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Duke vs NC State Picks and Predictions — September 20, 2025
The Duke Blue Devils host the unbeaten NC State Wolfpack Saturday in Durham for their opening ACC matchup. Duke (1‑2, 0‑0 ACC) is reeling from two straight losses and eager to sharpen up defensively, especially in the secondary. NC State (3‑0, 1‑0 ACC) has already shown balance and strength, with QB C.J. Bailey and RB Hollywood Smothers combining to push the Wolfpack’s offense. This should be a tightly contested game given Duke’s defensive issues and NC State’s road test.
Join the Winning Side
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Opening odds:
- Spread: Duke −3.5
- Total (Over/Under): 57.5
- Moneyline: Duke favored
Want expert NCAAF betting angles & matchup breakdowns? Check out our NCAAF Best Bets section →
NC State Can Win If…
- Bailey leads with composure and minimizes mistakes. He has thrown five TDs and only one interception so far.
- Smothers continues his strong rushing output, putting pressure on Duke’s defense upfront.
- The defense of NC State forces Duke into long drives and capitalizes when Duke’s pass defense gives room.
“We haven’t played well against Duke on the road … It’s an opportunity to go play against a good football team in their stadium and play our best,” NC State coach Dave Doeren said.
Duke Can Win If…
- The secondary cleans up its coverage. Duke has allowed big plays through the air and must sharpen up its pass defense.
- Mensah and the offense find consistency. They’ve thrown well, but their red‑zone execution and rushing production need to improve.
- The defense forces turnovers. Without Sabastian Harsh in the first half (due to targeting suspension), others will need to step up early.
“The biggest thing for us right now is where we are defensively … the pass defense is far from where it was,” coach Manny Diaz said.
Key NCAAF Betting Trends
| Category | NC State Wolfpack | Duke Blue Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3‑0 overall, 1‑0 ACC | 1‑2 overall, 0‑0 ACC |
| Offensive Balance | Strong rushing + passing mix | Pass‑oriented, struggles in red zone |
| Pass Defense Issues | Vulnerable vs strong passing teams | Secondary has given up big plays |
| Turnovers | Low interception rate; careful play | Needs takeaways to shift momentum |
| Home Field Importance | NC State on the road | Duke at home, must protect home turf |
The Lean
Pick: NC State +3.5
Projected Final Score: NC State 31, Duke 28
Reasoning: NC State has shown efficiency and steadiness, especially with Bailey and Smothers producing. Duke has talent and plays at home, but defensive lapses and inexperience in key moments give NC State a live chance. Over 57.5 has appeal if both offenses stay aggressive, though the margin will be tight.
Best Bet Box
| Best Bet Category | Selection |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | NC State +3.5 |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★☆☆ |
| Projected Final Score | NC State 31, Duke 28 |
| Total Lean | Over 57.5 |
