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Arkansas State vs Arkansas Picks and Predictions — September 6, 2025
It’s history in the making as the Arkansas Razorbacks meet the Arkansas State Red Wolves for the first time ever. Saturday’s clash at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock is expected to draw a sellout crowd of over 54,000 fans, as the two top programs in the state finally collide on the gridiron.
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Arkansas enters as the heavy SEC favorite after a Week 1 blowout, while Arkansas State is hoping to shock the state with an upset that would send shockwaves through the Natural State.
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Arkansas Can Win If…
The Razorbacks rolled to a 52-7 rout of Alabama A&M in their opener, highlighted by quarterback Taylen Green’s six touchdown passes and 322 yards through the air. Importantly, Green spread the ball around, with five different receivers catching touchdowns.
Charlotte transfer O’Mega Blake made an immediate impact, hauling in seven catches for 121 yards and a score. With this depth at receiver and a confident Green under center, Arkansas’ passing game looks versatile and dangerous.
“I was proud that we were able to throw the ball to a lot of different people, get them involved,” head coach Sam Pittman said.
If the Razorbacks stay balanced offensively and avoid mistakes, they’ll control the game.
Arkansas State Can Win If…
The Red Wolves looked sharp in a 42-24 win over Southeast Missouri, with quarterback Jaylen Raynor throwing for 345 yards and three touchdowns. Raynor has grown into the system, entering his third year with confidence and command.
“You can tell by the buzz all over the state … it’s going to be a great show, for sure,” Raynor said.
For Arkansas State to keep pace, Raynor must continue his hot hand while the offensive line protects against Arkansas’ SEC-caliber defense. If the Red Wolves can hit explosive plays and limit turnovers, they’ll have a chance to make things interesting.
Key College Football Betting Trends
| Category | Arkansas Razorbacks | Arkansas State Red Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 (beat Alabama A&M 52-7) | 1-0 (beat SE Missouri 42-24) |
| QB Outlook | Taylen Green: 322 yds, 6 TD | Jaylen Raynor: 345 yds, 3 TD |
| Offensive Notes | Five different TD receivers | Balanced passing attack |
| Defensive Outlook | Allowed just 7 points | Allowed 24 in opener |
| Series History | First-ever meeting | First-ever meeting |
The Lean
Model Projection: Arkansas 45, Arkansas State 21
Pick: Arkansas – Spread
Total Lean: Over 61
The Razorbacks’ firepower, depth at receiver, and SEC pedigree should shine in this historic in-state showdown. Arkansas State has an emerging star in Raynor, but the jump in competition will be stark. For more betting analysis, head to our NCAAF Betting Predictions hub.
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