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Arizona State working on identity with Texas State gunning for upset
Arizona State Sun Devils (1‑1) return home after having tumbled out of the AP Top 25 following a loss at Mississippi State. They aim to regroup this Saturday in Tempe, Ariz., as they host a buoyant Texas State Bobcats (2‑0) who are starting strong and hoping to pull off another surprise. Last season, Arizona State scraped by 31‑28 in a close game in San Marcos, thanks in part to a favorable turnover margin and late scoring.
Let the Data Do the Thinking
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Arizona State Can Win If…
- The running game dominates. Raleek Brown and Kanye Udoh combined for over 200 rushing yards vs. Mississippi State; if the Sun Devils can replicate that, they force Texas State to respect the ground threat and open up play-action or space for Sam Leavitt.
- Leavitt minimizes turnovers and plays more efficiently. He struggled with two interceptions and an off game through the air last week; cleaner passing will be essential.
- They tighten up third‑down and red‑zone defense. Texas State has shown it can move the ball, especially with Brad Jackson and his connection with Beau Sparks. If ASU can force stalled drives or turnovers in key spots, they can stay in control.
“Every team is a little bit different,” ASU coach Kenny Dillingham said. “There’s a balance. We have to find it. I think we’re trending to figure us out.”
Texas State Can Win If…
- Their offense continues flying. Jackson has looked sharp; wide receiver Beau Sparks is a big play threat, and if Jackson stays clean and gets spark plays, Texas State can keep pace.
- They exploit Arizona State’s passing inconsistencies, especially under pressure. If ASU’s offensive line or scheme allows Texas State’s defense to disrupt Leavitt, turnovers or negative situations could shift momentum.
- They carry momentum from their season‑start energy. Confidence matters, especially in non‑conference games. If they play with swagger and avoid mental mistakes, they have a chance.
“A big‑time environment against a playoff team. We’re excited for the opportunity, for sure.” Texas State coach G.J. Kinne said, mentioning NFL prospects on the ASU side to emphasize the scale of the challenge.
Key College Football Trends & Stats
| Category | Arizona State Sun Devils | Texas State Bobcats |
|---|---|---|
| Current Record | 1‑1 | 2‑0 |
| Offensive Strength | Strong rushing attack; struggle via the pass recently | Balanced offense with big‑play potential especially in pass game |
| Defensive Concern | Lapses in pass defense; third down conversion poor | Needs consistency; may give up chunks but resilient so far |
| Momentum / Psychological Edge | Need identity, bounce back after tough loss | Building confidence; riding early success |
| Historical Note / Turnovers | Won close game vs Texas State last season aided by turnover margin | Bobcats will want to flip that; have a shot if they force errors |
Recent betting previews from a similar match from a prior season suggest Texas State often get positive value as underdogs in close games vs Arizona State, especially when ASU is coming off a let‑down performance.
The Lean
Pick: Arizona State Moneyline
Alternate Lean / Value Pick: Texas State + a field goal or small spread, depending on line movement.
Projected Final Score: Arizona State 28, Texas State 24
Reasoning: Even though Texas State is surging and has momentum, Arizona State at home should have enough firepower and adjustment ability (especially in the run game) to eke out a close win. Expect a high tempo, some big plays on both sides, but ASU makes just enough plays late to seal it.
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