California Golden Bears vs Virginia Cavaliers Picks and Predictions November 1st 2025

Game Preview: Virginia vs California

The Virginia Cavaliers aim to extend their unbeaten ACC run when they travel cross-country to face the California Golden Bears on Saturday in Berkeley.

Virginia (7-1, 4-0 ACC) continues to live dangerously but effectively, with three of its last four wins coming in overtime. The Cavaliers are on a six-game winning streak after edging North Carolina 17-16 last week, surviving a failed Tar Heels two-point attempt in overtime.

The Cavaliers’ defense once again made the difference, holding North Carolina to 78 rushing yards. Offensively, Virginia leaned on running back J’Mari Taylor, who scored the game-winning touchdown in OT and leads the team with 581 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Quarterback Chandler Morris has been playing through a shoulder injury on his non-throwing arm, managing efficiency over explosiveness in recent weeks.

Virginia’s 7-1 start is its best since 2007, and it remains one of two undefeated ACC teams alongside Georgia Tech. A win here keeps the Cavaliers in full control of their path to the ACC Championship Game.

Cal (5-3, 3-2 ACC) returns home after a tough 42-34 double-overtime loss at Virginia Tech, where the Golden Bears were gashed for 357 rushing yards. Despite the setback, Cal is 3-1 at home this season and needs one more win to become bowl eligible for the third straight year under coach Justin Wilcox.

The Golden Bears have yet to defeat a ranked opponent since 2020 but feature a young offense led by freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has thrown for 1,982 yards and 11 touchdowns. Running back Kendrick Raphael (566 yards, 8 TDs) and receiver Jacob De Jesus (55 receptions, 492 yards) headline a balanced skill group.

Line Movement and Odds

Virginia opened as a 4.5-point road favorite, though sharp money has trickled toward Cal, tightening the spread to 3.5 at most sportsbooks. The total has hovered around 48.5, with early public action favoring the over.

Get the latest line moves and projections on the college football odds board and see how experts are betting this matchup on the NCAAF picks page.

Virginia Cavaliers Outlook

The Virginia Cavaliers are thriving in close games thanks to a resilient defense and opportunistic playmaking. Virginia ranks in the top 25 nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 19.1 points per game, and has forced 13 turnovers over its last six contests.

Quarterback Chandler Morris has been efficient when protected, completing 67% of his passes this season. His chemistry with wideout Trell Harris (477 yards, 4 TDs) remains key, especially as defenses load the box to contain Taylor.

Defensively, edge rusher Daniel Rickert (5.5 sacks) leads a group that’s improved dramatically against the run. Virginia’s secondary, anchored by Ja’son Prevard’s three interceptions, will be tested by Cal’s wide-open passing attack.

Virginia Injury Report

• Chandler Morris (QB) – Probable (Shoulder)
• Mike Hollins (RB) – Questionable (Ankle)
• Antonio Clary (S) – Out (Hamstring)
• Jalen Walker (CB) – Probable (Knee)

California Golden Bears Outlook

The California Golden Bears have shown offensive growth but continue to struggle defensively. The unit allowed 496 yards to Virginia Tech and ranks near the bottom of the ACC in rush defense (174.3 yards per game).

Freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele continues to flash upside, leading the ACC in pass attempts while balancing efficiency and aggressiveness. He’s paired with a dependable ground game featuring Kendrick Raphael, whose eight touchdowns rank among the conference’s best.

Cal’s defense, though inconsistent, features standout linebacker Cade Uluave (81 tackles, 10.5 TFL) and ball-hawk corner Hezekiah Masses, who leads the ACC with four interceptions. They’ll need to force turnovers early to keep Virginia’s balanced offense off-schedule.

California Injury Report

• Jaydn Ott (RB) – Questionable (Hamstring)
• Jeremiah Hunter (WR) – Questionable (Ankle)
• Brett Johnson (DL) – Out (Shoulder)
• Lu-Magia Hearns III (DB) – Probable (Undisclosed)

Key Matchup / Path to Victory

The key lies in the trenches. Virginia’s offensive line must establish a physical running game to protect Morris and sustain drives, while Cal’s front seven must tighten its gap discipline after a poor showing in Blacksburg.

For Cal, sustained offensive rhythm is essential. Sagapolutele’s quick passing and Raphael’s burst between the tackles can neutralize Virginia’s aggressive defense if the Bears avoid third-and-long situations.

Expect a physical, low-possession battle, with Virginia’s experience in close contests providing the edge late.

Betting Trends

• Virginia is 6-1 straight up in its last seven games.
• The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
• Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.
• The over is 5-2 in Cal’s last seven games.
• Virginia is 4-0 ATS vs teams with winning records.

Prediction

Cal has played better at home, but Virginia’s composure and balance on both sides of the ball make the difference. The Cavaliers have been battle-tested in tight games, and their defense should contain Cal’s freshman-led offense enough to stay perfect in ACC play.

Projected Score: Virginia 27, Cal 21
Best Bet: Virginia -3.5
Total Lean: Under 48.5

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