Alabama Crimson Tide vs Indiana Hoosiers Picks and Predictions January 1st 2026

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview

Alabama Crimson Tide enter the Rose Bowl with a 10-3 record, led by QB Ty Simpson and a passing attack ranked top-10 nationally. Indiana Hoosiers stand undefeated at 13-0, powered by a dominant rushing game and opportunistic defense. This CFP quarterfinal in Pasadena sets up a clash of tradition and momentum.

Line Movement and Odds

Indiana opened as a -6.5 favorite, with market support steady. Public lean favors the Hoosiers’ balanced offense, but Alabama’s ATS record after losses has drawn sharp interest.

• Indiana Spread: -6.5 (-116)
• Alabama Spread: +6.5 (-105)
• Indiana MoneyLine: -248
• Alabama MoneyLine: +203
• Total: 48.5 (-110)

For broader market context, check the latest college football odds page.

Matchup Breakdown

Alabama Outlook

QB Ty Simpson leads the Crimson Tide with 3,268 passing yards and 24 touchdowns, supported by WR Germie Bernard’s 762 receiving yards. Alabama ranks top-10 nationally in passing and adds defensive disruption with 25 sacks and 10 interceptions. Their ability to stretch the field and pressure quarterbacks provides a path to victory.

Indiana Outlook

QB Alberto Mendoza headlines the Hoosiers’ offense, supported by RB Khobie Martin’s 453 rushing yards. Indiana ranks top-five nationally in scoring and rushing, while their defense adds 34 sacks and 12 interceptions. Their ability to sustain drives and control tempo is critical to covering the spread.

Key Matchup / Path to Victory

The game hinges on Alabama’s passing attack against Indiana’s secondary. If Simpson establishes rhythm early, Alabama controls tempo. Indiana must lean on its rushing game and defensive disruption to stay ahead.

Injuries / Availability

Alabama lists LB Jah-Marien Latham and DL Tim Keenan III questionable, while DL Jeremiah Beaman is out.

Indiana has multiple starters out, including RB Lee Beebe Jr. and WR Tyler Morris, while DB Bryson Bonds is sidelined.

Environment

The Rose Bowl provides a historic neutral-site setting, with outdoor conditions adding intrigue. Alabama’s playoff pedigree and Indiana’s undefeated run fuel intensity. Weather is expected to be clear, keeping execution sharp.

Best Bets and Prediction

Projected Final Score: Indiana 28, Alabama 25

• Alabama +6.5 → Best Bet. Strong ATS record after losses and passing efficiency give them cover potential.
• Over 48.5 → Playable. Both offenses rank top-15 nationally, pointing to a higher-scoring contest.

Expect a competitive game with Indiana’s rushing attack providing the difference, but Alabama’s resilience keeping it close. The projected score supports the underdog cover and a lean to the over.

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