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California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
The California Golden Bears host the SMU Mustangs at California Memorial Stadium in Week 14 ACC action. SMU enters at 8-3 ranked No. 21 nationally, while Cal sits at 6-5 amid coaching turmoil. Bettors will weigh the Mustangs’ playoff push against the Golden Bears’ instability in this late-season clash.
Line Movement and Odds
- SMU Spread: -13.5 (-110)
- California Spread: +13.5 (-111)
- SMU MoneyLine: -546
- California MoneyLine: +403
- Total: 53.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
SMU opened as strong favorites, reflecting their three-game win streak and Cal’s recent struggles. See full NCAAF odds for market movement.
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Matchup Breakdown
SMU Mustangs Outlook
SMU dominated Louisville 38-6 last week behind Kevin Jennings’ 303 passing yards and three touchdowns. Jennings ranks 10th nationally with 3,113 passing yards, while the Mustangs’ defense is fourth in sacks (35). Their balanced attack has fueled wins over Miami, Boston College, and Louisville. Away from home, SMU has excelled, including a 45-13 rout of Boston College. Depth across positions allows them to overcome injuries and maintain playoff aspirations.
California Golden Bears Outlook
Cal fell 31-10 to Stanford, with freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele throwing for 285 yards but struggling with turnovers. The Bears rank 31st in passing yards (2,912) and feature WR Jacob De Jesus (86 catches, 787 yards). Defensively, Cal ranks eighth in interceptions (7) and 20th in sacks (19), showing flashes of disruption. However, the firing of coach Justin Wilcox has left the program unsettled, with interim Nick Rolovich guiding them into the finale.
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
SMU must continue Jennings’ efficient passing and defensive pressure to control the game. Cal needs Sagapolutele to protect the ball and De Jesus to exploit SMU’s secondary. Turnovers and quarterback play will be decisive in this ACC clash.
Injuries / Availability
SMU Questionables: Aakil Washington (DE), Jonathan Jefferson (DT), Justin Medlock (LB), La’Modrick Spencer (CB), Alex Woods (OL), Zadian Gentry (DB), Kyle Ferm (LB), Isaiah Robertson (WR).
California Questionables: LJ Johnson Jr., Mayze Bryant, Nate Burrell, Cam Sidney, Lamar Robinson, Ryan McCulloch, Ben Marshall, Serigne Tounkara, Isaiah Crosby, Jayden Parker, Sam Bjerke. Out: Mark Hamper.
Environment
The game kicks at California Memorial Stadium, where Cal is 3-2 at home. SMU is 13-2 straight up in their last 15 road games, showing resilience away from Dallas. Expect a charged atmosphere with SMU chasing an ACC title berth.
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Best Bets and Prediction
Projected Final Score: SMU 38, California 17
- Best Bet: SMU -13.5 (-110)
SMU’s recent ATS record (3-0) and Cal’s instability suggest the Mustangs can cover comfortably. - Total: Over 53.5 (-110)
Our model projects 55 points, leaning over given both teams’ passing strengths and defensive lapses.
SMU’s playoff push and Jennings’ consistency should secure the win, while Cal’s turmoil limits their upside. Expect a decisive Mustangs victory trending over the total.
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