primary: Wide Receiver | Substitution |
Austin Reiter | primary: Center | Substitution |
Darwin Thompson | primary: Runningback | Substitution |
Armani Watts | primary: Safety | Substitution |
Darrel Williams | primary: Runningback | Substitution |
James Winchester | primary: Long Snapper | Substitution |
Deon Yelder | primary: Tight End | Substitution |
Nick Keizer | primary: Tight End | Substitution |
Antonio Hamilton | primary: Cornerback | Substitution |
Mike Pennel | primary: Defensive Tackle | Substitution |
Ricky Seals-Jones | primary: Tight End | Substitution |
Willie Gay | primary: Linebacker | Substitution |
Bopete Keyes | primary: Cornerback | Substitution |
Tommy Townsend | primary: Punter | Substitution |
Yasir Durant | primary: Offensive Linesman | Substitution |
Tershawn Wharton | primary: Defensive Tackle | Substitution |
Taco Charlton | primary: Defensive End | Substitution |
Tedric Thompson | primary: Safety | Substitution |
Darius Harris | primary: Linebacker | Not active |
Demone Harris | primary: Defensive End | Not active |
Sammy Watkins | primary: Wide Receiver | Not active |
Chad Henne | primary: Quarterback | Did not play |
DeAndre Washington | primary: Runningback | Not active |
Le'Veon Bell | primary: Runningback | Not active |
Player | Position | Lineup |
---|---|---|
Josh Allen | primary: Quarterback | Starter |
Cole Beasley | primary: Wide Receiver | Starter |
John Brown | primary: Wide Receiver | Starter |
Dion Dawkins | primary: Left Tackle | Starter |
Tremaine Edmunds | primary: Left Linebacker | Starter |
Cody Ford | primary: Left Guard | Starter |
Jerry Hughes | primary: Left Defensive End | Starter |
Micah Hyde | primary: Strong Safety | Starter |
Tyler Kroft | primary: Wide Receiver | Starter |
Mitch Morse | primary: Center | Starter |
Ed Oliver | primary: Right Defensive Tackle | Starter |
Jordan Poyer | primary: Free Safety | Starter |
Devin Singletary | primary: Runningback | Starter |
Tre'Davious White | primary: Right Cornerback | Starter |
Josh Norman | primary: Left Cornerback | Starter |
Cam Lewis | primary: Defensive Back | Starter |
Stefon Diggs | primary: Wide Receiver | Starter |
Quinton Jefferson | primary: Left Defensive Tackle | Starter |
Daryl Williams | primary: Right Tackle | Starter |
A.J. Klein | primary: Right Linebacker | Starter |
Mario Addison | primary: Right Defensive End | Starter |
Brian Winters | primary: Right Guard | Starter |
Ryan Bates | primary: Offensive Linesman | Substitution |
Ike Boettger | primary: Guard | Substitution |
Corey Bojorquez | primary: Punter | Substitution |
Reid Ferguson | primary: Long Snapper | Substitution |
Darryl Johnson | primary: Defensive End | Substitution |
Jaquan Johnson | primary: Safety | Substitution |
Taron Johnson | primary: Cornerback | Substitution |
Siran Neal | primary: Safety | Substitution |
Ty Nsekhe | primary: Offensive Tackle | Substitution |
Lee Smith | primary: Tight End | Substitution |
Tyrel Dodson | primary: Linebacker | Substitution |
Isaiah McKenzie | primary: Wide Receiver | Substitution |
Taiwan Jones | primary: Runningback | Substitution |
A.J. Epenesa | primary: Defensive End | Substitution |
Zack Moss | primary: Runningback | Substitution |
Gabriel Davis | primary: Wide Receiver | Substitution |
Tyler Bass | primary: Kicker | Substitution |
Bryan Cox Jr. | primary: Defensive End | Substitution |
Reggie Gilliam | primary: Tight End | Substitution |
Vernon Butler | primary: Defensive Tackle | Substitution |
Tyler Matakevich | primary: Linebacker | Substitution |
Justin Zimmer | primary: Defensive Tackle | Substitution |
Andre Roberts | primary: Wide Receiver | Substitution |
Dean Marlowe | primary: Safety | Substitution |
Deon Lacey | primary: Linebacker | Substitution |
Matt Barkley | primary: Quarterback | Did not play |
Dawson Knox | primary: Tight End | Not active |
Matt Milano | primary: Linebacker | Not active |
Trent Murphy | primary: Defensive End | Not active |
Harrison Phillips | primary: Defensive Tackle | Not active |
Quinton Spain | primary: Guard | Not active |
T.J. Yeldon | primary: Runningback | Not active |
Jake Fromm | primary: Quarterback | Not active |
Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills
- Match Start
- Period 1
-
MIN 3
- scoring-play
- Touchdown
- Pass
- 11 Yards
- Conv Kicker: Harrison Butker
- Passer: Patrick Mahomes
- Pass Receiver: Travis Kelce
-
MIN 5
- scoring-play
- Field Goal
- 48 Yards
- FG Kicker: Tyler Bass
- Period 2
-
MIN 4
- scoring-play
- Touchdown
- Pass
- 12 Yards
- Passer: Patrick Mahomes
- Pass Receiver: Travis Kelce
- Conv Kicker: Harrison Butker
-
MIN 11
- scoring-play
- Touchdown
- Pass
- 4 Yards
- Pass Receiver: Stefon Diggs
- Conv Kicker: Tyler Bass
- Passer: Josh Allen
- Period 3
-
MIN 1
- scoring-play
- Touchdown
- Rush
- 13 Yards
- Rusher: Darrel Williams
- Conv Kicker: Harrison Butker
- Period 4
-
MIN 1
- scoring-play
- Field Goal
- 30 Yards
- FG Kicker: Harrison Butker
-
MIN 6
- scoring-play
- Touchdown
- Pass
- 8 Yards
- Passer: Josh Allen
- Pass Receiver: Cole Beasley
- Conv Kicker: Tyler Bass
-
MIN 9
- scoring-play
- Field Goal
- 37 Yards
- FG Kicker: Harrison Butker
- Match End
GAMES
Last 10
- @Tampa Bay L 9 - 31
- Buffalo W 24 - 38
- Cleveland W 17 - 22
- L.A. Chargers L 38 - 21
- Atlanta W 14 - 17
- @New Orleans W 32 - 29
- @Miami W 33 - 27
