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Arizona vs Kansas State Picks and Predictions — September 12, 2025
The Arizona Wildcats will host the Kansas State Wildcats in a primetime nonconference battle on Friday, September 12, 2025, in Tucson, Ariz. While both schools now share the Big 12, this matchup was scheduled prior to Arizona’s conference move and will not count in league standings.
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Opening Odds: Arizona -7, Kansas State +7, Total 55.5
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The Arizona Wildcats Can Win If…
Arizona’s offense has been explosive behind quarterback Noah Fifita, who threw for 373 yards and five touchdowns in a 48-3 rout of Weber State. Fifita started 14-for-14, showcasing precision and rhythm in the passing attack.
The defense has been just as sharp, holding opponents without a touchdown through the first two weeks. If the Wildcats continue to generate pressure and force Kansas State into passing situations, Arizona should control the game.
The key: Fifita maintaining efficiency and avoiding costly turnovers while the defense keeps K-State’s run game in check.
The Kansas State Wildcats Can Win If…
Kansas State needs to regroup after a disappointing 24-21 loss to Army, where their defense was dominated in time of possession. Army ran 41 straight plays in the second half, exposing K-State’s lack of depth.
Special teams provided a spark with Bryce Noernberg’s 99-yard kickoff return TD, but the Wildcats need more from quarterback Avery Johnson and the offense to keep pace with Arizona’s firepower.
If Kansas State can limit penalties, sustain drives on the ground, and avoid defensive fatigue, they have a shot at pulling the upset.
Key Betting Trends
| Category | Arizona | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Record (2025) | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Points Per Game | 46.5 | 22.0 |
| Points Allowed | 1.5 | 27.3 |
| ATS Record | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Last Meeting | First meeting | First meeting |
The Lean
Model Projection: Arizona 34, Kansas State 20
Pick: Arizona -7
Total Lean: Under 55.5
Arizona’s balanced attack and dominant defense give them a clear edge. Kansas State’s struggles against Army’s run-heavy scheme raise questions about their ability to stop a dynamic passing offense like Arizona’s. Expect Fifita and the Wildcats to stay undefeated heading into conference play.
For more previews and college football insights, check the NCAAF picks page.
