Penn State vs Clemson Picks and Predictions – Thursday December 27, 2025

Penn State and Clemson are in a bowl most people didn’t picture for either program back in August. Both started with playoff-level expectations, both flirted with disaster, and now both show up at Yankee Stadium trying to make a messy season look a little cleaner in the final box score. Penn State is 6-6 after firing James Franklin in October, then clawing back to bowl eligibility under interim coach Terry Smith. Clemson is 7-5, finished strong, and still has Cade Klubnik playing, but they’re also dealing with a heavy wave of opt-outs and injury absences on both sides of the ball.

This is the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx, on Saturday, December 27 at 12:00 PM ET, with ABC carrying it. Bowl games are always about who’s actually available, but this one is more extreme than most. Penn State has some meaningful opt-outs, but Clemson is missing a large chunk of its two-deep, especially on defense. If you’re betting this game, you’re betting roster math and game script more than logos.

Penn State vs Clemson Odds

These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor updated college football odds leading into kickoff. Keep an eye on the latest college football odds because late bowl-week news can move a flat 3 quickly.

Team	Moneyline	Spread	Total
Penn State	+131	+3.0 (-105)	O 48.5 (-110)
Clemson	-157	-3.0 (-115)	U 48.5 (-110)

Penn State Betting Form

Penn State’s season was basically two different teams. The midseason six-game losing streak got Franklin fired, but the finish under Terry Smith has been more functional. The Rutgers win (40-36) was chaotic, yet it showed what Penn State still has even in a down year: a run game that can take over a game script and keep them out of quarterback-heavy situations. Kaytron Allen is still there, and that matters a lot given the opt-out list.

The quarterback situation is also clearer than it was a month ago. Ethan Grunkemeyer is playing, and that’s important because uncertainty at QB is the quickest way to get buried in bowl betting. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s played enough snaps to manage a plan that leans on the run game, quick throws, and field position. Penn State’s opt-outs hurt, especially along the offensive line and in the secondary, but it’s not a total teardown.

For the broader season profile and recent results, the Penn State stats and results page is the best baseline. Availability matters here too, so monitor the Penn State injury report before kickoff, especially since depth is what keeps a 6-6 team from unraveling when the game gets weird.

Clemson Betting Form

Clemson’s form is easier to understand at the surface. They salvaged the year with a four-game win streak and closed with a 28-14 win over South Carolina. Klubnik is still playing, which is the single biggest stabilizer Clemson has, and he’s treating this as a draft showcase. That tends to matter in bowls. At minimum, you get full effort from the quarterback, and you get an offense willing to push a little.

But Clemson’s availability situation is the story. Dabo Swinney has been open that between injuries and opt-outs, they’re missing a lot of starters, and the defense is especially thinned out. Losing multiple front-seven pieces and key defensive backs changes everything in a game where you’re asked to lay a field goal. Clemson can still win, but you can’t handicap them like a typical Clemson defense anymore. It becomes more about whether the offense can score enough to cover for the defense, and whether the backups can hold up against a Big Ten run game.

You can sanity-check Clemson’s season profile and tendencies on the Clemson schedule and stats page. Then treat this bowl like a separate roster from the regular season and monitor the Clemson injury report before you bet, because one extra scratch in the secondary or front can push this game into a different scoring band.

Penn State vs Clemson Matchup Breakdown

The biggest on-field edge is Penn State’s rushing attack versus what’s left of Clemson’s defense. Penn State does not need to be fancy to win this game. They can run the ball, stay ahead of the chains, and shorten it. That’s the exact style that punishes teams missing depth, because the cumulative effect shows up in the second half. If Penn State can hold up in pass protection enough to avoid obvious passing downs, the offense can be functional without needing explosive passing plays.

Clemson’s counter is Klubnik. If he’s comfortable, Clemson can keep this out of a grind. The concern is what the protection looks like against a Penn State front that can generate pressure, and whether Clemson has enough healthy or available pieces to consistently win on third down. If Clemson gets stuck in long-yardage and the run game is not efficient, it’s a lot of stress on one player.

Environment is also part of the handicap. Yankee Stadium is outdoors, and late December in New York is not neutral. Cold temperatures tighten passing efficiency and ball handling, and wind can turn kicking into an adventure. That leans toward the team that can run and the team that is less dependent on timing throws. It also creates more variance around totals, especially if either staff goes conservative early and punts from midfield instead of taking low-percentage fourth downs.

If you want a framework for how to price opt-outs, coaching turbulence, and environment in bowls, the college football betting guide is a good reset. The general sports betting strategy guide is also helpful if you’re trying to decide whether to bet early or wait for the market to stabilize around availability.

Penn State vs Clemson Predictions and Best Bets

I lean Penn State +3. This number is basically asking you to trust Clemson’s name and QB stability against a Penn State team that is still built to run and shorten games. I get why Clemson is favored, especially with Klubnik actually playing, but the defense situation makes it tough for me to lay points. If Clemson’s defense is missing seven starters and Penn State can run with any consistency, Penn State is going to be in this late.

I also think the way Penn State wants to play lines up with the bowl environment. Cold, outdoor, low rhythm early, fewer possessions. That’s where taking points tends to be the sharper default. Clemson can still win with a couple big Klubnik drives, but it’s hard to separate if you’re not getting stops.

On the total, I lean over 48.5 a bit more than I expected to when I first saw the matchup. Clemson’s defensive opt-outs create the path to Penn State scoring more efficiently than normal, and Penn State’s recent games have been higher variance. The weather could suppress some of that, so I’m not treating this like a slam-dunk over. It’s more that Clemson’s depleted defense shifts the balance away from the typical bowl under angle.

Best Bet: Penn State +3.0 (-105).

NCAAF Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats

When bowls involve this many roster changes, you want more than one opinion. Not because consensus is always right, but because it helps you catch blind spots, like how a line is being priced relative to depth. A good place to compare sides and totals across the board is today’s college football picks, especially when the market is moving late.

It also helps to track who has actually produced over time. The top sports handicappers page gives you an easy way to compare styles, and the handicapper leaderboard adds the transparency that matters when bowl narratives get noisy.

If you prefer to follow a packaged approach during bowl season, premium picks can make sense, especially if you don’t want to chase late news all day. And if you’re comparing different services across the industry, handicapper site reviews is worth reading before you commit. For more matchup coverage across the postseason slate, the NCAAF previews hub keeps the full bowl board organized.

Projected Final Score: Penn State 27, Clemson 24
Best Spread Pick: Penn State +3.0 (-105)
Total Lean: Over 48.5 (-110)