- Denver W 16 - 22
- @Tampa Bay W 27 - 24
- @Las Vegas W 35 - 31
- @Kansas City L 24 - 38
- Baltimore W 3 - 17
- Indianapolis W 24 - 27
- Miami W 26 - 56
- @New England W 38 - 9
- @Denver W 48 - 19
- Pittsburgh W 15 - 26
- @San Francisco W 34 - 24
- L.A. Chargers W 17 - 27
- @Arizona L 30 - 32
Last Meetings
American Football Conference
AFC East | W | L | D | PRC | GB | HOME | AWAY | PA | ST | L10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo Bills | 13 | 3 | 0 | .813 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 9-0-1 |
Miami Dolphins | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5-3 | 5-3 | 7-0-3 |
New England Patriots | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5-3 | 2-6 | 5-0-5 |
New York Jets | 2 | 14 | 0 | .125 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1-7 | 1-7 | 2-0-8 |
AFC North | W | L | D | PRC | GB | HOME | AWAY | PA | ST | L10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Steelers | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7-1 | 5-3 | 6-0-4 |
Baltimore Ravens | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5-3 | 6-2 | 6-0-4 |
Cleveland Browns | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 7-0-3 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | 11 | 1 | .267 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3-5 | 1-6 | 3-1-7 |
AFC South | W | L | D | PRC | GB | HOME | AWAY | PA | ST | L10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indianapolis Colts | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 7-0-3 |
Tennessee Titans | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5-3 | 6-2 | 6-0-4 |
Houston Texans | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 3-0-7 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 15 | 0 | .063 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1-7 | 0-8 | 1-0-10 |
AFC West | W | L | D | PRC | GB | HOME | AWAY | PA | ST | L10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | 14 | 2 | 0 | .875 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6-2 | 8-0 | 9-0-1 |
Las Vegas Raiders | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2-6 | 6-2 | 5-0-5 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 5-0-5 |
Denver Broncos | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2-6 | 3-5 | 3-0-7 |
National Football Conference
NFC East | W | L | D | PRC | GB | HOME | AWAY | PA | ST | L10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Football Team | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 6-0-4 |
Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4-4 | 2-6 | 4-0-6 |
New York Giants | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 5-0-5 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 11 | 1 | .267 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3-4 | 1-7 | 3-1-7 |
NFC North | W | L | D | PRC | GB | HOME | AWAY | PA | ST | L10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Green Bay Packers | 13 | 3 | 0 | .813 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 8-0-2 |
Chicago Bears | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3-5 | 5-3 | 3-0-7 |
Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 6-0-4 |
Detroit Lions | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 2-0-8 |
NFC South | W | L | D | PRC | GB | HOME | AWAY | PA | ST | L10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orleans Saints | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6-2 | 6-2 | 8-0-2 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5-3 | 6-2 | 7-0-3 |
Carolina Panthers | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2-6 | 3-5 | 2-0-8 |
Atlanta Falcons | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 3-0-7 |
NFC West | W | L | D | PRC | GB | HOME | AWAY | PA | ST | L10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seattle Seahawks | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7-1 | 5-3 | 7-0-3 |
Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6-2 | 4-4 | 6-0-4 |
Arizona Cardinals | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4-4 | 4-4 | 4-0-6 |
San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1-7 | 5-3 | 3-0-7 |
Last Injuries
Trends
Buffalo Trends
- TrendUnder is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.Hit %80.00% (5)O/U1|4Push0W/L
- TrendOver is 4-0-1 in Bills last 5 games as a favorite.Hit %100.00% (5)O/U4|0Push1W/L
- TrendOver is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.Hit %80.00% (5)O/U4|1Push0W/L
- TrendUnder is 5-2 in Bills last 7 games as a home underdog.Hit %71.40% (7)O/U2|5Push0W/L
Kansas City Trends
- TrendUnder is 8-2 in Chiefs last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.Hit %80.00% (10)O/U4|1Push0W/L
- TrendOver is 7-1-1 in Chiefs last 9 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.Hit %87.50% (9)O/U7|1Push1W/L
- TrendOver is 8-3 in Chiefs last 11 games as a road underdog.Hit %72.70% (11)O/U8|3Push0W/L
- TrendUnder is 5-2-1 in Chiefs last 8 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.Hit %71.40% (8)O/U2|5Push1W/L
Meetings Trends
- TrendUnder is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.Hit %69.20% (13)O/U4|9Push0W/L
- TrendChiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.Hit %30.00% (10)O/UPush0W/L3|7
- TrendRoad team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.Hit %77.80% (9)O/UPush0W/L2|7