Houston vs Baylor Week 14 Betting Preview

Houston and Baylor enter their regular season finale with different stakes. Houston is already bowl eligible at 8-3, but Baylor must win to secure postseason play. Houston fell 17-14 to TCU last week despite forcing four turnovers and getting 275 yards of offense from Conner Weigman. Baylor has dropped two straight and was blown out 41-17 at Arizona. You can track real-time movement on our NCAA odds page.

Houston has played better away from home, winning all five road games. Coach Willie Fritz said there is no specific reason, pointing to a tougher home schedule. Baylor coach Dave Aranda said his team understands the urgency and expects a four-quarter fight.

Line Movement and Odds

Houston opened as a small road favorite, sitting between -2 and -2.5 most of the week. Early money has leaned Baylor, creating a slight tug-of-war across the market. Totals have trended down from an opener near 56 to the low 50s.

Current board:
• Spread: Houston -2.5
• Moneyline: Houston -142, Baylor +118
• Total: 53

Matchup Breakdown

Houston can win if it finishes drives. The Cougars moved the ball well against TCU but missed two late field goals and turned the ball over in the end zone. Weigman has been dynamic as both a passer and runner, and Houston’s defense has created turnovers consistently. Their ability to take the ball away gives them margin on the road.

Baylor needs efficiency from Sawyer Robertson. He leads the Big 12 in passing yards and ranks top five nationally. When Baylor protects him and wins first down, their offense finds rhythm. The concern is turnovers. The Bears have been prone to interceptions during their losing stretch, and Houston thrives on pressure and disguised coverage.

The trenches may decide the pace. Houston has been more physical this season, while Baylor’s run defense has slipped over the last month.

Injuries and Conditions

Houston injury notes
(No major new absences reported. Monitor late-week status updates.)

See full updates on the Houston injury report.

Baylor injury notes
(No confirmed new absences beyond routine weekly bumps. Availability may tighten closer to kickoff.)

Check full updates on the Baylor injury report.

Weather
Clear skies in Waco with mild wind. Expect a neutral environment for scoring.

Best Bets and Prediction

Houston is undefeated on the road and more stable on both sides of the ball. Baylor has a high-ceiling passing game, but turnovers and defensive inconsistency are serious concerns. The market reflects both possibilities.

Projected Score: Houston 27, Baylor 23
Best Bet: Houston -2.5
Secondary Lean: Under 53

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