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Cincinnati Bearcats vs No. 14 Iowa State Cyclones Game Preview
Two Big 12 programs on different paths collide in Cincinnati. The Bearcats are looking to validate their title-game aspirations under Scott Satterfield, while Matt Campbell’s unbeaten Cyclones enter as proven contenders with a top-15 ranking. This early October clash could shape the Big 12 race.
Line Movement and Odds
Week 6 of the 2025 college football season features a key Big 12 clash as Cincinnati hosts No. 14 Iowa State at Nippert Stadium on Saturday, October 4 at 12:00 PM ET on ESPN2.
The market opened with Iowa State as a slight favorite, but early money on the Bearcats shifted the line to Cincinnati −1.5. The total opened at 53.5 and moved up to 54.5, signaling expectations of another high-scoring Big 12 contest.
Current odds:
- Moneyline: Cincinnati −121 / Iowa State +101
- Spread: Cincinnati −1.5 (−112) / Iowa State +1.5 (−108)
- Total: Over 54.5 (−108) / Under 54.5 (−112)
Track line movement and live adjustments on the NCAAF scores and odds board.
Matchup Breakdown
Iowa State enters unbeaten at 5-0 and ranked 14th in the AP Poll. Quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown for 1,103 yards and 7 touchdowns while spreading the ball to new weapons like transfer Chase Sowell, who erupted for 146 yards against Arizona. The Cyclones also feature running back Carson Hansen (315 yards), giving balance to an offense that ranks 26th nationally in scoring.
Cincinnati (3-1, 1-0 Big 12) is coming off a 37-34 road win at Kansas that showcased quarterback Brendan Sorsby. The junior passed for 388 yards and 2 TDs and added 52 rushing yards, including a clutch 4th-and-10 conversion on the game-winning drive. Wideout Cyrus Allen leads the Bearcats with 273 yards and 5 scores, while the team has leaned on a strong run game to complement Sorsby.
The Bearcats want to prove they belong in the Big 12 title hunt, while Iowa State is already a proven contender under Matt Campbell. For a full look at both rosters, visit the NCAAF teams page.
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Injuries and Conditions
Cincinnati
- Entering Week 6 with no major new injuries.
- Depth pieces along the defensive line are listed as day-to-day but expected to be available.
Iowa State
- CB Jeremiah Cooper (knee) out for the season.
- CB Jontez Williams (knee) also out for the season.
- Both were preseason All-Big 12 selections, leaving the Cyclones’ secondary vulnerable.
Weather forecast calls for mid-60s temperatures and partly cloudy skies in Cincinnati, with light winds under 7 mph. Conditions favor both passing games.
Best Bets and Prediction
This line is essentially a pick’em between two teams with high offensive ceilings. Cincinnati has the quarterback momentum with Sorsby, but Iowa State’s consistency and big-game experience under Campbell carry weight.
- Spread lean: Iowa State +1.5 — Cyclones’ offense has enough balance to stay inside the number, and Cincinnati is just 2-7 in Big 12 home games since joining.
- Total lean: Over 54.5 — Cincinnati games have averaged 64 points this season, and Iowa State has shown they can score and exploit defenses missing top secondary players.
- Projected Final: Iowa State 28, Cincinnati 27.
For expanded wagering strategies, check the expert betting guide.
Handicappers and Service Plays
Cincinnati is 2-2 ATS this year, while Iowa State is 4-1 ATS and undefeated outright. Sharps have leaned toward the Cyclones as short underdogs, with consensus plays pointing to value on Iowa State.
You can compare verified service plays and consensus data for this matchup on the college football picks page. For transparency and performance tracking, check the best handicappers leaderboard before making your final call.
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